Quote from AMT4SWA:
SHORT's bailed into year end today after buyers were accumulating in the 89.00's area......SHORT covering rally into thin order book and Euro rally (USD drop) = WOW today!
89.00 was about at the rising 20-day MA on the daily, the strong support there was a prime setup to the long side, though I expected continuing small swings up due to the holiday volume.
I'd shorted the morning downtrend for 3 nice swings, then positioned 3 times for a possible break of 89.00, with 3 scratch trades. I took the next with-trend short off the falling 20-bar EMA (5-min chart) even though it was no longer as high probability after all that established support. I was trapped, selling the low tick of that move, but this created my favorite setup and I flipped long for a 6-tick loss and a 20-tick gain long (top of the channel exit, where EON shorted), and took a break, returned to see more strength as the channel broke out.
So I went long again for a test of the overnight high, took the 30 ticks as price appeared to stall after breaking through 90.00, and if ever there was price action that gave NO sign of weakness this was it, and I never did re-enter long again until above 91.30.
In retrospect (where all trades are perfect), there was no reason to exit my initial 89.32 long at any point (not even now as you can see).