CL Redux

Libya
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1/ Oil rose as much as 1% as Al Arabiya television reported that NATO said forces loyal to Muammar Qaddafi caused a fire at the field.

-- Abdeljalil Mayuf, a manager of information for the Arabian Gulf Oil Co., which manages the Sarir field, said the facility had been attacked by Qaddafi loyalists and not by a British jet, according to Reuters. Bloomberg's attempts today to reach the company by telephone were unsuccessful.

"It looks like Qaddafi's forces are beginning to implement a scorched-earth policy," said Phil Flynn, vice president of research at PFGBest in Chicago. "Some of our worst fears are being realized."

Libya's current crude output is between 250,000 and 300,000 barrels a day, all of which goes to domestic refineries and to meet local consumption, Shokri Ghanem, chairman of the state-run National Oil Corp., said in a telephone interview from Tripoli.


2/ Prices briefly slipped after a magnitude 7.1 earthquake hit 215 miles (345 kilometers) northeast of Tokyo,

"The road to recovery in Japan has just become harder," said Carl Larry, president of Oil Outlooks & Opinions LLC in Houston. "Japan doesn't seem safe and we will see more expats leaving the country. Economic growth will take another hit, which is detrimental for demand."
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Cracking crude OIL gives these components
<img>
Crude_Oil_Distillation.png
</img>
 
Quote from Notes123:

After the pit closes, would someone post her monster winner please? like this one: went long at 108.42 and sold at 110.42, I knew oil would break up, so I held my winner and got 2 points profit.
More...

Quote from Notes123:

jesus, you are PAPER trading!

switching sides? you can do Olympic gymnastics and it won't mean anything.

ok, I am still waiting for the 2-point winner (longed 108.42, sold 110.42).
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If your intention is to make contribution that would benefit this place, you're most welcome. But as I see it, most of your gratuitous remarks are pointless, and they certainly do not comply with even the most simple rules that I mentioned at the outset of this thread. Now let's keep it under control.

To everyone else:

IF YOU FIND OFFENSIVE POSTS FROM THIS SPECIFIC POSTER IN THE FUTURE, USE THE COMPLAIN LINK AND WRITE "THREAD RULE VIOLATION".
 
Quote from Notes123:

After the pit closes, would someone post her monster winner please? like this one: went long at 108.42 and sold at 110.42, I knew oil would break up, so I held my winner and got 2 points profit.
More...

You are a real piece of work. I posted helpful stuff on your thread a while back and you seemed to be a considerate person:

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=216483&perpage=10&pagenumber=2

What happened? I spend time with a lot of newer traders sharing ideas and even though you admitted in your thread that you're struggling, your solution is to turn into one of the Mean People?

Tell you what, I did think oil would break upside out of narrow range consolidation between 12:00-12:30pm eastern time. Why? Because my mentor never quit reminding me to always think continuation in a trending move. I calculated the measured move target out of that consolidation, a very simple concise process of adding the previous move's range to the pivot support level leading into the consolidation period. The target was 110.19.

My trading is my business, literally and figuratively, so where I entered and exited my trades today will remain with me.

All the best to you.
 
1/ <b>DEMAND WORRIES</b>

As expected, the European Central Bank (ECB) lifted interest rates for the first time since the 2008 financial crisis and signaled readiness to tighten further if needed.

Dealers said markets may wobble as other central banks remove easy-money policies.

"At current crude oil prices, the risk is turning more and more to the amount of potential demand destruction,' Petromatrix analyst Olivier Jakob said.

2/ <b>RISE in EURO zone rates,</b>

Investors also cited worries over high euro zone debt levels and inflation as Portugal asked for an European Union bailout. <b>A rise in euro zone rates would push up the cost of debt for countries already highly indebted.</b>

3/ <b>Brent/WTI</b>
Brent crude for May delivery rose for a sixth day, settling 37 cents higher at $122.67

U.S. May crude futures closed up $1.47 at $110.30 a barrel,


Brent crude for May delivery rose for a sixth day, settling 37 cents higher at $122.67 a barrel, the highest since August 4, 2008.

U.S. May crude futures closed up $1.47 at $110.30 a barrel, the best since September 22, 2008, <b>gaining for the fifth day in six sessions.</b>


Brent's premium against U.S. crude, also known as West Texas Intermediate (WTI), narrowed to $12.37 at the close, after ending at $13.47 on Wednesday.


Trading volumes remained lean. In London, Brent crude volume was 396,378 lots, 17 percent below the 30-day average at 3:10 p.m. EDT.
In New York, U.S. crude volume hit 585,932, 9 percent below the 30-day average, with two hours left for trading.


U.S. crude rose after U.S. data showed claims for unemployment benefits fell, adding to signs of a strengthening labor market.
 
Quote from schizo:

If your intention is to make contribution that would benefit this place, you're most welcome. But as I see it, most of your gratuitous remarks are pointless, and they certainly do not comply with even the most simple rules that I mentioned at the outset of this thread. Now let's keep it under control.

To everyone else:

IF YOU FIND OFFENSIVE POSTS FROM THIS SPECIFIC POSTER IN THE FUTURE, USE THE COMPLAIN LINK AND WRITE "THREAD RULE VIOLATION".
More...

Personally I'm putting him on ignore ...he brings nothing except pot shots at everyone else.
 
Quote from NoDoji:

You are a real piece of work. I posted helpful stuff on your thread a while back and you seemed to be a considerate person:

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=216483&perpage=10&pagenumber=2

What happened? I spend time with a lot of newer traders sharing ideas and even though you admitted in your thread that you're struggling, your solution is to turn into one of the Mean People?

Tell you what, I did think oil would break upside out of narrow range consolidation between 12:00-12:30pm eastern time. Why? Because my mentor never quit reminding me to always think continuation in a trending move. I calculated the measured move target out of that consolidation, a very simple concise process of adding the previous move's range to the pivot support level leading into the consolidation period. The target was 110.19.

My trading is my business, literally and figuratively, so where I entered and exited my trades today will remain with me.

All the best to you.
More...

Hey NoDoji, I read that thread just now, you gave Notes123 some v good advice (as did some others). V disappointing that Notes is less than grateful.

Note to Notes123, I suggest you immediately apologise.

Btw NoDoji, did you see my call for 110 to be reached for the day? :D
 
ouch - - looking like oil is going to be very very expensive soon and I need to buy a lot of it soon as it heats my house!
Relentless rallying!
Hope you weren't hurt too badly, Startraitor.
 
Trichet Leaves Door Open to More Interest-Rate Increases to Tame Inflation


http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-...nterest-rate-increases-to-tame-inflation.html

European Central Bank (ECB) President Jean-Claude Trichet left the door open for further interest-rate increases to tame inflation after raising borrowing costs for the first time in almost three years.

Inflation risks remain on the upside and the ECB’s monetary policy is still “accommodative,” Trichet said at a press conference in Frankfurt after lifting the benchmark rate by a quarter percentage point to 1.25 percent. While “we did not decide it was the first in a series of interest-rate increases, you know from our own doctrine that we always do what is necessary to deliver price stability over the medium term,” he said.

The ECB is balancing the need for tighter policy in countries like Germany, whose economy is booming, against the risk that higher rates could exacerbate the sovereign debt crisis afflicting peripheral euro-area nations. While bonds erased declines and the euro initially fell after Trichet’s comments as some investors pared bets on rapid rate increases, markets still expect the ECB to raise its benchmark to 1.75 percent by the end of the year, Eonia forward contracts show.

“Trichet retained a relatively hawkish tone but the market has already priced in so much and there was nothing in there to extend that theme,” said Jane Foley, a senior foreign exchange strategist at Rabobank International in London. Trichet “is paving the way for further rate rises but he’s also clearly unwilling to commit the Governing Council to pre-announcing rate hikes”

<b>Yields Decline </b>
The yield on two-year German notes, typically more sensitive to interest-rate expectations, fell as much as three basis points and was one basis point lower at 1.83 percent as of 2:56 p.m. in London. The euro, which fell as much as 0.6 percent, recouped its losses to trade at $1.43.

<b>The ECB joins central banks in China, India, Poland and Sweden in raising interest rates</b> even as the Federal Reserve remains reluctant to tighten amid divisions among its policy makers. The Bank of England and the Bank of Japan today left their key rates unchanged at 0.5% and 0.1% respectively.

Today’s ECB increase is the first since July 2008 and also the first time in <b>40 years that Europe’s benchmark has risen before the U.S. equivalent. </b>

Inflation breached the ECB’s 2 percent limit in December and accelerated to 2.6 percent last month, the fastest pace in more than two years.

<b>Broad-Based Pressures </b>
While ECB officials acknowledge that <b>surging energy and food prices are largely to blame, they’re worried that workers will demand higher wages in compensation, entrenching faster inflation. </b>

“It is essential that recent price developments do not give rise to broad-based inflationary pressures over the medium term,” Trichet said.

The ECB has repeatedly been forced to delay the withdrawal of emergency policy settings enacted during the global financial crisis as Europe’s debt woes threatened to tear the 17-nation currency bloc apart. It is still providing banks with unlimited liquidity and has kept its bond-purchase program in place.

Portugal last night became the third euro-area nation after Greece and Ireland to succumb to the region’s debt crisis and seek a European Union bailout. Trichet said the ECB “encouraged Portugal to ask for support.”

<b>German Strength </b>
While nations such as Ireland and Spain are still buckling under debt burdens and burst property bubbles, Germany’s economy last year expanded 3.6 percent, the most since reunification two decades ago.

“The ECB is setting rates in relation to Germany,” said Vicky Pryce, managing director of FTI Consulting Inc in London and a former adviser to the U.K. government. “It’s a bold move, but a wrong one,” she said, adding Greece, Ireland, Portugal and possibly Spain “need a rate increase like a hole in the head.”

On aggregate, the region has returned to health. Euro-area growth will average 1.7 percent this year and 1.8 percent in 2012, according to ECB forecasts.

“Recent economic data confirm that the underlying momentum of economic activity continues to be positive,” Trichet said. “We will continue to monitor very closely all developments with respect to upside risks to price stability.”

The phrase “monitor very closely” was “used in the previous rate-hike cycle to signal that a hike could come as early as the meeting after next,” said Nick Kounis, chief European economist at ABN Amro in Amsterdam. “Our base scenario is that interest rates will rise again in July.”

Ken Wattret, chief euro-area economist at BNP Paribas SA in London, said the ECB could raise rates again as soon as June.

Trichet’s comment that the ECB hasn’t decided that today’s move is the start of a series of increases “is not the same as saying that it will not be one,” Wattret said.
 
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