CL Redux

What's your read, Kid?

Nod, too low to short? :D

Edit:

sim

stop-limit to go short at .74

Will add on pullbacks.

Target 80 flat

:18 filled at .72 & stop to be

:21 add .63 stop to be at .68 but looks like I'm going to get stopped out.

:22 stopped out be.

Still pissed off at my losing live trade - plan was short a test of 81.40 target 80.60. It seemed it was not going to get above .20 so I shorted, then on the pop right after I entered at .18 I thought of adding at .28, but instead tightened the stop to 11 ticks (+1 slippage) = 12 ticks loss on what was essentially a by the book trade for me. :(

I wish I took my losses like a man, but what can you do? :D

That's 43 in a row. Uncroyable. (My biggest losing streak so far had been 17 small loss/BE in a row, but that was trading bonds with a 6-half-ticks stop and adding aggressively 3 times (4 entries), so I was getting stopped out on the add-ons (i.e. the strategy was flawed, it would have worked fine with a bit wider stop and 2-3 entries); here I'm getting stopped out on the first entry! :eek:

I hope they give me a plaque or something.
 
Old news - IEA weekly says:

U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) increased by 5.0 million barrels from the previous week. At 366.2 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are above the upper limit of the average range for this time of year. Total motor gasoline inventories decreased by 4.4 million barrels last week and are above the upper limit of the average range. Both finished gasoline inventories and blending components inventories decreased last week. Distillate fuel inventories decreased by 1.6 million barrels and are above the upper boundary of the average range for this time of year. Propane/propylene inventories increased by 0.7 million barrels last week and are near the lower limit of the average range. Total commercial petroleum inventories increased by 0.6 million barrels last week.


It's interesting that NG is holding a bid the only + in the complex - Not as much international ($) exposure because it's a domestic market.
 
Quote from Picaso:

Nod, too low to short? :D
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I had my buy and sell stops in place early on, but didn't have a hard 20-tick target and it stopped me out b/e after 21 ticks :(
 
I'm still a noob in relative terms to Oil. That being said, I would think 5 million barrels inventory would clue bearishness in the near future? If not then apparently it doesn't trade according to fundamentals. How does oil usually react to inventories?

Anyone notice any correlations they would be willing to share regarding inventory number release . Such as percentage rise or fall of price from the time of the release to the close of the day? High inventory # / percentage drop into close stats ect.
 
Quote from blox87:

I'm still a noob in relative terms to Oil. That being said, I would think 5 million barrels inventory would clue bearishness in the near future? If not then apparently it doesn't trade according to fundamentals. How does oil usually react to inventories?
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I've noticed CL runs up hard on "bearish" report and sells off hard on "bullish" report. Clearly there is secret info in those reports other than face value.
 
Quote from startraitor:

No balls to pick a side with $$ but looks more like a short.
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I'm thinking same thing for the big picture, but nothing to hang the hat on here.
 
If we had access to the intelligence assets the commercials and specs employ we would privy to the tradable secrets as well.


Quote from NoDoji:

I've noticed CL runs up hard on "bearish" report and sells off hard on "bullish" report. Clearly there is secret info in those reports other than face value.
More...
 
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