Quote from NoEmotions:
Thanks for that.
A) I am planning on adding more filters and increase my confidence when I actually pull the trigger.
I am looking at 5 min and 1 min chart, I think timeframe is ok.
B) typically CL makes few nice moves a day e.g. today 1 nice move from 11:35 onwards.
if I can only grab 20 ticks of that move I think I should be happy rather than spend entire day making 20 trades and BE or worst lose.
I am ready to miss few good trends if I can catch some other few good trends.
cuz few things I have noticed in my style of trading
1) the more trades I do the more I lose ( or increase my chances to lose ).
2) the more trades I do , I lose more confidence , there is extreme lack of confidence before I pull the trigger.
NoEmotions,
A) OK, but remember that if you trade automatically, more filters tend to lead to over-fitting and if you trade discretionarily, they tend to hamper your ability to pull the trigger (in fact, I'd say that having more numerous and more complex entry conditions is one of the leading causes of picking and choosing trades).
B) Well, yes, any rational person will take +20 over +0 or negative any day. However, if you limit yourself to one +20 tick trade, what stop will you use and when will you stop trading for the day if losing? If you take 20 ticks out of a >100 tick move will you <i>really</i> feel happy?
1) Tell it to Nodoji: the more trades she takes, she makes more money. If your system/style has a positive expectancy, the higher % of "signaled" trades you take, the more money you will make; if your system has a negative expectancy, well, then you shouldn't be taking any trades at all. A higher number of trades to capture an equal number of ticks will increase your trade attrition (commissions and slippage as a percentage of your p&l), but will not influence your chances of winning/losing (as long as those trades are called for by your system/style; i.e. you're getting a signal, not putting a revenge trade because you got stopped out or missed a fill by a tick, etc.).
2) If you put on 100 trades and 90% were profitable with a R:R ratio of 5 to 1 and you made $2,730 would you be more or less confident than if you put on 10 trades, had only a small winner, 5 breakevens and 4 mid-size losers, losing $385? IMO, confidence has nothing to do with the number of trades you put on. Your confidence will be affected first by your ability to implement your plan (every trade you're supposed to take and yet you don't and every trade you put on without it being called for will undermine your confidence - and viceversa) and then by whether your plan (when you follow it) delivers the expected results or not.
Just sharing my (painful) experience, not telling you how to trade or anything. Best trading to you.


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