adding to long at 87.90 , avg 88.25
CL Redux
- Thread starter schizo
- Start date
Analysis: Even a broken Brent benchmark is the best for now
http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE70N25N20110124?pageNumber=1
Goldman Sachs (GS.N) says Brent is still undoubtedly the best crude oil benchmark and that diminishing physical volume is not an issue.
"It does not matter. Physical and paper are two different things," said Jeff Currie, global head of commodities research at Goldman Sachs, one of the most influential banks in the commodities market.
Compared with Brent, he described U.S. crude, also known as West Texas Intermediate (WTI), as "idiosyncratic" because of storage issues at Cushing, Oklahoma, the delivery point for U.S. futures, where inventories hit record levels last year.
Even assuming weakness in U.S. futures, strength in Brent futures since the start of this year has been remarkable.
"It (Brent) is definitely not perfect. But still, compared to the others that we live with -- WTI and the Asian benchmarks, which are even worse in a way -- it is clearly the best one we have," said David Wech, head of research at JBC Energy in Vienna.
Its importance has grown as new oil streams have adopted it as a benchmark.
"From Australia to Latin America, Brent is the chosen benchmark. It has proven to be the most reliable," said Wech.
FLAWED BUT VALUABLE
A benchmark, even if flawed, is essential because it is not possible to agree an outright price for every oil sale.
"For all the oil that is sold, much of it is typically on some sort of term contract, and for that you need a price basis. A benchmark fulfils that need," said Wech.
Light sweet benchmarks have been favored as they reflect the kind of crude any refinery can process. Any shift toward heavier and more sulfurous crude would be gradual as refineries grow more sophisticated and the international balance of oil production shifts.
2/ Brent futures this month leapt to a more than $9 premium per barrel over lighter and better quality WTI, which historically has traded at a premium to Brent.
They coincide with increased investment fund flows following this month's re-weighting of commodity indexes toward Brent futures and away from U.S. crude.
2/ Jorge Montepeque, a director at Platts, has not ruled out bolting on more crudes to the BFOE benchmark but said an adjustment to the futures contract, rather than adding more physical grades, could be the answer.
The Brent mechanism "was less than optimum", he said. Because of a time lag between the physical and futures markets, only 70-75 percent of Brent physical crudes are available for delivery against ICE Brent.
http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE70N25N20110124?pageNumber=1
Goldman Sachs (GS.N) says Brent is still undoubtedly the best crude oil benchmark and that diminishing physical volume is not an issue.
"It does not matter. Physical and paper are two different things," said Jeff Currie, global head of commodities research at Goldman Sachs, one of the most influential banks in the commodities market.
Compared with Brent, he described U.S. crude, also known as West Texas Intermediate (WTI), as "idiosyncratic" because of storage issues at Cushing, Oklahoma, the delivery point for U.S. futures, where inventories hit record levels last year.
Even assuming weakness in U.S. futures, strength in Brent futures since the start of this year has been remarkable.
"It (Brent) is definitely not perfect. But still, compared to the others that we live with -- WTI and the Asian benchmarks, which are even worse in a way -- it is clearly the best one we have," said David Wech, head of research at JBC Energy in Vienna.
Its importance has grown as new oil streams have adopted it as a benchmark.
"From Australia to Latin America, Brent is the chosen benchmark. It has proven to be the most reliable," said Wech.
FLAWED BUT VALUABLE
A benchmark, even if flawed, is essential because it is not possible to agree an outright price for every oil sale.
"For all the oil that is sold, much of it is typically on some sort of term contract, and for that you need a price basis. A benchmark fulfils that need," said Wech.
Light sweet benchmarks have been favored as they reflect the kind of crude any refinery can process. Any shift toward heavier and more sulfurous crude would be gradual as refineries grow more sophisticated and the international balance of oil production shifts.
2/ Brent futures this month leapt to a more than $9 premium per barrel over lighter and better quality WTI, which historically has traded at a premium to Brent.
They coincide with increased investment fund flows following this month's re-weighting of commodity indexes toward Brent futures and away from U.S. crude.
2/ Jorge Montepeque, a director at Platts, has not ruled out bolting on more crudes to the BFOE benchmark but said an adjustment to the futures contract, rather than adding more physical grades, could be the answer.
The Brent mechanism "was less than optimum", he said. Because of a time lag between the physical and futures markets, only 70-75 percent of Brent physical crudes are available for delivery against ICE Brent.
Adding 2 more at 87.75, avg 88.0
TOS is working like shit today but I have 86.72. I see while I was at the gym I got stopped out and then it continued down like we expected. Funny thing is I'm not even upset
I think I'll try a breakdown trade around LOD but other than that I'm focusing on coffee.
87.40 doesn't have a good ring to it for a low, 86.80 does. SELL3 QM's 88.1.
Futures Movers
Jan. 24, 2011, 10:04 a.m. EST
Crude-oil futures dip as traders look to Fed
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/crude-oil-futures-dip-as-traders-look-to-fed-2011-01-24
By Nick Godt, MarketWatch
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) â Crude-oil futures dropped slightly early Monday, as investors looked ahead to key economic data and the Federal Reserveâs monetary-policy meeting later this week.
McDonald's matches forecast
McDonald's earnings and efforts to stabilize European economies will move markets on Monday.
Crude-oil futures for March delivery /quotes/comstock/21n!f:cl\h11 (CLH11 88.20, -0.91, -1.02%) fell 35 cents, or 0.4%, to $88.76 a barrel.
The Fed is due to release its policy statement Wednesday. Also on the weekâs economic calendar are a key report on consumer confidence Tuesday and fourth-quarter gross domestic product Friday.
Also influencing the market were comments from Saudi Arabian Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi, who said he expects world oil demand to grow at a faster pace than current OPEC estimates, according to the J.P. Morgan energy team.
âIf Minister al-Naimi sees strong demand, it is a strong signal that Saudi Arabia sees little concern in raising supplies,â they wrote in a note.
On Friday, crude settled at a two-week low, declining for a second straight day, but a weaker dollar and rising equities shielded crude from steeper losses.
Jan. 24, 2011, 10:04 a.m. EST
Crude-oil futures dip as traders look to Fed
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/crude-oil-futures-dip-as-traders-look-to-fed-2011-01-24
By Nick Godt, MarketWatch
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) â Crude-oil futures dropped slightly early Monday, as investors looked ahead to key economic data and the Federal Reserveâs monetary-policy meeting later this week.
McDonald's matches forecast
McDonald's earnings and efforts to stabilize European economies will move markets on Monday.
Crude-oil futures for March delivery /quotes/comstock/21n!f:cl\h11 (CLH11 88.20, -0.91, -1.02%) fell 35 cents, or 0.4%, to $88.76 a barrel.
The Fed is due to release its policy statement Wednesday. Also on the weekâs economic calendar are a key report on consumer confidence Tuesday and fourth-quarter gross domestic product Friday.
Also influencing the market were comments from Saudi Arabian Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi, who said he expects world oil demand to grow at a faster pace than current OPEC estimates, according to the J.P. Morgan energy team.
âIf Minister al-Naimi sees strong demand, it is a strong signal that Saudi Arabia sees little concern in raising supplies,â they wrote in a note.
On Friday, crude settled at a two-week low, declining for a second straight day, but a weaker dollar and rising equities shielded crude from steeper losses.