CL Redux

[NoDoji]

Quote from BCE:

And although I haven't been using Fibonacci levels per se lately, I have that embedded in my psyche looking at charts and just see where they are.

I've never used Fib levels, but I do like to make note of the 50% level of a range because it often acts as its own S/R level in a trend.

So, for example, if price puts in a high, then sells off, and seems to establish support, like this morning into and after the NYMEX open, I calculate the price that would indicate a 50% retracement of that move.

This morning that price level was 104.76.

This helps me set profit targets as well. This morning I had a trade where a ride to the 20-bar EMA also happened to coincide with the 50% retracement level. As a result of this confluence, I chose that level as my profit target.

 

[schizo]

Quote from NoDoji:

Also 103.66 was possible the measured I called from the distance of yesterday's morning sell off, then off yesterday's very wide channel high of 105.96. It took a long time to put in that move, but enough traders/bots must've had that level noted from the day's session to give it a go in the overnight, because there was a weak attempt to bounce off it during the 2:40am ET 5-min bar.

103.33 overnight low was actually the retest of 103.41 made on 2/23. Also take a look at the following chart.

 

[InvestVision]

60 min bar isn't too late for CL action , given many major events of CL happen on 30 min interval such as pre day action 8:30 to 9:00 EST before 9:30 market open and EIA report 10:30 EST etc..
30 bar chart may give visibility into what happened before and after the major events ..
- but I know it is one's comfort level

here is CL 30 min bars http://bit.ly/eKgaF4

@BEC , when I said asian /over nite session it is out side US stock market hours ..

Quote from NoDoji:

Yes, very well-behaved action today.

For those who track 60-min bar levels (I do), Friday's 11:00am ET bar low was 103.33. These levels get tested as price moves from level to level.

Also 103.66 was possible the measured I called from the distance of yesterday's morning sell off, then off yesterday's very wide channel high of 105.96. It took a long time to put in that move, but enough traders/bots must've had that level noted from the day's session to give it a go in the overnight, because there was a weak attempt to bounce off it during the 2:40am ET 5-min bar.

 

[BCE]

Visaria,

Forgot, but as NoDoji mentioned, the 20 EMA is another thing we keep an eye on as it can act as support or resistance too.

 

[schizo]

Short 104.94

 

[BCE]

Quote from InvestVision:

@BEC , when I said asian /over nite session it is out side US stock market hours ..

Got it.

 

[NoDoji]

Quote from BCE:

They just asked Bertha Coombs on CNBC if crude traders felt a top had been put in and she said it was just the opposite. She said the biggest demand was for May $150 calls. I think she was reporting from NYMEX.

There's a guy on CNBC now saying we can see $130 in the next few months.

Looking at the daily chart, I see strength. We closed above yesterday's low, we closed above yesterday's close. The 2/24 spike high (103.41) held as a strong support zone in the overnight session.

Friday's bull containment bar was broken with conviction yesterday and today's action closed price almost at the top of that bar.

I've noticed that new highs and new lows tend to get revisited at least once, and 106.95 is sitting up there, waiting. However, it's a bearish bar in and of itself positioned at an extreme like that.

Interesting times ahead.

 

[Visaria]

Quote from NoDoji:

I tend to over trade in ranges because I'm trying to stay positioned for the break out of the range that eventually occurs. I will often have quite a few scratch trades before I catch the wave in whichever direction it ends up going. I used to have those back-to-back scratch trades, then step away in frustration, missing the big move. Now I'm ok "fly fishing" for the eventual move. I usually lock in a tick or two to cover commissions, so no big deal.

Yes, this is what I was doing on my last few trades. I was convinced it would break out big, so kept being stopped out at b/e, and then going back in.

 

[Visaria]

Many thanks BCE and NoDoji for advice on where to take profits. I shall give it some thought.

 

[schizo]

Just curious. I ain't too big on dojis but we've had back-to-back dojis: a gravestone doji followed by a long-legged. Does this supposed to mean anything?