CL Redux

[BCE]

Quote from riskaddict:

The only way I capture 100 tick moves is either by sleeping, playing video games or playing golf while the move is happening. When I'm watching it I always put on a hedge or scale back instead of putting the pedal to the medal like I should have when it got above 89 earlier. I think I made like 40 ticks on that hour of strength. When I think about all the correct trades that weren't even close to be maximized it makes me kind of sick. But it is also what keeps me fighting to improve. Oh yeah I just got massively short the ES!!

This was my point from yesterday afternoon. It's right there for the taking. Three out of the last 4 days had 300 or so tick moves didn't they? I guess today was only 280 or so. And we made a grand total of..............fill in the blank. We're working on it.
Did you take your profit on your puts from yesterday?

Quote from BCE:

Glad I caught the whole move today from 92 down to 88.38. And that was for 10 contracts too. I've been waiting for another day like Friday and that day was today. Oh, wait! Shoot! That was just a dream I had during my afternoon nap? Damn!

Disappointed I didn't actually catch more of the move today. Oh, well. Too many scalps. And also I was focusing on TF too, although I did well on that one. It's better to really focus on one contract and give it your full attention. Especially on days like today. And today this contract was the contract. And also I missed an hour or so in the middle of the day. It's nice to know though that the possibilities are there. We can all do the math. And then to just examine what we actually did and see what we can do to improve our entries, our holds. our stops, our exits, etc.

Hoping everyone had a good day and made some good money.

 

[BCE]

Quote from NoDoji:

My New Year Revolution is to capture at least ONE 100+-tick run this year! I will use the "See, NoDoji CAN Be A Greedy Pig" exit strategy

OK, that was the tamest NYMEX close I've seen in a long time.

Funny story: We look at 6E a while ago and say, "Wow euro's really dead." And I say, "Yeah we always say that late in the day when it's a flat pancake and then suddenly we're saying, 'Damn, look at euro!'"

My friend has a sim screen up for euro and I tell him, "In your sim account, bracket stop orders @ .3150 and .3164."

And he does, and it eventually breaks and he takes 20 ticks sim profit.

And not one of us traded it live :eek:

I was looking for that quote by George Soros or whoever it was that was saying it was great to be a pig.

It's always the trades you only sim trade that have the big moves. This is a fundamental rule of trading it seems.

 

[BCE]

Quote from NoDoji:

Don't discount the value of riding the potential test of 91.00. I just got 60 ticks long and likely left way too much on the table...

Forgot to mention. Nice trade. Even though it wasn't perfect. Nice trade none the less.

We all need to examine, as we should in all of our trades, what it is we're thinking when we pull out and leave so much more on the table. Of course it seems to be the opposite of when we're first learning and let a trade go way against us, and refuse to take even a small loss, with the hope of hopes it will come back and we won't lose so much. Or in some ways maybe it's not so much the opposite. Maybe it's fear of greed.

Also, to me at least, it's a matter of not being familiar enough with these contracts and realizing how far they can move in a short time. This is especially true on breakouts or breakdowns off a previous large move in the opposite direction.

 

[BCE]

And one more point in regard to catching more of the move. I attended a trading seminar by Larry Williams in Las Vegas probably about 10 years ago. Most of you know Larry. He's smart and funny and obviously selling his stuff. And whether you like the guy or not, one thing he pointed out during the seminar was that on a lot of trading days the low or high of the day happens in the first hour. I thought that was a very astute observation. And this would be something to look for and work on capturing. Just get on the right side of the trade like Star did yesterday shorting QM at 91.42 or whatever it was, and then just wait. He covered around 90 so that was okay. Anyway just some hopefully useful thoughts.

Larry Williams:
Williams won the 1987 World Cup Championship of Futures Trading from the Robbins Trading Company, where he turned $10,000 to over $1,100,000 (11,376%) in a 12 month competition with real money.

 

[riskaddict]

Quote from BCE:

[B
Did you take your profit on your puts from yesterday? [/B]

I took some yesterday and some this morning but left a few open and was still slightly delta negative during this whole rebound. I thought it would roll over the last 15 mins or so but nothing happened. I think I'll wait and see what happens by 11pm est and if it isn't working I'll get neutral. I went short 5 es's plus the 3 puts I had left open when I made that last post.

Sorry this has nothing to do with oil but I'm happy I'm finally able to compartmentalize individual trades with different instruments instead of saying ohh shit es is doing this so I better lighten up whatever I'm doing in coffee or oil.

 

[NoDoji]

Quote from BCE:

Forgot to mention. Nice trade. Even though it wasn't perfect. Nice trade none the less.

We all need to examine, as we should in all of our trades, what it is we're thinking when we pull out and leave so much more on the table. Of course it seems to be the opposite of when we're first learning and let a trade go way against us with the hope of hopes it will come back and we won't lose so much. Or in some ways maybe it's not so much the opposite. Maybe it's fear of greed.

Also, to me at least, it's a matter of not being familiar enough with these contracts and realizing how far they can move in a short time. This is especially true on breakouts or breakdowns off a previous large move in the opposite direction.

Thanks, and there have been many nice trades here lately, BTW, even though the counter-trend trades you guys sometimes take make my brain itch

I get out too soon sometimes because I assume price doesn't have enough strength or weakness to do more. That's my fault for not trusting my targets.

On my later 60-tick long, I wasn't displeased with my exit so much as with my failure to get long again around 90.40 or the break of the new high, because I assumed it would just range around after all that up move.

We need to keep reminding ourselves how rabid these CL trend followers are and will push price farther than you generally imagine is possible on a strong trend day.

 

[BCE]

Quote from riskaddict:

I took some yesterday and some this morning but left a few open and was still slightly delta negative during this whole rebound. I thought it would roll over the last 15 mins or so but nothing happened. I think I'll wait and see what happens by 11pm est and if it isn't working I'll get neutral. I went short 5 es's plus the 3 puts I had left open when I made that last post.

Sorry this has nothing to do with oil but I'm happy I'm finally able to compartmentalize individual trades with different instruments instead of saying ohh shit es is doing this so I better lighten up whatever I'm doing in coffee or oil.

That's good. The compartmentalize point is well taken too. That's why I keep pointing out I'm just learning how these contracts, CL and QM, trade. Every contract trades differently and doesn't even always follow the others. This was part of what I had written the other day but didn't post yet. Even among the index futures they all trade differently. TF frequently leads the others in its moves. But everyone keeps an eye on Big Daddy, ES.

Here's a chart for ES. Good to keep an eye on it. Looks like a bit of a breakout although the volume was lighter today. http://www.barchart.com/chart.php?s...ddindicator=&submitted=1&fpage=&txtDate=#jump

If the employment report on Friday is as good as the private sector report today we may continue higher although a pullback might be healthy too.

 

[BCE]

Quote from NoDoji:

Thanks, and there have been many nice trades here lately, BTW, even though the counter-trend trades you guys sometimes take make my brain itch

I get out too soon sometimes because I assume price doesn't have enough strength or weakness to do more. That's my fault for not trusting my targets.

On my later 60-tick long, I wasn't displeased with my exit so much as with my failure to get long again around 90.40 or the break of the new high, because I assumed it would just range around after all that up move.

We need to keep reminding ourselves how rabid these CL trend followers are and will push price farther than you generally imagine is possible on a strong trend day.

We do counter-trend trades because the trend trades are too easy a way of making money. Ha I read somewhere that traders tend to have a contrarian mind set and that seems to be true.

That's a good point about hitting your target and then getting back in. Sometimes I think we think, at least I do, "Well that's good enough. I made some good money on that trade." And we maybe even ad, "I don't want to give back any of the money I just made." The last one in particular is bad. We trade. We learn.

And the rabidness of the CL trend traders is another reason to be careful of counter-trades. They have to be at the right time. Try to pick a top of a breakout at your own risk. And also a bottom on breakdown moves especially right in the middle after a big move. This may just be a pause that refreshes before continuing.

BTW you have a winning hand as of this moment, Posts = Four 5's. But don't wait to post until Tuesday, my birthday, which will be on 1-11-11, Five Aces. Hey, it's my deck.

 

[BCE]

One other thing about Larry Williams is Larry talked a lot too about the importance of staying in winning positions to reap the maximum profits. This is largely how he did so well the year he made all of that money.

And as far as not entering a trade because it's already made a big move. Peter Lynch said that the biggest mistake he ever made was not buying Microsoft earlier on. He kept passing on it because he thought it had already made too big of a move to continue. He passed on it for years as it kept going and going.

 

[BCE]

Quote from NoDoji:

My New Year Revolution is to capture at least ONE 100+-tick run this year! I will use the "See, NoDoji CAN Be A Greedy Pig" exit strategy

Here's the story and quote I was looking for from George Soros.

"You call that a position?"

Q: What else have you learned from Soros?

A: I've learned many things from him, but perhaps most significant is that it's not whether you're right or wrong that's important, but how much money you make when you're right and how much you lose when you're wrong. The few times that Soros has ever criticized me was when I was really right on the market and didn't maximize the opportunity.

As an example, shortly after I had started working for Soros, I was bearish on the dollar and put on a large short position against the Deutsche mark. The position had started going in my favor and I felt rather proud of myself. Soros came into my office, and we talked about the trade.

'How big a position do you have?' he asked.
'One billion dollars,' I answered.
'You call that a position?' he said dismissingly. He encouraged me to double my position. I did, and the trade went dramatically further in our favor.

Soros has taught me that when you have tremendous conviction on a trade, you have to go for the jugular. It takes courage to be a pig. It takes courage to ride a profit with huge leverage. As far as Soros is concerned, when you're right on something, you can't own enough.

Although I was not at Soros Management at the time, I've heard that prior to the Plaza Accord meeting in the fall of 1985, other traders in the office had been piggybacking George and hence were long the yen going into the meeting. When the yen opened 800 points higher on Monday morning, these traders couldn't believe the size of their gains and anxiously started taking profits. Supposedly, George came bolting out of the door, directing the other traders to stop selling the yen, telling them that he would assume their position. While these other traders were congratulating themselves for having taken the biggest profit in their lives, Soros was looking at the big picture: The government has just told him that the dollar was going to go down the next year, so why shouldn't he be a pig and buy more?

Soros is also the best loss taker I've ever seen. He doesn't care whether he wins or loses on a trade. If a trade doesn't work he's confident enough about his ability to win on other trades that he can easily walk away from the position. There are a lot of shoes on the shelf; wear only the ones that fit. If you're extremely confident, taking a loss doesn't bother you."

__________________
We shall not cease from exploration
And the end of all our exploring
Will be to arrive where we started
And know the place for the first time
- T.S. Eliot -