CL Redux

Oil fundamentals very bearish so as sentiment (BoA analyst )
-------------------------------
- OPEC pumping 400,000 more per day is huge bearish for oil with plenty of oil
- boa analyst brent $90 means Nymex crude $80 . Short term ?? Can we read it as 1 to 2 months
( for oil we should read short term may be 1 month As it changes so fast )

In all this Mubarak crap we are missing critical info.


http://af.reuters.com/article/energyOilNews/idAFL3E7DB01720110211

1/ * OPEC raised its oil output to 29.72 million barrels per
day in January, the highest level since December 2008, and up by
around 400,000 barrels per day compared from December 2010, it
said in a monthly report.
2/ Rising OPEC output and comfortable oil stocks in developed
nations should limit a further spike in oil prices despite
demand hitting an all-time high later this year, the
International Energy Agency said.
3/ * Brent oil prices are about to decline
significantly in the short term to below $90 per barrel on spare
OPEC capacity and rising supply, Bank of America Merrill Lynch
wrote in a report.

UPCOMING DATA/EVENTS (GMT) -- note time is GMT

0800 OECD IEA Oil Market Report Feb

1330 U.S. Initial jobless claims Weekly
1500 U.S. Whole sale inventories Dec 2010
1530 U.S. EIA natural gas stocks Weekly
 
Brent oil to drop below $90/bbl in short term-BofAML
Thu Feb 10, 2011 1:34pm GMT_Print | Single Page [-] Text [+]
LONDON Feb 10 (Reuters) - Brent oil prices LCOc1 are about to decline significantly in the short term to below $90 per barrel on spare OPEC capacity and rising supply, Bank of America Merrill Lynch wrote in a report on Thursday.

The bank notes that despite political turbulence in the Middle East,
- the approaching end of winter,
- excessive production capacities and
- potential monetary policy tightening in emerging markets
will push the price below $90 until the fourth quarter.

For the entire year, the bank expects Brent crude prices to average about $88 per barrel and U.S. light crude CLc1 to average $87 per barrel, but sees upside risks to the forecast
- due to global economic expansion and
- further quantitative easing in the United States.

Brent oil traded above $100 per barrel on Thursday, hitting as much as $102.88 driven by Middle East tension and briefly by rumours, later dismissed, that Saudi King Abdullah was seriously ill and may even have died. [ID:nL3E7D90CD] [ID:nLDE71919V]

OPEC said in a report on Thursday that it had raised its oil output to 29.72 million barrels per day in January, the highest since December 2008 and around 400,000 barrels per day more than the previous month. [ID:nLDE7191IZ] (Reporting by Patryk Wasilewski; Editing by Jason Neely)
 
Just a heads up. The Michigan Sentiment Report comes out at 6:55 PST/9:55 EST. A weird time. This is the one I forgot about and lost $2856 in about a minute trading 6 TF contracts. :) Generally moves the market.

Feb 11 09:55 Mich Sentiment Feb
Briefing.com est. 75.5 Consensus est. 75.5 Prior 74.2

And the Trade Balance is coming out right now.

Feb 11 08:30 Trade Balance Dec -$40.6B Prior -$38.3B
 
Out too early with below target


Analysts said the military could play a key role if demonstrations swell.
"This now creates a massive crisis for the Egyptian military," analysts with Stratfor global intelligence company said in a statement soon after Mubarak's speech.

"As dawn breaks over Cairo, it is likely that large numbers of others will join the demonstrators and that the crowd might begin to move. The military would then be forced to stand back and let events go where they go, or fire on the demonstrators," the analysts said.


Soon after Mubarak spoke, opposition leader Mohamed ElBaradei also stressed the role of the military.
"Entire nation is on the streets. Only way out is for regime to go. People power can't be crushed. We shall prevail. Still hope army can join," he said on Twitter.

Quote from InvestVision:

Short 87.52 , target 87.0
More...
 
Quote from InvestVision:

Out too early with below target


Analysts said the military could play a key role if demonstrations swell.
"This now creates a massive crisis for the Egyptian military," analysts with Stratfor global intelligence company said in a statement soon after Mubarak's speech.

"As dawn breaks over Cairo, it is likely that large numbers of others will join the demonstrators and that the crowd might begin to move. The military would then be forced to stand back and let events go where they go, or fire on the demonstrators," the analysts said.


Soon after Mubarak spoke, opposition leader Mohamed ElBaradei also stressed the role of the military.
"Entire nation is on the streets. Only way out is for regime to go. People power can't be crushed. We shall prevail. Still hope army can join," he said on Twitter.
More...
The military is siding with Mubarak and telling people to go home and let the changes play out. But the people don't trust the people in power. I don't see them going home. Plus they won't march on the Presidential Palace as Mubarak has left. We'll see how it plays out today.

Good trade BTW. Assume you were sleeping when you got filled.
 
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