CL Redux

[InvestVision]

http://www.cnn.com/2011/WORLD/africa/02/24/libya.protests/index.html?eref=time_world

The Pentagon is looking at "all options" it can offer Obama in dealing with the Libyan crisis, a senior U.S. military official told CNN, in the first indication the crisis could take on a military dimension.

"Our job is to give options from the military side and that is what we are thinking about now," said the official, who declined to be identified because of the extremely sensitive nature of the situation. "We will provide the president with options should he need them."

Quote from InvestVision:

if Gaddafi did not start Air bombing , people movement will grow and take over more and more of the country.
if he starts air bombing of people or OIL-fields in a BIG way, it will trigger UN security council NO-Fly zone action

either way he is toasted ...

 

[InvestVision]

one possible price action today

- Squeeze shorts from the low 99 level to 102 ,
- chop around 101 and
- settle day around 100.50

Quote from InvestVision:

Pull back to 96. Very very unlikely to happen in This week , on close basis I would say only 2% chance to happen this week .


I think shorts will be sqeezed one more time today from these 99 level

 

[kingjelly]

geez.... 98.8 is heavily defended


edit: breaks down mid post and missed it... nice

 

[InvestVision]

look at 5 min chart , 98.8 is the mid point line for 6 hours of asian session trading before those big spike bars ..

Quote from kingjelly:

geez.... 98.8 is heavily defended

 

[InvestVision]

it seems these items are holding OIL at low level this morning

--------
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/libya-worries-deepen-on-fears-unrest-may-spread-2011-02-24

- The Financial Times reported that Saudi Arabia is in talks with European oil companies to make up the oil supply that Libya otherwise would have produced.

GOLDMAN talk
-----------------
However, “contagion risk is still the primary driver of oil prices, not these physical disruptions,” Goldman Sachs analysts said in a report. “The current disruptions, which we estimate to be about 500,000 barrels a day, are not large enough to substantially shift the global oil market balance. …

“And even if it eventually impacts all of Libya’s 1.5 million barrels a day of oil exports … the high level of global inventory could easily accommodate this for more than 100 days and OPEC spare capacity could easily absorb the entire loss if needed.”

At the same time, “further disruptions could now create severe shortages in global oil markets that would require substantial demand rationing,” the Goldman analysts said.

SAUDI & Baharain
--------------------
On Wednesday, Saudi King Abdullah announced social measures valued in the tens of billions of dollars.

Reports say the effort is designed to avoid the kinds of protests and demonstrations that have already toppled the leaders of Tunisia and Egypt and continue unabated in several other Arab countries.

The Saudi move follows a decision by Bahrain’s King Hamad bin Isa al-Khalifa to release political prisoners and offer a dialog to the protesters in his country. Bahrain, island home of the U.S. Navy’s Fifth Fleet and a key refined-products center, is governed by Sunni Muslims, but Shiites make up the majority of its citizens.

 

[CALLumbus]

Wow, trading 1 contract today feels like trading 3 contracts on normal days (whatever "a normal day" means for CL ...) !

 

[EON Kid]

Saudi king back home, orders $37 billion in handouts

Before Abdullah arrived, state media announced an action plan to help lower- and middle-income people among the 18 million Saudi nationals. It includes pay rises to offset inflation, unemployment benefits and affordable family housing.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20110223/wl_nm/us_saudi_king

 

[EON Kid]

next targets YHOD then Morning high

 

[InvestVision]

High-frequency trading
----------------------------

exchanges paying 14 cents/100 shares to MMs is NEWS to me, anybody know what NYMEX pays for CL Market Makers ???,

----
here's an example: A high-frequency trader (HFT) who has a layered series of bids and offers on IBM might buy 100 shares of IBM for, say $128.59, and sell it a fraction of a second later for $128.60. The profit: $1.00 (100 shares at a profit of $0.01).

But there's more. Exchanges pay rebates to provide liquidity (offers to buy and sell stock). An exchange might pay, say, 14 cents per hundred shares.

So in this example, the HFT would make $1.00 trading the spread, plus a 14 cent rebate for providing a bid (offer to buy) and another 14 cents for an "ask" (offer to sell).

http://www.cnbc.com/id/39041598
-----

- High-frequency trading is the main reason volume on the NYSE has increased 150 percent in five years.


Who's trading? Here's the latest breakdown of daily volume (source: Tabb Group):

High-Frequency Trading: 56 percent (includes proprietary trading shops, market makers, and high-frequency trading hedge funds)
Institutional: 17 percent (mutual funds, pensions, asset managers)
Hedge Funds: 15 percent
Retail: 11 percent
Other: 1 percent (non-proprietary banking)

---

 

[InvestVision]

MMs , HFT trader volume is about 56% on NYMEX
so anybody have any numbers or articles what is the equivalent HFT share on crude OIL ??

---------
HFT profitability

Asked how successful he and his firm have been, Narang told Kroft,
"We've had two or three days in a row where we lose money.
But we've never had a week, so far, where we lost.
We've never had a month that was a loser for us."

http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2010...36075_page2.shtml?tag=contentMain;contentBody

Quote from InvestVision:

High-frequency trading
----------------------------

exchanges paying 14 cents/100 shares to MMs is NEWS to me, anybody know what NYMEX pays for CL Market Makers ???,

---