CL Redux
- Thread starter schizo
- Start date
Blox, while Nodoji is totally right, as usual, you're only reading part of the story:
Crude +5.0M vs. consensus of +0.7M. Gasoline -4.4M vs. consensus of -0.2M. Distillates -1.6M vs. consensus of -1M.
What matters is the total number vs. expectations. Yes, crude had a bigger than expected buildup (about +4.3), but gasoline had a much bigger draw than expected (-4.2 to -5, depending on the consensus you take). Distillates stocks were also lower than expected. So based on that, the report was neutral to bullish (if you consider that you need more barrels of oils - google gas crack spread - to refine an equal number of barrels of gas, then it would be moderately bullish to quite bullish).
Anyway, it's probably better to simply trade what you see and not what you think.
short .20
sim
We probably stay within this range, but playing for an upside breakout and successive series of stop-runs
Long .31
Will add within the range or on its bo.
Stop 20 ticks
:57 stop to be
:57 added at .43 avg .37 & stop to be
:59 bid .51 to add on a pullback to the top of the range/prev LOD & stop moved to anticipated be at .42
Target: a test of 82.20 (or a pop of 82.00)
:02 upped bid to .55 and be to .45
ES at mini resistance, but if euro pops 10 ticks we should see a pop in oil over .80 (2nd stops zone)
:07 didn't get my third unit filled at .55 (would have got if I had raised it a tad before). Out at .87 on trailed stop after not seeing the pop I was expecting at the .80s and entering the lotto-close which should attract short traders; 50 ticks from avg. price x 2 cars = $990 sim bucks after sim commissions.
Edit: if I had got filled at .55 (it hit .53 while I was bidding .51 - it wasn't out of the woods yet, so I didn't want to chase and get stopped out at be) that would have been another 32 ticks or about 1,300 USD, which is what I would consider a "half-er" or a trade in which I target about half a point from my average price adding at about +10 and +20, as opposed to a "full-house"
where I target a whole point from the point of entry, adding at about +20 and +30/40, with an average of +/-80 ticks. It works fine in testing - seriously
We probably stay within this range, but playing for an upside breakout and successive series of stop-runs
Long .31
Will add within the range or on its bo.
Stop 20 ticks
:57 stop to be
:57 added at .43 avg .37 & stop to be
:59 bid .51 to add on a pullback to the top of the range/prev LOD & stop moved to anticipated be at .42
Target: a test of 82.20 (or a pop of 82.00)
:02 upped bid to .55 and be to .45
ES at mini resistance, but if euro pops 10 ticks we should see a pop in oil over .80 (2nd stops zone)
:07 didn't get my third unit filled at .55 (would have got if I had raised it a tad before). Out at .87 on trailed stop after not seeing the pop I was expecting at the .80s and entering the lotto-close which should attract short traders; 50 ticks from avg. price x 2 cars = $990 sim bucks after sim commissions.
Edit: if I had got filled at .55 (it hit .53 while I was bidding .51 - it wasn't out of the woods yet, so I didn't want to chase and get stopped out at be) that would have been another 32 ticks or about 1,300 USD, which is what I would consider a "half-er" or a trade in which I target about half a point from my average price adding at about +10 and +20, as opposed to a "full-house"
where I target a whole point from the point of entry, adding at about +20 and +30/40, with an average of +/-80 ticks. It works fine in testing - seriously 