CL Redux

Quote from InvestVision:



Need to focus more on KEY levels ( support , resistance ) in addition to your Baises ..
- on the KEY levels front BCE done very good job of identifying them and pointing to the community in a timely manner .

thanks BCE keep up this kind of good work ..
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You're welcome. Missed too many of these myself, although I did catch some. Imagining NoDoji did quite well today as it did trade strongly off of the pivots and other s/r levels.

ADD One other thing I think is that "biases" can get you in trouble. I think it's okay to pay attention to various reports, news, etc. But the problem is we think our interpretation of what's up is the correct one. And if our interpretation isn't the same as the other market participants we get in trouble. We're then fighting the trend. And as anyone paying attention to this thread in particular knows, that gets us in trouble. Better to just trade off PA and s/r and pivots, whole dollar amounts, etc. Hard to swing trade this now. My 2 cents.
 
Quote from Totalizator:

I am sticking to intraday stuff. If I hold overnight it will bevery small size!!!
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Sorry about your loss, TZ. I've been there on many a swing trade in my earlier days of trading.

For me "swing trade" used to mean "I think price has run too far and has to come back soon, so I'm going to hold this trade until it does or until I'm forced to puke up sizable chunks of my account when it really, really doesn't".

I only day trade now. :cool:
 
Quote from oraclewizard77:

I was trying to see some correlation between ES and CL today, but really there was not one today.
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I've mentioned this before, and sometimes it seems to be there. But then they both do their own thing apart from one another. I learned this a while ago as I was trying to trade CL that way and it didn't work. When I trade TF it does it's own thing too but not totally disconnected from the other index futures.

"No, CL lives in a cave far from civilization. It answers to no index!"
~ NoDoji ~
 
Quote from BCE:

You're welcome. Missed too many of these myself, although I did catch some. Imagining NoDoji did quite well today as it did trade strongly off of the pivots and other s/r levels.
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Hey guys, good day, I traded very much with the trend, waiting patiently for setups, and that paid off well

I missed that late day drop to new lows because I didn't have my stop order placed in advance. I've been annoyed by the slippage when levels break, so I've been cheating on entries. Earlier I was certain I sold a low tick by cheating when I realized I sold the low of a small narrow range, but it amazingly didn't hit break the upper end and turned out to be a good trade.

So later I thought I'd wait for more confirmation just to be safe, maybe a close back down thru the 20 EMA, then I suddenly thought no, I should short after all right now to avoid slippage and no sooner did I place what I thought was a marketable limit order, the price just fell off the DOM. Then I didn't trust shorting it, because the bounces have been pretty strong lately.
 
Quote from BCE:



ADD One other thing I think is that "biases" can get you in trouble. I think it's okay to pay attention to various reports, news, etc. But the problem is we think our interpretation of what's up is the correct one. And if our interpretation isn't the same as the other market participants we get in trouble. We're then fighting the trend. And as anyone paying attention to this thread in particular knows, that gets us in trouble. Better to just trade off PA and s/r and pivots, whole dollar amounts, etc. Hard to swing trade this now. My 2 cents.
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Just wanted to repost this as I think it's important.

BBIB Lunch time.
 
The day I quit swing trading was in 08 when my rules said I should be short overnight. I disobeyed my rules (had a bad feeling market was going to gap up big)and decided to not enter short. Well the ES gapped up at open almost 60 points. I am sure most of you remember that. That was when I quit swing trading.
 
- Both KEY S/R levels and Biases have their own place in trading.

- Biases are of two types , ones based on "Channels/Chart patterns" and ones bases on fundamental understanding of the under lying instrument ( oil here )
- what I mean Biases is not just you forming an opinion based on the news just read but a continuous following of all the Fundamentals about the instrument ( oil here) over days to week and forming an bias which is fluid and moving , this moving part comes events and news.
- Biases are at the heart of holding overnight positions ( with out Biases I can not hold OIL overnight positions) .

- KEY S/R levels are very important for the day action
- what I mean here KEY S/R levels are NOT only just the static levels but also the ones which are formed based on the price action on Chart ( today, yesterday )
- KEY S/R levels is easy to follow than Biases ( as you rightly pointed )
- so there should NOT be any excuse for NOT identifying and paying attention to KEY S/R levels . one way to do it post them ahead so to anticipate action UP or DOWN from those levels.
- the key here is NOT only identifying but having the conviction to pull the trigger on those levels once confirmed .

- a smart trader should master both ( master to pull trigger at KEY S/R levels not just identifying them)
- EON KID is good at combining both , KID are you on vacation these days? we haven't heard much ( thanks for all the Inventory numbers quick posts )

Quote from BCE:

You're welcome. Missed too many of these myself, although I did catch some. Imagining NoDoji did quite well today as it did trade strongly off of the pivots and other s/r levels.

ADD One other thing I think is that "biases" can get you in trouble. I think it's okay to pay attention to various reports, news, etc. But the problem is we think our interpretation of what's up is the correct one. And if our interpretation isn't the same as the other market participants we get in trouble. We're then fighting the trend. And as anyone paying attention to this thread in particular, that gets us in trouble. Better to just trade off PA and s/r and pivots, whole dollar amounts, etc. My 2 cents.
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one last one ...

- a trader with Biases can pull trigger more often ( % wise and also confidently ) at KEY S/R levels than one just only acting on KEY S/R levels with out biases.

- one big down side of biases as you rightly pointed
<< if our interpretation isn't the same as the other market participants we get in trouble. >>

Quote from InvestVision:

- Both KEY S/R levels and Biases have their own place in trading.
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Cramer says the Treasury should sell July futures to reign in speculators, exactly what the spr was meant for, controlling free markets.

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