CL Redux
- Thread starter schizo
- Start date
I was having back to back scratch trades early on and decided, oh no another choppy range day. Seemed like if there was a S/R level in line to be tested, it surely would be and so I was placing hard .20 targets if that price was very close to the S/R level in play. I did have quite a few scratch trades, but several .20's filled.
I had only a couple trades where there was a key level in play that appeared might offer more than .20: A pullback long entry @ 108.19, off the 10:50am ET bar pivot. A hard .20 target @ .39 made no sense because it was near .40 which was in line to break for a new high, so I ended up with .25 out of that breakout which sold right off. Then there was a pullback short entry @ 108.22 off the 2nd lower high at 12:30pm. I had a hard .20 target because 108.03 was such a key level that had held earlier in the day. Price hit 108.03 to the tick (within 1 tick of my target), moved up a few ticks, then stalled. I figured if it came back and broke 108.03, then it would head lower, maybe even try for the low. So I got a bit more than .20 out of that one.
My stops were all 16 ticks or less today. That's the nice thing about lack of volatility, small stops. Down side is we haven't had any 1-2 point runners in a while
Well I hope it's not frowned on, but here's another post mortem chart. I couldn't make sense of the morning, and got pretty rattled by the 3 scratches in a row. The chop has been making me take trades that don't match my setup, so I still have that to work on with the CL. I finally caught a decent trade, and then felt a bit lost again until just before 11.
Oh, and I was poking around youtube for "live CL trades", and caught wind of a great channel, where this guy has been posting his trades that are based off of his broker telling him what to do. All the entries are based on PA and volume, and they are killer. Very cool, and very simple. No, I don't know this guy, and I have no affiliation with the mystery broker either.
http://www.youtube.com/user/SimpleAndHard
http://www.youtube.com/user/SimpleAndHard
With this if the price pops up to 108.50 level in the asian session TON of people are waiting to short this one for good downside ( count me too) .
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http://www.marketwatch.com/story/api-shows-surprise-weekly-decline-for-oil-supplies-2011-04-05
April 5, 2011, 4:39 p.m. EDT
API shows surprise weekly decline for oil supplies
SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Crude-oil inventories declined 2.8 million barrels, the American Petroleum Institute said late Tuesday.
Analysts polled by Platts had expected the data to show crude-oil inventories up by 1.3 million barrels for the week ended April 1.
The trade group also reported gasoline stocks up 568,000 barrels; that compared to analyst expectations of a decline by 2.1 million barrels.
Stocks of distillates, which include heating oil and diesel, declined 1 million barrels, the API said. Analysts had expected to rise by 600,000 barrels
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http://www.marketwatch.com/story/api-shows-surprise-weekly-decline-for-oil-supplies-2011-04-05
April 5, 2011, 4:39 p.m. EDT
API shows surprise weekly decline for oil supplies
SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Crude-oil inventories declined 2.8 million barrels, the American Petroleum Institute said late Tuesday.
Analysts polled by Platts had expected the data to show crude-oil inventories up by 1.3 million barrels for the week ended April 1.
The trade group also reported gasoline stocks up 568,000 barrels; that compared to analyst expectations of a decline by 2.1 million barrels.
Stocks of distillates, which include heating oil and diesel, declined 1 million barrels, the API said. Analysts had expected to rise by 600,000 barrels
NoDoji's posts have been very helpful for me, so I don't really care whether the results she posts are 100% true and accurate or not. Her reported results don't change the fact that she's helped me understand the market.
Quote from NoDoji:
You need to work on your entries and exits, man! I shorted 107.82 and covered @ 106.32! I'd post my time & sales blotter but, uh...ummm...I'm having technical difficulties.
Notes123, were you thinking this was a real trade?
I was poking fun at our (formerly) resident post-hoc trade poster
I've sold plenty of low ticks and bought plenty of high ticks. But that's what stops are for!
I viewed some of the videos on this site. Great stuff, exactly the way I trade, except for the scaling in part. So yesterday I was all gung-ho and ready to scale into a winning trade if presented. First trade of the day, pre-market, I'm short and price is coming in to a level that I feel will take us to (and through) the overnight low. I place a sell stop to add to my winner and I place it in a nice confirmed area, not an obvious area, so I don't get head-faked. Well, everyone and their grandmother must've had the same thought because I got slipped 4 or 5 ticks on tiny size :eek: Price breaks the low in pretty short order, but it's a really weak-ass b/o, so I exit the whole thing for b/e on the add and almost .20 on the initial (got slipped on exit, too).
Then price retraces just to my break even level and breaks out again to lower lows, without me. If I moved my stop to just above the break even of the combined position, I'd have been in the trade for the second b/o, but I couldn't stand the thought of letting a profit totally reverse.
I'm not good at this scaling in thing. I sucked at it when I practiced in sim and I suck at it now. Not to say I can't improve, but I do prefer all in/all out trading at this point.
I'm with you on this. I am so much more inclined to scale OUT, even though I know I shouldn't because it hurts my bottom line. I'm still a 2 lot trader, and will probably only trade 1 on the CL for quite some time once I give it a go, so I don't have too much to worry about.
I'm glad you checked out the videos though, I thought they were a great watch!