CL Redux
- Thread starter schizo
- Start date
z, I think you're better off using PA technicals, with previous S/R and trend lines getting the most honor and the 20-period EMA getting some honor (less with CL than with other instruments)
92.42 was a daily S/R level in line and price paused there for about minute in the overnight session and then broke out hard looking for the next level. The next level was the upper channel line on the daily chart (draw a lower TL connecting 1/25 to 2/15 and then a parallel line across the 1/31 and/or 2/3 highs and price found R just a few ticks shy of that line not too long ago).
If it moves back up there, then the daily chart high 94.89 is in play for the breakout.
Since this is an emotional news-based move, it seems unlikely, and price should sell off pretty hard when this event fizzles, but then again, anything can happen.
Yes.
Right now the pipeline from the Gulf that carries oil to Cushing only flows one way to Cushing, OK. Add to that the fact that Canadian Oil now flows in large and increasing quantities to Cushing, "backs up" against its refining and limited storage capacity and causes the near month to be artificially depressed.
In 2013 when a new pipeline is expected to come online it is expected that Canadian producers will -- at times of backwardation -- through ship to the Gulf and bypass the Cushing bottleneck to sell internationally. The refining and storage situation in Cushing -- created primarily by pipeline anomalies -- is now out of hand. Even the spread between Light Louisiana Sweet (LLS) and WTI is now at a record.
WTI is quite underpriced and Brent a bit overpriced. And while I know it seems somewhat ridiculous to think that producers would actually ship significant quantities out of gulf ports to deliver as a substitute for Brent the reality is that at a $12 differential they are probably thinking of strapping barrels to the backs of "mules" to see if the can swim it.
BTW ... WTI is marked as good delivery in lieu of Brent,
Right now the pipeline from the Gulf that carries oil to Cushing only flows one way to Cushing, OK. Add to that the fact that Canadian Oil now flows in large and increasing quantities to Cushing, "backs up" against its refining and limited storage capacity and causes the near month to be artificially depressed.
In 2013 when a new pipeline is expected to come online it is expected that Canadian producers will -- at times of backwardation -- through ship to the Gulf and bypass the Cushing bottleneck to sell internationally. The refining and storage situation in Cushing -- created primarily by pipeline anomalies -- is now out of hand. Even the spread between Light Louisiana Sweet (LLS) and WTI is now at a record.
WTI is quite underpriced and Brent a bit overpriced. And while I know it seems somewhat ridiculous to think that producers would actually ship significant quantities out of gulf ports to deliver as a substitute for Brent the reality is that at a $12 differential they are probably thinking of strapping barrels to the backs of "mules" to see if the can swim it.
BTW ... WTI is marked as good delivery in lieu of Brent,
Yes. Libbia is the 3rd largest oil supply to EU and oposition said will stop pipeline stream if Gov. not stop the shooting.
The Iranian shippes got permission to cross the Zues channel.
Iranian opposition plans for a demonstration for Sunday.
Isnt the word on the wall? In Libbia and Iran, they dont look @ the 20EMA...
It was clear to me. When I was taking a crazy trade last week (holding into news, I said so too -crazy, and was lucky to win it)
http://af.reuters.com/article/egyptNews/idAFLDE71K0TK20110221
* Crude oil prices jump on Libyan unrest, protests in region
* Tribal leader threatens to halt oil exports
* Striking workers stop production at Nafoora - Al Jazeera
(Updates prices, adds quote, detail)
By Jessica Donati
LONDON, Feb 21 (Reuters) - Brent crude oil futures rose to a
2-1/2 year high over $105 a barrel a barrel on Monday, and U.S.
prices rallied by over $3 as clashes in Libya threatened to
disrupt oil flows from the OPEC member.
Brent futures LCOc1 were up $1.73 at $104.25 a barrel by
1204 GMT after breaking above last week's peak of $104.52, its
highest since September 2008.
U.S. crude oil CLc1 prices were up by $3.05 at $89.25 a
barrel around the same time.
One of the bloodiest revolts in the region hit the oil
exporter as scores were killed in anti-government protests, army
units defected to the opposition and long-time leader Muammar
Gaddafi's son vowed to fight to the last man standing.
[ID:nLDE71K01F]
The leader of the Al-Zuwayya tribe in eastern Libya said
oil exports to the West would be cut off unless authorities
stopped violence against protesters.
"Libya is a significant producer and exporter of good
quality crude oil, and threats by the tribal leader to stop
production is worrisome," said Christophe Barret, an oil analyst
at Credit Agricole Corporate and Investment Bank.
Libya produced 1.58 million barrels per day in January, and
major disruptions in the oil-rich North African country would
present serious strategic challenges for Western governments.
Italy looks set to bear the brunt of a fall-out if Libya
descends further into chaos, but Eni Societa per Azioni (ENI.MI: Quote)
on Monday said output there had proceeded normally over the past
24 hours. [ID:nWEB0408]
Oil prices extended their rally on Monday after striking
workers halted production at Libya's Nafoora oilfield, Al
Jazeera television reported on Monday, without giving further
details. [ID:nLDE71K0FI]
European oil and gas companies have evacuated staff and
suspended drilling preparations in Libya as violence spreads
across the north African country. [ID:nLDE71K116]
CONTAGION
A wave of popular unrest in North Africa and the Middle East
has already toppled long-time leaders in Tunisia and Egypt, and
traders are watching events carefully in other members of the
OPEC group for signs of escalating tension.
"The biggest concern is current contagion spreading to Saudi
Arabia," said Michael Hewson, a market analyst at CMC Markets,
adding that "markets hate uncertainty and will act first, think
later".
Saudi Arabia fears that unrest in Bahrain, where majority
Shi'ites are protesting against the Sunni government, might
spread to its Shi'ite minority, who mostly live in the eastern
province, the source of Saudi oil wealth. [ID:nLDE71I03F]
Bahraini protesters camped out in Manama's Pearl Square and
pressed demands for a new government on Monday. "In the eyes of
the people the government has already fallen," said Amir Ahmed,
38, a government oil sector employee.
Elsewhere, in OPEC's second-largest producer Iran, the
daughter of former president Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani was
arrested on Sunday for taking part in a banned opposition rally,
the official IRNA news agency reported. [ID:nHAF055934]
In Yemen, President Ali Abdullah Saleh warned protesters
demanding an end to his 32-year rule that they could not achieve
their goal through "anarchy and killing", after nationwide
unrest, which has killed 12 people since Thursday.
[ID:nLDE71K0MX]
(Reporting by Jessica Donati; editing by Jane Baird)
* Crude oil prices jump on Libyan unrest, protests in region
* Tribal leader threatens to halt oil exports
* Striking workers stop production at Nafoora - Al Jazeera
(Updates prices, adds quote, detail)
By Jessica Donati
LONDON, Feb 21 (Reuters) - Brent crude oil futures rose to a
2-1/2 year high over $105 a barrel a barrel on Monday, and U.S.
prices rallied by over $3 as clashes in Libya threatened to
disrupt oil flows from the OPEC member.
Brent futures LCOc1 were up $1.73 at $104.25 a barrel by
1204 GMT after breaking above last week's peak of $104.52, its
highest since September 2008.
U.S. crude oil CLc1 prices were up by $3.05 at $89.25 a
barrel around the same time.
One of the bloodiest revolts in the region hit the oil
exporter as scores were killed in anti-government protests, army
units defected to the opposition and long-time leader Muammar
Gaddafi's son vowed to fight to the last man standing.
[ID:nLDE71K01F]
The leader of the Al-Zuwayya tribe in eastern Libya said
oil exports to the West would be cut off unless authorities
stopped violence against protesters.
"Libya is a significant producer and exporter of good
quality crude oil, and threats by the tribal leader to stop
production is worrisome," said Christophe Barret, an oil analyst
at Credit Agricole Corporate and Investment Bank.
Libya produced 1.58 million barrels per day in January, and
major disruptions in the oil-rich North African country would
present serious strategic challenges for Western governments.
Italy looks set to bear the brunt of a fall-out if Libya
descends further into chaos, but Eni Societa per Azioni (ENI.MI: Quote)
on Monday said output there had proceeded normally over the past
24 hours. [ID:nWEB0408]
Oil prices extended their rally on Monday after striking
workers halted production at Libya's Nafoora oilfield, Al
Jazeera television reported on Monday, without giving further
details. [ID:nLDE71K0FI]
European oil and gas companies have evacuated staff and
suspended drilling preparations in Libya as violence spreads
across the north African country. [ID:nLDE71K116]
CONTAGION
A wave of popular unrest in North Africa and the Middle East
has already toppled long-time leaders in Tunisia and Egypt, and
traders are watching events carefully in other members of the
OPEC group for signs of escalating tension.
"The biggest concern is current contagion spreading to Saudi
Arabia," said Michael Hewson, a market analyst at CMC Markets,
adding that "markets hate uncertainty and will act first, think
later".
Saudi Arabia fears that unrest in Bahrain, where majority
Shi'ites are protesting against the Sunni government, might
spread to its Shi'ite minority, who mostly live in the eastern
province, the source of Saudi oil wealth. [ID:nLDE71I03F]
Bahraini protesters camped out in Manama's Pearl Square and
pressed demands for a new government on Monday. "In the eyes of
the people the government has already fallen," said Amir Ahmed,
38, a government oil sector employee.
Elsewhere, in OPEC's second-largest producer Iran, the
daughter of former president Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani was
arrested on Sunday for taking part in a banned opposition rally,
the official IRNA news agency reported. [ID:nHAF055934]
In Yemen, President Ali Abdullah Saleh warned protesters
demanding an end to his 32-year rule that they could not achieve
their goal through "anarchy and killing", after nationwide
unrest, which has killed 12 people since Thursday.
[ID:nLDE71K0MX]
(Reporting by Jessica Donati; editing by Jane Baird)