CL Redux

Here are some good sites to share ....


1/ Ranking Economic Data
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http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2011/02/lists-ranking-economic-data.html

click on the links on the page , you see excellent graphs
A-List
• BLS: Employment Situation Report (Employment Graphs)
• BEA: GDP Report (quarterly) (GDP Graphs)

B-List
• Census: New Home Sales (New Home Graphs)
• Census: Housing Starts (Housing Graphs)
• ISM Manufacturing Index (ISM Graph)
• Census: Retail Sales (Retail Graphs)
• BEA: Personal Income and Outlays (graph)
• Fed: Industrial Production (graphs IP and Capacity Utilization)
• BLS: Core CPI (graph CPI)
• ***DOL: Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims (graph weekly claims)
 
Trade Setups
--------------------------------------------
- You only need to master one setup to be a consistently profitable trader.
- Screen time will allow you to master one setup.
- After you have mastered one setup "own it " you can add another setup.


http://www.trading-naked.com/Setups.htm

The best setup to begin with is the one that you see and understand easiest. If you are forcing yourself to learn a setup because you believe another person is successful using it you may be taking the longer route to profitability.

We are all different . Our brains and personalities will gravitate to different setups. This is also true of exit techniques.

Most traders I hear from lengthen their road to profitability by trying to apply too many concepts before owning the first one.

They have studied a myriad of techniques but have yet to master any. This allows them to talk about trading but unable to consistently trade profitably.

The first decision to make is; do you desire to be a counter trend trader? or a with the trend trader? Eventually, you can be both.
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http://toddstrade.blogspot.com/
 
Open interest was 1.56 million contracts, the highest level since Sept. 12, 2007.

http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601072&sid=ajoSfFQTFAgs

I know with spread trading it is hard to tell what is true open interest, but my first take is that with such high open interest with a declining price trend that there are a bunch of new shorts that have to buy to close out their trades on rollover, but there are still a bunch of longs who have yet to capitulate and close out their losing positions, could get nasty if we go a dollar and a half lower sometime this week, but the one major conclusion probably is increased volitility probably capable of another move down, forcing liquidations/uncle points and then short covering on rollover.
 
Quote from InvestVision:

Here are some good sites to share ....


1/ Ranking Economic Data
--------------------------------------
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2011/02/lists-ranking-economic-data.html

click on the links on the page , you see excellent graphs
More...
Thanks. Those really are nice graphs and charts. Here's Briefing.com's Economic Calendar with some important ones coming up this week. Also clicking on the links brings up charts. They rank the importance too, but I couldn't find it on their site. But it's available on Yahoo's Economic Calendar.

http://www.briefing.com/Investor/Public/Calendars/EconomicCalendar.htm

http://biz.yahoo.com/c/e.html

And Barrons http://online.barrons.com/public/page/barrons_econoday.html
 
Quote from InvestVision:

Trade Setups
--------------------------------------------
- You only need to master one setup to be a consistently profitable trader.
- Screen time will allow you to master one setup.
- After you have mastered one setup "own it " you can add another setup.


http://www.trading-naked.com/Setups.htm

The best setup to begin with is the one that you see and understand easiest. If you are forcing yourself to learn a setup because you believe another person is successful using it you may be taking the longer route to profitability.

We are all different . Our brains and personalities will gravitate to different setups. This is also true of exit techniques.

Most traders I hear from lengthen their road to profitability by trying to apply too many concepts before owning the first one.

They have studied a myriad of techniques but have yet to master any. This allows them to talk about trading but unable to consistently trade profitably.

The first decision to make is; do you desire to be a counter trend trader? or a with the trend trader? Eventually, you can be both.
-------------------

http://toddstrade.blogspot.com/
More...
I've seen the first site before. Maybe I posted something from there. Or bookmarked it in relation to something else. I like the graphic of the naked trader. :) I do web design work too and I'm not sure about the design here. :) To each his own. :) Are either of these sites yours?

Those are good thoughts he has about trading. But as NoDoji and I, in particular, have discussed (hope I'm not misrepresenting you ND), I think a lot of new traders gravitate to counter-trend trading without a viable plan. They use no stops, and try to average in when the trend continues against them. And invariably they really get burned and then maybe try trading with the trend more. Fortunately this never happened to me (he said with great sarcasm). :)

You seem to do a lot of counter-trend trading, and lately at least have done a great job of targeting reversals. I was going to ask you about this actually, if you care to share. What I was wondering about is in the event you are wrong do you have an exit strategy? I remember yesterday you took a small loss of 6 ticks on that one trade when the momentum lost steam. But even on that one you were up quite a bit previous to that. Having a target of where to exit and having the patience to ride through smaller counter moves to reach the target is another useful skill.
 
(Not relating to you IV, as I'm sure you do, but just general comments about all of us and not anyone here in particular). The thing is all viable trading plans need both a good entry and good exit strategy. This is what's so great about what Mark Douglas is talking about. If we enter a trade assuming we are right and then continue relating to that trade from this perspective, even if the trade goes against us, we'll get ourselves in a lot of trouble. Because, you know what, a lot of times we won't be right at all, even though we may be convinced how smart we are. Again, I speak directly from my own experience. If we trade without a complete plan and just assume we'll at least eventually be right, this won't work well at all.
 
Quote from BCE:

But as NoDoji and I, in particular, have discussed (hope I'm not misrepresenting you ND)
More...

That depends on whether or not you recorded our conversation :D

Quote from BCE:

I think a lot of new traders gravitate to counter-trend trading without a viable plan. They use no stops, and try to average in when the trend continues against them. And invariably they really get burned and then maybe try trading with the trend more. Fortunately this never happened to me (he said with great sarcasm).
More...

Absolutely spot on. Never happened to me either. Ever. Even if you knew nothing whatsoever about trading, you'd have to be total idiot to trade like that. (Excuse me for a few moments while I apply salve to my old burn scars.)

[For those of you wondering why the hell I'm on ET when I should be enjoying a romantic Valentine's Day dinner with my sweetheart: He's working tonight. I'm not. So I believe I have a good chance of getting overflow Valentine's chocolates from V, who likely has a pile of them after his shameless 10-loss-in-a-row (come on, we all know that's statistically impossible) appeal this morning.]

Quote from BCE:

If we trade without a complete plan and just assume we'll at least eventually be right, this won't work well at all.
More...

I, too, am very curious about IV's inner workings. I've bared my soul on ET and I want IV to do the same and tell us what's up here. Some trades are these perfect pivot points. Some there are unusual losses. Some there are fantastic profits. Some there are small losses after acceptable profits have been shown. Some there are large drawdowns, followed by Hail Mary exits. It all seems random to me, though there appears to be net profitability. All this randomness makes me nervous. It made me nervous when I returned to my desk after a break today to see that price found support twice @ 85.35 at 12:20 and 12:24pm ET. What was the meaning of THAT level?
 
Few things here.

- the naked trader site is not mine, I just posted as I liked the concept ok mastering and owning one setup first. I do not have any site

- Yes , there were couple of erratic trades last week , try to stream line going forward.
 
Quote from NoDoji:

So I believe I have a good chance of getting overflow Valentine's chocolates from V, who likely has a pile of them after his shameless 10-loss-in-a-row (come on, we all know that's statistically impossible) appeal this morning.]
More...


No-one sent me any after I was named and shamed. :(
 
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