CL Redux
- Thread starter schizo
- Start date
my story here, after the report, saw the number I like. jumped in at 73.33, out at 73.97 with decent gain. then thought 73.5 is a good pullback buy, get trashed. then saw a cross in my chart, bought it again at 73.3, gee, when I was in, it suddenly dropped, trashed again. then shorted it at 72.9, thought it will go down, but no, it went up, man, I was killed again, then flipped again, just stopped out at 73.1. then shorted it at 72.8, only this time the market respected me, because of lots of former whipsawings and lost confidence, covered it at 72.6, while not wait for my target 72.35.then did another stupid trade, when it went up and crossed my EMA, I shorted it at 72.85(actually I am very angry, totally a revenge, I should respect the market), it should be long signal, get killed again. then I saw it did not move down, I immediately bought it at 73.26, quickly gained 30ticks and out, then jumped in at 73.93, out at 74.86.
becuase of lots of small losers today, almost gained nothing. but anyway, gained a little. thought after the report, it will shoot to 75.8, my long bias in my mind greatly hammered my trading.
becuase of lots of small losers today, almost gained nothing. but anyway, gained a little. thought after the report, it will shoot to 75.8, my long bias in my mind greatly hammered my trading.
Those were some sick moves today! After the numbers, it took off and so I waited for a pullback entry, but no, it just crashed and broke down the 20 MA and at that point I no longer had a comfortable setup. Once it retraced the entire move in about 20 mins I decided I now had a short bias. It moved to the 20 and ranged for what seemed like forever. Finally sellers came in and I was just about to short @ 73.10 (breakdown of the range low) and it fell from under my order, no fill, then it wiggled a bit and I was unsure once more what to think of that, then timberrr! I started to wonder if I'm simply getting too old to trade CL.
It settles in, I see a short signal, ignore it because I believe it will test the 73.40 zone (previous range high). It tries twice and fails and then I'm short and happy. I target 72.80, move the target down as price comes running toward me, prepare to lock my stop @ .80 the moment it breaks down (I'm certain at this point it will break down further and overshoot the lower Keltner), and.....it finds rapid support ONE TICK above my initial target. I watch my $320 unrealized gain turn into a $25 realized gain and never even think to go long at that point.
An internal double top off 73.59 and I miss that when it occurs, but as it falls toward the 20 MA I figure I'll try something new and I short prior to a confirmed breakdown based on a pattern I see often on the USO chart I have up. Lesson: try new things in a sim account, not a live account. It finds support at the 20 and instead of just bailing, I give it room and I'm stopped out just at the break through .59 and thank god I don't place stops a tick outside my levels or I would've had twice the loss on slippage alone because that breakout jumped about .25 in a flash.
I decide I'm definitely too old to trade this thing, at least on inventory day
looks we are looking at the same stuff, we get the same feeling.
I traded wensday's session (first dip to 72.4ish, then relentlessly went up until closing even beyond, that made me think it will shoot higher), so I jumped in at 73.26 after it bounced off 72.32 (my revenge short failed, told me i need flip, schizo's flipping without any blinking). jumped in 73.93 is a little bit too brave with 20cents stop, I was desperate, though I was green at that moment I want to make something at that moment, but glad it reached my target.
20EMA (kind of 100 minutes?)is too long-term. I used 1'minute bar chart . crude is too fast in price move.
inventory data easily will create some pre-bias in mind, it is wise to avoid it.
I traded wensday's session (first dip to 72.4ish, then relentlessly went up until closing even beyond, that made me think it will shoot higher), so I jumped in at 73.26 after it bounced off 72.32 (my revenge short failed, told me i need flip, schizo's flipping without any blinking). jumped in 73.93 is a little bit too brave with 20cents stop, I was desperate, though I was green at that moment I want to make something at that moment, but glad it reached my target.
20EMA (kind of 100 minutes?)is too long-term. I used 1'minute bar chart . crude is too fast in price move.
inventory data easily will create some pre-bias in mind, it is wise to avoid it.
Quote from NoDoji:
Those were some sick moves today! After the numbers, it took off and so I waited for a pullback entry, but no, it just crashed and broke down the 20 MA and at that point I no longer had a comfortable setup. Once it retraced the entire move in about 20 mins I decided I now had a short bias. It moved to the 20 and ranged for what seemed like forever. Finally sellers came in and I was just about to short @ 73.10 (breakdown of the range low) and it fell from under my order, no fill, then it wiggled a bit and I was unsure once more what to think of that, then timberrr! I started to wonder if I'm simply getting too old to trade CL.
It settles in, I see a short signal, ignore it because I believe it will test the 73.40 zone (previous range high). It tries twice and fails and then I'm short and happy. I target 72.80, move the target down as price comes running toward me, prepare to lock my stop @ .80 the moment it breaks down (I'm certain at this point it will break down further and overshoot the lower Keltner), and.....it finds rapid support ONE TICK above my initial target. I watch my $320 unrealized gain turn into a $25 realized gain and never even think to go long at that point.
An internal double top off 73.59 and I miss that when it occurs, but as it falls toward the 20 MA I figure I'll try something new and I short prior to a confirmed breakdown based on a pattern I see often on the USO chart I have up. Lesson: try new things in a sim account, not a live account. It finds support at the 20 and instead of just bailing, I give it room and I'm stopped out just at the break through .59 and thank god I don't place stops a tick outside my levels or I would've had twice the loss on slippage alone because that breakout jumped about .25 in a flash.
I decide I'm definitely too old to trade this thing, at least on inventory day
sh 71.80
stop 72.10
edit: closing out early at 71.85, doesn't look like it'll break 71.50 today
stop 72.10
edit: closing out early at 71.85, doesn't look like it'll break 71.50 today
Only had the one trade today based on the signals I use. Was stopped out before noon and did not want to enter any other trades going into the weekend. Thought it had a chance but the dollar strength and bad employment figures were too much to overcome. Overall I am happy with the changes I am using but still need to experiment with it a little more before trying it on a grander scale.
Enjoy the weekend fellow ET'ers.