some on Syria to understand US role etc..
http://www.cnn.com/2011/WORLD/meast/03/28/syria.al.assad/index.html?iref=allsearch
Syria's long-term alliance with Iran and its sponsorship of the Hezbollah militia in neighboring Lebanon are also sensitive issues at home. Some reports from Daraa say protesters have raised their voices against both. Syrian officials quoted in U.S. cables say Hezbollah is a legitimate resistance movement and part of the overall Middle East peace process. In other words -- Syria's (and Iran's) insurance card against Israel.
In 2009, the top U.S. diplomat in Damascus sharply criticized Syria's alleged delivery of ballistic missiles to Hezbollah.
"Syria's actions have created a situation in which miscalculation or provocative behavior by Hezbollah could prove disastrous for Syria and the broader region," he wrote. Other cables suggest constant juggling by al-Assad as he tries to keep the alliance with Iran intact while not closing the door to negotiations with Israel.
Fawaz Gerges at the London School of Economics says Syria is a critical regional player. "Instability in Syria means there will be instability in Lebanon, which is a divided country along sectarian lines."
Iran, too, would be affected were Assad to go, he said: "Syria is a critical player that supports a non-Arab state. The West has tried to wean Syria off Iran but has failed."
Barak Seener, a research fellow with the Royal United Services Institute in London, agrees that events in Syria could alter the Middle East landscape.
"A liberal democratic Syria would be more susceptible to peace with Israel, irrespective of the status of the Golan Heights," he said. "In light of the opposition that removed Mubarak, it is questionable whether peace can be made with autocratic leaders that can be removed and not with liberal societies."
Seener says the violence so far does not threaten the regime's existence but "will embolden the majority-Sunni population and Kurdish minority, who deeply resent the political dominance of the Alawi minority, to protest." Al-Assad is an Alawite.
But so far, none of Syria's major cities has seen the sort of unrest witnessed in Daraa. Some Syria-watchers say al-Assad may even turn the crisis to his advantage by pushing through reform despite the hardliners and bureaucratic inertia.
He may also benefit from a fractured opposition. Syrian analyst Murhaf Jouejati at George Washington University says that civil society has been stifled by decades of emergency rule. "The protesters are not organized. The opposition is fragmented," he said. "Civil society is not developed enough to be a counterweight to the state" even if intellectuals leading the opposition enjoy a certain amount of moral authority.
Other analysts say the sudden announcement of extensive concessions smacks of panic, and that endemic corruption and high unemployment are beyond the government's capacity to fix. In addition, as the International Crisis Group notes, "as a result of events elsewhere in the region, a new awareness and audacity have materialized over the past several weeks in myriad forms of rebelliousness." Fear, if not gone, is no longer so pervasive.
http://www.cnn.com/2011/WORLD/meast/03/28/syria.al.assad/index.html?iref=allsearch
Syria's long-term alliance with Iran and its sponsorship of the Hezbollah militia in neighboring Lebanon are also sensitive issues at home. Some reports from Daraa say protesters have raised their voices against both. Syrian officials quoted in U.S. cables say Hezbollah is a legitimate resistance movement and part of the overall Middle East peace process. In other words -- Syria's (and Iran's) insurance card against Israel.
In 2009, the top U.S. diplomat in Damascus sharply criticized Syria's alleged delivery of ballistic missiles to Hezbollah.
"Syria's actions have created a situation in which miscalculation or provocative behavior by Hezbollah could prove disastrous for Syria and the broader region," he wrote. Other cables suggest constant juggling by al-Assad as he tries to keep the alliance with Iran intact while not closing the door to negotiations with Israel.
Fawaz Gerges at the London School of Economics says Syria is a critical regional player. "Instability in Syria means there will be instability in Lebanon, which is a divided country along sectarian lines."
Iran, too, would be affected were Assad to go, he said: "Syria is a critical player that supports a non-Arab state. The West has tried to wean Syria off Iran but has failed."
Barak Seener, a research fellow with the Royal United Services Institute in London, agrees that events in Syria could alter the Middle East landscape.
"A liberal democratic Syria would be more susceptible to peace with Israel, irrespective of the status of the Golan Heights," he said. "In light of the opposition that removed Mubarak, it is questionable whether peace can be made with autocratic leaders that can be removed and not with liberal societies."
Seener says the violence so far does not threaten the regime's existence but "will embolden the majority-Sunni population and Kurdish minority, who deeply resent the political dominance of the Alawi minority, to protest." Al-Assad is an Alawite.
But so far, none of Syria's major cities has seen the sort of unrest witnessed in Daraa. Some Syria-watchers say al-Assad may even turn the crisis to his advantage by pushing through reform despite the hardliners and bureaucratic inertia.
He may also benefit from a fractured opposition. Syrian analyst Murhaf Jouejati at George Washington University says that civil society has been stifled by decades of emergency rule. "The protesters are not organized. The opposition is fragmented," he said. "Civil society is not developed enough to be a counterweight to the state" even if intellectuals leading the opposition enjoy a certain amount of moral authority.
Other analysts say the sudden announcement of extensive concessions smacks of panic, and that endemic corruption and high unemployment are beyond the government's capacity to fix. In addition, as the International Crisis Group notes, "as a result of events elsewhere in the region, a new awareness and audacity have materialized over the past several weeks in myriad forms of rebelliousness." Fear, if not gone, is no longer so pervasive.
