CL Redux
- Thread starter schizo
- Start date
Normally I place my stops outside the overnight high/low a long time in advance, but if I leave my desk I take them off.
On the overnight low of 81.31, I didn't have a sell stop in advance. But when I saw price coming back in to test that level I threw in a sell stop 17 seconds before the breakout (I actually checked my audit trail because it felt like I threw it on at the last second and I was surprised there was no slippage at all). By the way, that trade had a very quick full retracement back through the breakout level. The move was so fast my finger slipped off the mouse button and I was out out for 14 ticks profit instead of the 20 I was aiming to lock in. I missed the next breakout of 81.06 for reasons I refuse to disclose and that was a trade where you simply couldn't have netted LESS than 30 ticks profit even if you were forced to trade by hitting keys with a stick held between your teeth
I can't emphasize enough the value of placing buy/sell stops at key levels in advance in that it removes the big fat overthinking brain from the equation. If I wait for a key level with the intention of throwing in a marketable limit order, there is the danger I'll hesitate and miss the entry point, or price will just run without me and leave my order unfilled, or I'll find some reason why the setup suddenly just isn't that good. With the order ready in advance, voila! you're in the position and that's that.
I use IB Booktrader. Do you use button trader and if so, what's your opinion?
Quote from gov:
the conversion happens when you truly believe the future is not knowable. We have such a problem with that as a concept, as though we hate it with all our being. Start thinking you know the outcome, and you have already slipped. That belief in chaos set me free. Without having to think I can act simply and quickly on probabilities, without all the drama.
babykutten posted a link to a psychology video Develop Your Mental Edge by Dr. Andrew Menaker on Matcha's Dow E-mini Journal
My take away from that video was words to the effect:
It's more important to do whats right in markets than to be proven right by them.
This is part of why we all at times tend over think things. Bias harms way more than it helps. We struggle with ego, which has no value or place in trading at all. Account balance is the only score card that matters.
Great advice (as always). Watching you all trade CL has made me realize its a game for the Quick and the Dead (not so quick). Every advantage helps.
the conversion happens when you truly believe the future is not knowable. We have such a problem with that as a concept, as though we hate it with all our being. Start thinking you know the outcome, and you have already slipped. That belief in chaos set me free. Without having to think I can act simply and quickly on probabilities, without all the drama.
babykutten posted a link to a psychology video Develop Your Mental Edge by Dr. Andrew Menaker on Matcha's Dow E-mini Journal
My take away from that video was words to the effect:
It's more important to do whats right in markets than to be proven right by them.
This is part of why we all at times tend over think things. Bias harms way more than it helps. We struggle with ego, which has no value or place in trading at all. Account balance is the only score card that matters.
Great advice (as always). Watching you all trade CL has made me realize its a game for the Quick and the Dead (not so quick). Every advantage helps.
Sunday Night: Short bias with mostly sideways action
Monday Day: 3 econ reports should be interpreted slightly positive-my take we get slight boost from reports but all fadeable rally`s
Tuesday: Election energy and new money coming into market-again slightly positive, bat short any moves.
Wednesday: slightly bullish on jobs reports & econ data, but will probably have a bearish approach towards this weeks inventory report which I expect just starts to reinforce the fact that supply is rising not shrinking---the selloff could be tempered by an allout trillion dollar shock and all, or exacerbated if it is only 500 million or so spread out over several purchases.
Thursday: Continued follow through from analysis of fed decision and its impact
Friday: I think we get a nice jobs report should finish the week with some bump or atleast soften the descent if we get technical breakdown of crude which we very easily could this next week if the fed is tempered and everybody sells on the news in combo with Oil inventories at their highest point in 2010.
Of course trade what the charts are telling you, but have some background assumptions as parts of the puzzle.
Any selloff shouldn`t be crazy as republicans will win 1 house, and we are in the tech runnup of nov-dec-jan, plus i expect the job picture to be better for the next couple of reports from such a low base.
This bullish support will be contrasted by the fact if inventories keep rising due to china slowing, india seems to be importing less, and everybody and their uncle is cheating on quotas, not to mention the non-opec countries....we could literally be swimming in crude--and that is the difference beyween gold and silver and crude---it is a lot harder to store crude.
If we have any terrorist or european debt re-emergence-the dollar could strengthen, and then cl is a sell.
You never know with crude because as it pulls back this brings in new sellers and vice versa: but the bulk of the range should be between 75-85 for the next 4 months.
There is the possibility of an upside breakout for 2011, but demand needs to pick up so the inflation trade can be working in full force.
I do expect inflation expectations to rise as the fed is trying to stimulate just this effect, target if you will higher inflation for 2011.
Monday Day: 3 econ reports should be interpreted slightly positive-my take we get slight boost from reports but all fadeable rally`s
Tuesday: Election energy and new money coming into market-again slightly positive, bat short any moves.
Wednesday: slightly bullish on jobs reports & econ data, but will probably have a bearish approach towards this weeks inventory report which I expect just starts to reinforce the fact that supply is rising not shrinking---the selloff could be tempered by an allout trillion dollar shock and all, or exacerbated if it is only 500 million or so spread out over several purchases.
Thursday: Continued follow through from analysis of fed decision and its impact
Friday: I think we get a nice jobs report should finish the week with some bump or atleast soften the descent if we get technical breakdown of crude which we very easily could this next week if the fed is tempered and everybody sells on the news in combo with Oil inventories at their highest point in 2010.
Of course trade what the charts are telling you, but have some background assumptions as parts of the puzzle.
Any selloff shouldn`t be crazy as republicans will win 1 house, and we are in the tech runnup of nov-dec-jan, plus i expect the job picture to be better for the next couple of reports from such a low base.
This bullish support will be contrasted by the fact if inventories keep rising due to china slowing, india seems to be importing less, and everybody and their uncle is cheating on quotas, not to mention the non-opec countries....we could literally be swimming in crude--and that is the difference beyween gold and silver and crude---it is a lot harder to store crude.
If we have any terrorist or european debt re-emergence-the dollar could strengthen, and then cl is a sell.
You never know with crude because as it pulls back this brings in new sellers and vice versa: but the bulk of the range should be between 75-85 for the next 4 months.
There is the possibility of an upside breakout for 2011, but demand needs to pick up so the inflation trade can be working in full force.
I do expect inflation expectations to rise as the fed is trying to stimulate just this effect, target if you will higher inflation for 2011.
I started trading CL live in April and by mid-May I settled into a particular set of strategies, spent a huge amount of time studying and honing them, and traded CL almost exclusively with few exceptions.
I trade for a living and am also very much a work-in-progress.
My monthly net (rounded down) since focusing on CL are as follows:
June: 700 ticks
July: 600 ticks
August: 1000 ticks
September: 1200 ticks
October-to-date: 1600 ticks
The improvement over time was the result of learning to let winners run by implementing a 20-tick minimum profit target that I've adhered to with very few exceptions. The vast majority of my trades have been 1 lot.
I believe that 2000 ticks per month/contract is very attainable and once I achieve that level it will indicate that I'm trading fully with a trader's mindset at which point I will do exactly what got me there, except with larger size.
ND,
On most days when the pit opens at 8 cst, especially on any news days like this fridays jobs number at 7:30 there will be at least 3 big moves, and the biggest moves (length wise) usually happen in the early part of the pit open after a big news event, have you ever thought about having a minimum 40, 50, 60 point target for minimum profit to keep you in these trades, as it seems there are some 40 and 40 point retracements but if you stay in the trade there are a lot of 80,90,120 point moves early on, have you thought about having different targets for different times and calculated your increased stop outs versus hitting these larger moves consistently....just a strategy discussion.
I trade for a living and am also very much a work-in-progress.
My monthly net (rounded down) since focusing on CL are as follows:
June: 700 ticks
July: 600 ticks
August: 1000 ticks
September: 1200 ticks
October-to-date: 1600 ticks
The improvement over time was the result of learning to let winners run by implementing a 20-tick minimum profit target that I've adhered to with very few exceptions. The vast majority of my trades have been 1 lot.
I believe that 2000 ticks per month/contract is very attainable and once I achieve that level it will indicate that I'm trading fully with a trader's mindset at which point I will do exactly what got me there, except with larger size.
ND,
On most days when the pit opens at 8 cst, especially on any news days like this fridays jobs number at 7:30 there will be at least 3 big moves, and the biggest moves (length wise) usually happen in the early part of the pit open after a big news event, have you ever thought about having a minimum 40, 50, 60 point target for minimum profit to keep you in these trades, as it seems there are some 40 and 40 point retracements but if you stay in the trade there are a lot of 80,90,120 point moves early on, have you thought about having different targets for different times and calculated your increased stop outs versus hitting these larger moves consistently....just a strategy discussion.
Because I trade for a living I need to lock in a minimum profit of $300/day just to cover monthly expenses. I want capture the "meat" of intraday swings in CL, building up profit throughout the session. If I'm looking at an unrealized gain of 30-, 40-, or 50- ticks and hold through the retrace for the full point or better that it "might" make, and then it stops me out b/e, psychologically I'm now under too much pressure to trade effectively, because I've missed two great swings from which I could've extracted 60 or 80 ticks, and I have that much less opportunity from which to derive my paycheck that day.
I now have between 8-12 trades a day working the swings and that allows me to have several max losses and still come out profitable when all is said and done.
Quote from EON Kid:
Its going on the inside cover of my journal. Very few receive such an honor.
thanks Gov
You folks are too kind; really, glad if I can help in some small way. You too, NoDoji. Soon we'll be livin' high and wide...
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__________________
grizzled old veteran
Hi all! Just wanted to share a bit. One of my daughters made the news (east coast) and I thought I might share a picture with everyone. She's the lovely girl there with the small "E" on her tummy wearing ballet flats! We are very proud of her. This is from today's game against Harvard. Sadly, we lost 30-14. We'll get 'em next time!
All the best,
gov
This is from today's game against Harvard. Sadly, we lost 30-14. We'll get 'em next time!All the best,
gov
Nice - A Proud Dad You Must Be For Sure
Just found out this week I'm gonna be a grandpa in the spring
Just found out this week I'm gonna be a grandpa in the spring
BlueStreek - Nice analysis for next week. I posted some hourly charts about 20 pages ago regarding the CL / $ relationship. Here a some dailies which call the current relationship into some question. Sorry about the quality - doing this from work, cant run chart pkg on my laptop and I'm not planning to pay for DX quotes (or to trade it).
The positive correlation of the first half of the year was in place despite bearish supply. CL fell apart with $ selling and QE as the new focus. The best justification for small QE is better data prints for the US economy. My instinct is crude has to break on way or the other from its current level. I think the Fed will be restrained which means a break downward.
I'm just coming back to trading. Had my hand on the mouse a few times but not quite ready. I may start posting sim here. My problem is I don't have full time access due to work. Leaves me little choice but to come back as a swing trader. Day trading is a safer activity right now. Watching CL this week, I missed a nice pop in NG. Even if CL breaks down or stays in narrow chop, there is a good chance the NG seasonal will remain a good play.
The positive correlation of the first half of the year was in place despite bearish supply. CL fell apart with $ selling and QE as the new focus. The best justification for small QE is better data prints for the US economy. My instinct is crude has to break on way or the other from its current level. I think the Fed will be restrained which means a break downward.
I'm just coming back to trading. Had my hand on the mouse a few times but not quite ready. I may start posting sim here. My problem is I don't have full time access due to work. Leaves me little choice but to come back as a swing trader. Day trading is a safer activity right now. Watching CL this week, I missed a nice pop in NG. Even if CL breaks down or stays in narrow chop, there is a good chance the NG seasonal will remain a good play.