http://www.marketwatch.com/story/brent-crude-poised-for-17-pullback-analysts-2011-04-12
April 12, 2011, 11:44 a.m. EDT
Brent crude poised for 17% pullback: analysts
Goldman recommends closing out of CCCP basket trade
SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) â Brent crude futures may be poised for a 17% pullback in the coming months, after closing last week above $126 a barrel, because of ample supplies and spare capacity from major oil producers, analysts at Goldman Sachs said Tuesday.
Brent crude-oil prices rallied Friday to finish at $126.12 per barrel on ICE Futures in London. Thatâs well above Fridayâs close at $112.79 a barrel for May crude on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Read Fridayâs oil story.
<b>Broader call
In a broader call Monday, the Goldman analysts told clients that the near-term risk-reward for the CCCP [crude oil, copper, cotton, soybeans and platinum] trade âno longer favors being long the basketâ and recommended closing the position for a 25% return versus a 28% target.
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The analysts said the CCCP basket still has upside potential on a 12-month horizon and thereâs still âsignificant upsideâ in soybean prices, but copper and platinum will face ânear-term headwinds as higher oil prices potentially translate into a negative demand shock for the metals as these commodities are exposed to supply chain problems resulting from the earthquakes in Japan.â
Copper, as well, remains âvulnerable to slowingâ demand as high prices and tight credit motivate tight inventory management from China, a key consumer, they said.
âWe are closing our long copper and platinum trades, but even in these commodities the structural supply-side story remains intact and we would look for new entry points to establish new longs,â they said.