CL Redux

sim

long .27

Gunning for a break of [Edit: RTH - .50-ish] HOD
- probably a failed attempt below the overnight HOD

:19 stop to be (was 10 ticks)

:21 stop trailed to .43

:22 stopped out at .43 (+16; rolling +6 after comms).

Over .50 was a good target, but (based on volume) I thought/think it had/has one more push to the upside.
 
does anybody here know how the uso rolls these days, and if they only use the front month, or a combo of 2,3 months on a rolling basis, and if possible time frame when they roll....this would be great info to take into account......haven`t discovered the answer yet in my research.....but that 8 dollar move last rolling period caught my attention.
 
Roll Dates are projected and subject to change without notice. Roll Dates are the expected dates on which the composition of the Benchmark Futures Contract is changed or ''rolled'' by selling the near month contract and buying the next month contract. The change occurs over four days.
Roll Start Roll End
November 6, 2009 November 11, 2009
December 7, 2009 December 10, 2009
January 6, 2010 January 11, 2010
February 8, 2010 February 11, 2010
March 8, 2010 March 11, 2010
April 6, 2010 April 9, 2010
May 6, 2010 May 11, 2010
June 8, 2010 June 11, 2010
July 6, 2010 July 9, 2010
August 6, 2010 August 11, 2010
September 7, 2010 September 10, 2010
October 6, 2010 October 11, 2010
November 5, 2010 November 10, 2010
December 6, 2010 December 9, 2010
 
Quote from Picaso:

Dejavu, if it's difficult for you to post real-time because you trade in a very short time-frame, then post <i>in advance</i>, as in "will fade a test of 80.00, 10 tick target, will average down" or something like that. If you just want to post your P&L that's fine too, but there's another thread for that. This one is for (near) real-time trades.

I'm with you 100% on the siestas, though. :D

Also, in your defense: Rule number 6) of Schizo's thread: Don't preach how others should trade and refrain from condescension of any kind.
More...

Out of respect for the OP rules of this thread, I'll just add this much before unsubscribing.

Anyone who claims to trade anything with 100% win rate, no losses ever, no stress in averaging down=against to the point where it's so boring that a nap is necessary, is without question completely full of sh*t. For whatever personal reasons, they are lying out their a**.

Period, end of story.

The only reason I ever posted here in the first place is the fact that there are people I care about here in this thread who read such drivel and try to wander down that path of trading themselves. Then they blow out big losses, and email me wondering what they did wrong.

Ask any veteran trader who you respect in this site, anywhere on the web, your broker whom you trust, etc if they know anyone with 100% win rates, no losses, averaging against in crude oil (of all markets) and find it so mundane that they doze off at the keyboards.

I'm pretty sure what the response will be from all of those market veterans with zero exceptions. But go ahead and ask anyway, because I already know very few people will listen to me. It ain't the message most people want to hear, so it ain't well received at all.

Pretty much all I have to add here of any consequence. Good luck to all in your quest for consistency and excellence. Many roads head the wrong way in this profession... especially the ones that seem most scenic and alluring to your heart's greatest desire.
 
Quote from austinp:

The only reason I ever posted here in the first place is the fact that there are people I care about here in this thread who read such drivel and try to wander down that path of trading themselves. Then they blow out big losses, and email me wondering what they did wrong.

Ask any veteran trader who you respect in this site, anywhere on the web, your broker whom you trust, etc if they know anyone with 100% win rates, no losses, averaging against in crude oil (of all markets) and find it so mundane that they doze off at the keyboards.

I'm pretty sure what the response will be from all of those market veterans with zero exceptions. But go ahead and ask anyway, because I already know very few people will listen to me. It ain't the message most people want to hear, so it ain't well received at all.
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Seriously, averaging down is indeed an alluring path (wow, no losses!) of eventual destruction. Every trader wants security and perfection, to know that a setup is so good it just HAS to work out, guaranteed! I've actually had people ask me, "But how do you KNOW it's going to do this and not that?"

Answer: You don't. You NEVER know. Ever.

I know a lot of people think there are these master traders holding a holy grail that allows them to trade with no losses, or at least no losing days ever. I had a brief moment of disappointment when I found out that my mentor sometimes has losing trades, and sometimes (gasp!) exits trades too soon and leaves profits on the table! Oh no, you mean we're all just human?
 
Quote from austinp:

Out of respect for the OP rules of this thread, I'll just add this much before unsubscribing.

Anyone who claims to trade anything with 100% win rate, no losses ever, no stress in averaging down=against to the point where it's so boring that a nap is necessary, is without question completely full of sh*t. For whatever personal reasons, they are lying out their a**.

Period, end of story.

The only reason I ever posted here in the first place is the fact that there are people I care about here in this thread who read such drivel and try to wander down that path of trading themselves. Then they blow out big losses, and email me wondering what they did wrong.

Ask any veteran trader who you respect in this site, anywhere on the web, your broker whom you trust, etc if they know anyone with 100% win rates, no losses, averaging against in crude oil (of all markets) and find it so mundane that they doze off at the keyboards.

I'm pretty sure what the response will be from all of those market veterans with zero exceptions. But go ahead and ask anyway, because I already know very few people will listen to me. It ain't the message most people want to hear, so it ain't well received at all.

Pretty much all I have to add here of any consequence. Good luck to all in your quest for consistency and excellence. Many roads head the wrong way in this profession... especially the ones that seem most scenic and alluring to your heart's greatest desire.
More...

Since for some reason you quote me here, please let me refresh your memory:

10-28-10 04:16 PM

Quote from dejavu8:

due to limited range of CL, this position can be averaged down with 10 more contracts for a 10+ tick exit with profit.


Quote from Picaso:

My apologies if I'm mistaken, but what are you selling?
More...


I thought this had been settled, though. :confused:
 
Well, some key dates:

Last day trading=20th
(I think I roll the 16th)

QM Last day trading the 17th

CL Options expire the 15th

be careful the 10-14th as front runners try to get out early, and take profits--and bulls have lots of profit since the last roll to protect, and open interest is extradordinarily high right now.

about 7 days before the last expiration (give or take)...we had an 8 dollar sell-off in 4 days-----i don`t attribut this to china---as the market seems to be trading just fine even after china increased reserves by 50 basis poits--not 25 as thought, they have since made a monetary shift statement, and are expected to actually raise interest rates this weekend.

If we sell off b/c of rollover---expect china to be the excuse.

but all I know is there are a whole bunch of new longs who need to sell jan, and buy feb....and unlike me they don`t rollover asap-they seem to close out positions---let the market fall---and after the fall-then initiate new longs a couple days later in the next month contract-this is what I will be paying close attention to starting maybe this thursday night.
 
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