CL Redux

Well, I'm gonna pat myself on the back. Time was (i.e., last week) I would trade the hell out of a day like today based on my vague beliefs about "she looks like she's gonna go up/down" and end up down $200 to $500 in 20 trades. Today I traded CL once and YM once and made $430.

I think I'm starting to solidify this whole trader's mindset thing. Or at least I've decided to talk to myself as if I have and hope that the part of me listening catches up to the part of me talking.
 
POLL - Oil prices to ease in H2 as disruption fears wane

http://in.reuters.com/article/2011/04/21/idINIndia-56491120110421

Reuters) - Crude oil prices are expected to fall to an average of $108 a barrel in the third quarter, a Reuters poll showed on Thursday, as analysts expect current highs around $124 to dent demand and economic growth.

"In our base case, prices remain elevated in the second quarter this year but correct downwards in the second half, as prices start to impact demand and markets appear oversupplied." Credit Agricole CIB analyst Christophe Barret said.

"We have Brent prices returning to $85 a barrel in the second half of 2011."
<b><< this analyst guy is a moran if he thinks $85 Brent in this year >>> </b>


- For the second quarter, prices will average $104.63 a barrel from $99.84 a barrel;
- while on the third quarter they will average $100.81 a barrel from $98.53 a barrel.

"In our base case, prices remain elevated in the second quarter this year but correct downwards in the second half, as prices start to impact demand and markets appear oversupplied." Credit Agricole CIB analyst Christophe Barret said.

Brent was trading at about $124 and U.S. crude was just below $112 on Thursday.

<b>
"We continue to expect that there will be no further disruption to oil supply despite the ongoing political uncertainty in North Africa and the Middle East," said Caroline Bain from the Economist Intelligence Unit.

"This will mean that the risk premium in the market will start to fade in the second half of 2011," adding that the strong prices could lead to some rationing in the first half of the year.
</b>

DOWNWARD CORRECTION ON THE CARDS

Analysts expect the geopolitical price premium associated with potential disruptions in other oil producing countries in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) could wane, bringing crude futures back towards $100 a barrel.

"Risks are still skewed to the upside but if price gains pick up pace and remain at lofty levels for prolonged periods, the ultimate impact should be dampening demand and subsequent downside oil price corrections," Daniel Hwang from Gain Capital
 
Quote from DonCorleone:

thanks for the enlightenment. i thought it was forming a bearish flag until it broke above .60. how do you determine if it's one not the other?
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I'd drawn the same channel (potential bear flag) as EON posted. I know what a HnS is, but have never used it or thought about it.

I keep a 20-bar EMA on my chart, and when I noticed the flag and drew the lines, 3 bars in a row had closed above the 20 EMA at the upper channel line (10:15, 10:20 and 10:25am ET bars).

To me, this was a strong signal that instead of a bear flag, we possibly had a confirmed intraday trend reversal in progress. There were a couple solid long zones at which to enter - buy a touch to the lower line (strong support previously established around 111.20), or buy as price breaks the 20 EMA if it finds support at the lower line (long above .45 at the time). A channel breakout to the upside would be expected at that point with 112.00 previous resistance in play as a target zone.

Quote from Blotto:

Why do traders here want to buy such a weak market? Some are averaging down when the position has gone against them.
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I agree that it's all a matter of perception and what you're watching.

At the time you posted this, I was focused on long entries. I thought the price action was very stable and indicated upside continuation out of the range to me. I liked the consolidation range with a base being well-defended above the deep lower trend line (across the 10:00am and 11:20am bar lows).

My only loss was a short during that period.

I'd scratched a long taken around 1:00pm ET, went long again at 1:24 off internal double bottom support @ 111.57 for a .30 ride, got trapped like dumb rat selling a low by shorting the break of the 20 EMA off the lower high during the 1:35 bar, and quickly returned to my senses and went long during the 1:50 bar for the breakout and another .30 ride.
 
Quote from NoDoji:

and quickly returned to my senses and went long during the 1:50 bar for the breakout and another .30 ride. [/B]
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I wanted to play the possible triangle break there as well, but I couldn't decide where to put a stop for a clean get-away. And then I wasn't sure where to put a stop loss if I were to pre-position. So, good trade, I couldn't figure that one out.
 
Quote from Holey Grail:

I wanted to play the possible triangle break there as well, but I couldn't decide where to put a stop for a clean get-away. And then I wasn't sure where to put a stop loss if I were to pre-position. So, good trade, I couldn't figure that one out.
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I can't tell you how, or at what price, I entered this trade or I'd have to kill you :p :p :p
 
Quote from Eddiemorra:

I often hear that the best traders dont use charts or TA, but then I wonder what one should use in their place? I had no luck just trading off of the dom.t+s, and I fail to see how one can trade intraday from looking at fundamentals?

All you guys trade CL from a chart/ta/price action?
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I trade purely off a chart using price action, S/R and trend lines/20 ema. I've occasionally lost my chart connection and traded off the DOM, but I'm creating the charts in my head while doing that, so it's still a chart :D

CL is the most technical instrument I've ever traded.

What would you base intraday trades on if not a) the direction price is going, or b) the last price where one side overwhelmed the other side (S/R), or c) pictures of shapes (triangles, flags, diamonds, cleavage) or creatures (dragons, geckos, Moammar Ghadafi) that you see as you look at the charts?

Wait...

...there ARE other methods, I totally forgot:

Schizo uses a broken crystal ball and I'm pretty sure Picaso uses the Magic Eight Ball:

http://web.ics.purdue.edu/~ssanty/cgi-bin/eightball.cgi
 
2011-04-21-TOS_CHARTS-1.png


What's up everyone, I hope all are well. Here was my day in a nutshell. I've been doing some work with times of the day, which has been helping me nail down decent times to trade / avoid on the CL. As of right now I've decided to hold any position that I'm in for the duration of the 7 - 8, which served me well today. Yesterday I only got 2 signals, which leads me to believe that I have more work to do in ID'ing trending days. I think I am preparing a second setup as well, but it currently only backtests so-so. Lastly, I rarely get sell signals with my setup, which again makes me wonder if shorts just setup differently than longs, or maybe the longer term trend being up might cause this behavior. Anyway, trade results for today were as follows:

1. I held expecting a rip and got punched. I had started to move my stop up a bit, it was a -5.

2. I got taken out after trailing swings.

3. This is one of the greatest setups of all time. It's my favorite setup to trade on the ES as well. A shallow break of the daily low, and then volume pours in and the faces begin to melt. Holding this one from 7-8 was a huge savior, otherwise I would have been shaken out way too early.

4. This was an impulse trade I took, just trying to read the volume spike that had just showed up. I was taken out at b/e.

5. At this point I was ignoring shorts. The last two trades of the day were straightforward.
 
Quote from bigsnack:

2011-04-21-TOS_CHARTS-1.png


What's up everyone, I hope all are well. Here was my day in a nutshell. I've been doing some work with times of the day, which has been helping me nail down decent times to trade / avoid on the CL. As of right now I've decided to hold any position that I'm in for the duration of the 7 - 8, which served me well today. Yesterday I only got 2 signals, which leads me to believe that I have more work to do in ID'ing trending days. I think I am preparing a second setup as well, but it currently only backtests so-so. Lastly, I rarely get sell signals with my setup, which again makes me wonder if shorts just setup differently than longs, or maybe the longer term trend being up might cause this behavior. Anyway, trade results for today were as follows:

1. I held expecting a rip and got punched. I had started to move my stop up a bit, it was a -5.

2. I got taken out after trailing swings.

3. This is one of the greatest setups of all time. It's my favorite setup to trade on the ES as well. A shallow break of the daily low, and then volume pours in and the faces begin to melt. Holding this one from 7-8 was a huge savior, otherwise I would have been shaken out way too early.

4. This was an impulse trade I took, just trying to read the volume spike that had just showed up. I was taken out at b/e.

5. At this point I was ignoring shorts. The last two trades of the day were straightforward.
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I did some tests a few years ago , the U S open at U k time 13.30 , New York 8.30 produced the most profitable trades , the European morning sessions were not as profitable.Which times do you find best?
 
felt lost today. damn it, good friday. just wish crude was now dancing on my screen.

the 1-2-3 waltz is the best. 1 2 3 . 1 2 3. ...trading is the best fun
 
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