CL Redux

[cstfx]

Question for those that play the rollover game:

when rolling forward on experiration, does the new front month gravitate toward the expiring month's exit levels or does the part contract make a last effort for parity on it's way out? Right now there is a spread of about 85 cents between July and august so my question is does July move to close the gap up or does august move to close the gap down?

 

[mrbochin23]

Quote from cstfx:

Question for those that play the rollover game:

when rolling forward on experiration, does the new front month gravitate toward the expiring month's exit levels or does the part contract make a last effort for parity on it's way out? Right now there is a spread of about 85 cents between July and august so my question is does July move to close the gap up or does august move to close the gap down?

I don't know exactly when it's in con-tango, but when spot month is higher, the next month, you literally make money free rolling over with a week of expiration.

 

[BlueStreek]

my first blush before today`s action was that the expiring would be stronger, and the new front month would be sold down a little, a lot weaker feel than the expiring during trading.

But I frankly didn`t expect the euro to be susceptable to a run below 1.23....tonight we could see 122.50 during europe, and under that scenario the august goes to at least 77.50, so not sure what the level of support for july is since i haven`t traded that contract for 4 days now.

maybe 76.20 area to 75.50 on expiring, but where it closes at 1:30..is a crapshoot.......it will move all over the place from 1:00 to 1:30 tomorrow.

 

[BlueStreek]

i want to be long cl on fed day, as helicopter ben reminds people of the inflation trade, so i look to buy any meaningful pullback between now and then.

 

[DarthSidious]

Quote from mrbochin23:I don't know exactly when it's in con-tango, but when spot month is higher, the next month, you literally make money free rolling over with a week of expiration.

No! You do not! The price interdependency between two contracts are complex, governed by many factors. They have different delivery dates, and can have widely different prices. It depends on storage costs, financing costs, expected demand during delivery date of a contract, expected weather pattern during and before delivery date, expectancy of wars breaking out, etc. etc. etc. No free money here. Please do not load up thinking there is free money.

 

[BlueStreek]

any news? getting bids here in multiple asset classes........was the selloff just a trade......?

gotta love markets....quite the puzzle to figure out.

 

[BlueStreek]

just a shorts blow out, must be nice to make markets

 

[cstfx]

watch out for the EURO - if it breaks 1.23, it's going to drag cl with it fast

 

[BlueStreek]

nice call on euro

haven`t caught any of the good moves , just scalping.....


hard to figure crude, euro weak...equities and copper stronger


my thesis is that we get a pushdown when europe markets get going signs should start around 1 am.

but we have so many pushs and pulls this week, didn`t realize gold sold off.

 

[cstfx]

Quote from BlueStreek:

nice call on euro

haven`t caught any of the good moves , just scalping.....


hard to figure crude, euro weak...equities and copper stronger


my thesis is that we get a pushdown when europe markets get going signs should start around 1 am.

but we have so many pushs and pulls this week, didn`t realize gold sold off.

looks like the praise was a little early.

Going to bed - got a stop on crude @ 7900 and EUR @ 12380 with targets at 2:1, so we will see when I get up in a couple of hours.

cheers