CL Redux

Good Fortune · Feb 18, 2011

Quote from InvestVision:

close at 8975 on the dot as forecasted

now I should apply for Goldman sachs commodity trader post

<<<<<<<<<<<<<<

Quote from InvestVision:

Reversal from .96 so we likely to see 90.00

I see 2 paths
A). Reversal tp 8950. Then close 9075
B) reversal to 9000 then close. 9145

>>>>>>>>>>>>>

No we need you here!

BCE · Feb 18, 2011

austinp · Feb 18, 2011

Quote from NoDoji:

To all the folks on ET who insist that the market is totally random, that technical analysis is meaningless and doesn't work, and that there is no way to truly have an edge in trading, I offer this explanation of my ability to have predicted this morning's price action yesterday:

Schizo's broken crystal ball

CL just happens to be one of the cleanest, technically trading tapes there is. All currency markets trade much purer than stocks, so do commodity markets.

CL is best of both worlds. There is no other symbol like it... not even a distant second by comparison.

I half-understand the lingo you toss around and know this much for sure: there are many different angles to view a chart from and decipher the same thing.

It doesn't take hundreds of esoteric book pages to understand 21st century price behavior... truth is, it can be explained in less than ten

Swan Noir · Feb 18, 2011

Thanks ND. Can I ask what software you use and who provides the data. Anyone else want to chime in?

Quote from NoDoji:B

I just accept as par for course, and generally I flip to the other side when that happens (I consider it a trap, good for at least a stop run in the opposite direction).
[
/B]

Holey Grail · Feb 18, 2011

Hi--noobie here (this is my first ET post, actually). This is the best thread on ET, by very very far.

I'd appreciate hearing views on order entry methods you use for CL--what do you guys do?

Options I've done or considered include the following:

1. Simply enter at market.

2. Enter a limit order before the market reaches your entry.

3. Wait until price enters a range, then enter a stop order above/below the range.

4. A fancy variation on 3: Enter a sell stop x ticks above the range and a buy stop x+y ticks above the range.

5. Something else entirely.

I just do 1 at this point, thinking very had about 3 and maybe 4.

Thanks to any and all who reply!

austinp · Feb 18, 2011

Quote from Swan Noir:

Thanks ND. Can I ask what software you use and who provides the data. Anyone else want to chime in?

I'll chime...

I've used TradeStation charts since 2002 and Ninja charts since 2005. Both are excellent platforms.

TS has some costs involved regardless of your status as a client or not. Historical data is unmatched and the ability to research years if not decades backward in time is invaluable.

NT has no out-of-pocket costs in sim mode and/or in live mode with certain brokers. It too is an excellent charting platform and imo all anyone would need for active trading and light research.

No doubt there are plenty of excellent chart services out there, not meant to disregard or slight any others.

NoDoji · Feb 18, 2011

Quote from Swan Noir:

Thanks ND. Can I ask what software you use and who provides the data. Anyone else want to chime in?

I use IB for data and QuoteTracker for charts.

Quote from InvestVision:

you don't need to work hard for this book , as you already have 2 years worth of postings on your journal , all you need is compile them and edit.

I give permission for anyone who wants to take the time to extract the "good stuff" from my 5 million posts on ET to publish a book out of it

Good Fortune · Feb 18, 2011

Quote from NoDoji:

I use IB for data and QuoteTracker for charts.

I give permission for anyone who wants to take the time to extract the "good stuff" from my 5 million posts on ET to publish a book out of it

We need to keep the knowledge in house !

dkizzle · Feb 18, 2011

Quote from NoDoji:

Indeed! Or as my friend BostonKiller calls it, the F/U candle, as in "F/U longs, you're going down!" :eek:

LOL - This thread is the SHI*!!!

I'm a lurker in here but really love the insight from seasoned traders. Especially when you guys break down entry's like NoD and many others so often do!!!

schizo · Feb 18, 2011

Quote from Holey Grail:

Hi--noobie here (this is my first ET post, actually). This is the best thread on ET, by very very far.

I'd appreciate hearing views on order entry methods you use for CL--what do you guys do?

Options I've done or considered include the following:

1. Simply enter at market.

2. Enter a limit order before the market reaches your entry.

3. Wait until price enters a range, then enter a stop order above/below the range.

4. A fancy variation on 3: Enter a sell stop x ticks above the range and a buy stop x+y ticks above the range.

5. Something else entirely.

I just do 1 at this point, thinking very had about 3 and maybe 4.

Thanks to any and all who reply!

It largely depends on which school of thought you subscribe to, of which there are two major camps: progressive vs. reactionary (yeah, just like the ol' political divide). A progressive looks forward in time and thereby anticipate--or predict--reversals that will likely to take place; a reactionary, on the other hand, makes one's move by reacting to what has transpired at any given moment.

As such, I would say the progressive is a fitting candidate for number 2 from the 5 choices you gave above. The reactionary, number 3. Granted, neither one is perfect and you will benefit most by following a little from both camps. In any case, this has been occupying my otherwise fragile mind for a long time and I still don't have a clear-cut answer that I'm content with. But it's a fascinating subject that's worth pursuing nonetheless.