CL Redux

[Picaso]

Quote from frank8800:

I'm reworking my trading plan, essentially starting over. I'm thinking out loud in my posts here (I hope it's not too annoying for more experienced traders), so any feedback or criticism is welcomed.

Frank, I wasn't criticizing your trading, just making a comment - which I did because it was a sim trade, I think it's bad manners second-guessing people's trades when they're risking money and one's safely on the sidelines.

Posting your trades and logic behind them cannot be annoying to anyone, that's what the thread is for.

Regarding your moving to be or not, that's been discussed a lot in many threads here. Personally I tend to move to be very quickly - many times simply too son. Still my view is that if you're targeting 20 ticks risking also 20 and you're 5 ticks away from your target now you're risking 35 to make 5. Then again, some people don't touch their stops even if they're one tick away from their target and it works for them. Just make sure you backtest trailing or not on a large enough sample and don't decide on it based on your last couple of trades.

Good trading to you.

 

[EON Kid]

Quote from riskaddict:

I saw 74.85 because it still gives me a positive R:R for where I want to start scaling out and it's just above Tuesday's high and it has room to mess around the .50 area if it wants to.

Its right at Mondays high and a nice target imo

 

[mrbochin23]

Quote from EON Kid:

Its right at Mondays high and a nice target imo

Yes It could be, make sense.

Look at the chart here


http://www.charthub.com/images/2010/09/02/CLV0_MP.png

The second to last is the MP of the overnight session, and the third to last is yesterday session. Look how the letter E which is the time frame of 11:00-11:30 on today MP, goes in on yesterday MP Value area and once it gets in it never comes back to the opening of that range.

You could also see the big belly that was develop in that are yesterday session. when you see single prints in the extremes, means is price rejection. When you see single prints in the middle of yesterday session, it's most likely that today or tomorrow we explorer those prices because MP hates to leave single prints in the middle (that means panic sale or buy).

 

[mrbochin23]

Quote from mrbochin23:

Yes It could be, make sense.

Look at the chart here


http://www.charthub.com/images/2010/09/02/CLV0_MP.png

The second to last is the MP of the overnight session, and the third to last is yesterday session. Look how the letter E which is the time frame of 11:00-11:30 on today MP, goes in on yesterday MP Value area and once it gets in it never comes back to the opening of that range.

You could also see the big belly that was develop in that are yesterday session. when you see single prints in the extremes, means is price rejection. When you see single prints in the middle of yesterday session, it's most likely that today or tomorrow we explorer those prices because MP hates to leave single prints in the middle (that means panic sale or buy).

I left a lot in the table, but better a profit than a lost

 

[mrbochin23]

Quote from Picaso:

Go get them Mr. Bochin!

Could you explain later why the 73.55 stop? Is it sort of a fixed stop or is it based on your MP? Thank you in advance.

It's base on MP/fixed stop.

The top of the first 15 min opening range was 73.63 I usually put my stops 10 ticks under the OR if I go for the breakout, and the rule of 80% on MP saids to put your stop .20 outside the Value area.

That's why if the Value Are is small like let say 0.30 I won't take it because the risk/reward ratio is 0.20/0.30 and in my mind is not worth it.

I just want to remind you that I am not a master at this I am still learning.

 

[schizo]

Damn, they almost got me. Let see if they can succeed this time.

JUST WHAT IF...this damn thing falls back down to 68 from here?

How can anyone possibly swing trade?

 

[JPope]

I still wouldnt rule it out...this thing has some attitude this week.

 

[Picaso]

Quote from riskaddict:

Would 74.85 be a logical place for a stop?

74.87 is Schizo's stop (I think), but it was based on his entry (be).

 

[EON Kid]

Quote from Picaso:

74.87 is Schizo's stop (I think), but it was based on his entry (be).

ah ha, a cluster of stops, we'll have to pass this info to the T-day boyz

 

[bearmountain]

Quote from mrbochin23:

Look at the chart here


http://www.charthub.com/images/2010/09/02/CLV0_MP.png

You could also see the big belly that was develop in that are yesterday session. when you see single prints in the extremes, means is price rejection. When you see single prints in the middle of yesterday session, it's most likely that today or tomorrow we explorer those prices because MP hates to leave single prints in the middle (that means panic sale or buy).

Value area for today:

VAH: 74.36
VAL:73.76


Thank you for posting the chart.

How did you calculate todays value area? I am curious about the VAH of 74.36, in the chart (showing 9/1) there is not much activity above 74.05 yesterday. Thanks.