CL Redux

[jones247]

I've always been attracted to the "Averaging Down" strategy, especially with Martingale... However, with the backtesting of outlyer events (i.e. Black Swans), which validated the writings of Taleb and confirmed the outcomes of Victor Niederhoffer and LTCM, I had to force myself away from this Highly Addictive methodology.

In short, it works wonderfully... until it doesn't. And when it doesn't work, it's VERY PAINFUL...

... just my 2 cents from my experience.

Walt

 

[i_c_fed_people]

Quote from startraitor:

Quote from schizo:



7a) Opening Trades:
From now on, all opening trades MUST be posted in realtime. No exception.

That'd be cool.

This threads getting a bit like the ones on forexfactory where everyone just posts after the fact that they made a million ticks on any given day, lol.

 

[dejavu8]

Quote from jones247:

I've always been attracted to the "Averaging Down" strategy, especially with Martingale... However, with the backtesting of outlyer events (i.e. Black Swans), which validated the writings of Taleb and confirmed the outcomes of Victor Niederhoffer and LTCM, I had to force myself away from this Highly Addictive methodology.

In short, it works wonderfully... until it doesn't. And when it doesn't work, it's VERY PAINFUL...

... just my 2 cents from my experience.

Walt

i never average down at non-reversal zone, and never average down with Martingale for CL, this might be the main difference between my method and regular average down. i always use this to accumulate larger size position in reversal zone to get better profit in order to increase trading efficiency.

 

[riskaddict]

Just for my own clarity is it cool to post limit orders like I did yesterday evening? With real time trades if I don't have time to post I just don't post.

 

[Picaso]

Quote from EON Kid:

sell till the open then a buy then a sell at noon

So far so good!

----

Quote from riskaddict:

Just for my own clarity is it cool to post limit orders like I did yesterday evening? With real time trades if I don't have time to post I just don't post.

RA, nobody is questioning the way <i>you</i> post your trades.

---

Quote from NoDoji:

No, it's just an informal Skype group on a mutual quest for the Holy Grail:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9V7zbWNznbs

That cow is what I'd call a black swan! ROFLMAO

 

[i_c_fed_people]

Quote from riskaddict:

Just for my own clarity is it cool to post limit orders like I did yesterday evening? With real time trades if I don't have time to post I just don't post.

absolutely!
I think its the old 'ok finished trading for the day, As usual, made my 180 ticks" posts that people object too, lol.

 

[dejavu8]

Quote from i_c_fed_people:

absolutely!
I think its the old 'ok finished trading for the day, As usual, made my 180 ticks" posts that people object too, lol.

nice to see any post regarding to good trades, no matter real-time or not. for longer time frame swing trader, it's easy to post real time, but for others, it's not that easy to post real time.

 

[Picaso]

Quote from dejavu8:

nice to see any post regarding to good trades, no matter real-time or not. for longer time frame swing trader, it's easy to post real time, but for others, it's not that easy to post real time.

Dejavu, if it's difficult for you to post real-time because you trade in a very short time-frame, then post <i>in advance</i>, as in "will fade a test of 80.00, 10 tick target, will average down" or something like that. If you just want to post your P&L that's fine too, but there's another thread for that. This one is for (near) real-time trades.

I'm with you 100% on the siestas, though.

Also, in your defense: Rule number 6) of Schizo's thread: Don't preach how others should trade and refrain from condescension of any kind.

 

[jones247]

Fair enough... btw, what's your "uncle point" - how much drawdown before you book the unrealized loss? For example, earlier this morning you entered about 7 long trades from 80.73 down to 80.33, then the market reversed and gave you a nice profit. However, if the market was in a nose dive due to some geopolitical event (i.e. North Korea), where would you look to say "that's enough pain, I'm now getting out"?

Please understand, I'm in awe of your "intestinal fortitude"... I wish I had the guts/bravery to average down while taking heat. I'm just too afraid of losing 6 months of gains in one trading sequence...

Quote from dejavu8:

i never average down at non-reversal zone, and never average down with Martingale for CL, this might be the main difference between my method and regular average down. i always use this to accumulate larger size position in reversal zone to get better profit in order to increase trading efficiency.

 

[dejavu8]

Quote from Picaso:

then post <i>in advance</i>, as in "will fade a test of 80.00, 10 tick target, will average down" or something like that.

thanks for the comments, just back from a nap, and took a four cars fading jump...i wish i could post something in advance but my system offers many level reversal zone which is not an accurate figure.

Quote from jones247:

Fair enough... btw, what's your "uncle point" - how much drawdown before you book the unrealized loss? For example, earlier this morning you entered about 7 long trades from 80.73 down to 80.33, then the market reversed and gave you a nice profit. However, if the market was in a nose dive due to some geopolitical event (i.e. North Korea), where would you look to say "that's enough pain, I'm now getting out"?

it's not a fixed figure but i guess it's about 10k which is about my three days profit now. to be honest, i don't think it could happen once a year...