Here is my view on Libya what is ahead
Stage 1: US and many European governments are in rush to get out of their people asap so the when UN take actions like No-fly zone Gaddafi won't take hostage of westerners.
Stage 2: some UN trade sanctions on Libya , account Freeze etc..
Stage 3: UN security council No-fly zone action that means Libya can not fly any air plane on it's own terrritory , if done it will be shot by UN planes ( much like Iraq no-fly zone implemented after first GULF war ) to protect people from Gaddafi air bombing.
- this No-fly zone is kind of mini-war on Libya from US/EU under the UN banner , but UN forces stay out side of country and make sure NO air flying on Libyan skies.
- this UN action starts only after Libya bombs people from air planes . Gaddafi know this fact , that is the reason he is not in rush to start air plane bombing in a BIG way and crushing the people movement with ground forces .
- even if Gaddafi is successful in setting fire one or two OIL wells , I think UN will start NO-FLY zone action to protect Libyan people natural resources.
At this stage my view is
Gaddafi chance to recover and stay in power: 35% ( people movement controlled Libya increasing day by day )
people Revolution success: 65%
once UN imposes NO-fly zone those number will change to 20% , 80% that is when OIL comes back to 92 level
Stage 1: US and many European governments are in rush to get out of their people asap so the when UN take actions like No-fly zone Gaddafi won't take hostage of westerners.
Stage 2: some UN trade sanctions on Libya , account Freeze etc..
Stage 3: UN security council No-fly zone action that means Libya can not fly any air plane on it's own terrritory , if done it will be shot by UN planes ( much like Iraq no-fly zone implemented after first GULF war ) to protect people from Gaddafi air bombing.
- this No-fly zone is kind of mini-war on Libya from US/EU under the UN banner , but UN forces stay out side of country and make sure NO air flying on Libyan skies.
- this UN action starts only after Libya bombs people from air planes . Gaddafi know this fact , that is the reason he is not in rush to start air plane bombing in a BIG way and crushing the people movement with ground forces .
- even if Gaddafi is successful in setting fire one or two OIL wells , I think UN will start NO-FLY zone action to protect Libyan people natural resources.
At this stage my view is
Gaddafi chance to recover and stay in power: 35% ( people movement controlled Libya increasing day by day )
people Revolution success: 65%
once UN imposes NO-fly zone those number will change to 20% , 80% that is when OIL comes back to 92 level
