CL Redux

Quote from heech:

I'd love to see that thread, if you could point it out again... thank ya.
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Heech, I don't remember the name of it. It was linked to from something else here I was reading, so I just clicked the link and paid no attention to the title of the thread. However, one guy was down $2 million and ended the day "only" down a million I think.

The whole "surprise news announcement/40 pt gap" stuck in my mind. It scared the hell of out me. Last week and the week before I felt like an ATM machine and was trading size and started testing what it feels like to trade 10-15 lots in my sim account, which means I was having very dangerous thoughts, and the confluence of reading that thread and getting ammo's message at almost the same time just stopped me cold.

It's so easy it is to become complacent and expect the market to always do X, if Y occurs. Thing is, anything can happen. A major news event hits and we retail traders are left in the dust. I mean, what good is a stop if the market suddenly gaps 40 pts and keeps going? If I'm long 10 or 15 CL and something crazy tosses price down 5 points or more, game over for me. If I'm long 1 or 2 CL and that happens, it's a damn rough day, but I'm still very much alive.
 
Quote from trader198:

that is because you forgot your plan. always remind your self: the plan. even you get used to your plan, still need this reminder.

always have a stop loss? do you? maybe just sometimes
always have a reasonable size bet to avoid unimaginable risk (halting/policy change)? maybe just sometimes
always .... maybe just sometimes
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Yes
Yes
Yes

Over confidence led me to use a different exit strategy other than what my plan called for. My expectancy is usually 2.0 more or less. I was going for 5 and 10 x my risk on exits and not trailing a stop loss once my initial targets were hit.

Thanks.
 
Quote from trader198:

that is because you forgot your plan. always remind your self: the plan. even you get used to your plan, still need this reminder.

always have a stop loss? do you? maybe just sometimes
always have a reasonable size bet to avoid unimaginable risk (halting/policy change)? maybe just sometimes
always .... maybe just sometimes
More...

As I always say, tomorrow's another day. Overindulging in the past is never a good habit either. Shall we move on?
 
I wish Ninja had a feature where you can enter a trade but it gets automatically pulled after a bit like some other brokers have built into their platforms (maybe NT does and I just don't know about it) because I'd really like to place a trade now and lie down for a bit, and if not hit soon, it would cancel. So I will take a chance...

looks like it has found a little short term support here around 7150 so plan to go long if it retraces back to the low 7145 with a 50c stop and a 100c tp looks like it might be a good risk play - QMN0

also, EURUSD looks like it may have found a little support too around 1.2150 which should help buoy crude if it holds
 
Quote from cstfx:

I wish Ninja had a feature where you can enter a trade but it gets automatically pulled after a bit like some other brokers have built into their platforms (maybe NT does and I just don't know about it) because I'd really like to place a trade now and lie down for a bit, and if not hit soon, it would cancel. So I will take a chance...

looks like it has found a little short term support here around 7150 so plan to go long if it retraces back to the low 7145 with a 50c stop and a 100c tp looks like it might be a good risk play - QMN0

also, EURUSD looks like it may have found a little support too around 1.2150 which should help buoy crude if it holds
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Wow. Woke up and thought for sure I was going to have my a** handed to me on this trade but seems crude has found support at 7140-7150 area. so from above-

long 7145 st 50c target 7245
 
if you want to hand it to the shorts, just shut up with these public statements, and behind the scenes, get a concerted effort to come in and buy the euro, just enough to burn the shorts, so the overcrowded trade has some sense of a normal two-sided market with fear on both sides of a trade.

a slow orderly unwind of the euro is much preferred under any scenario versus a currency, market destabilizing route like we are having now.
 
Quote from cstfx:

Wow. Woke up and thought for sure I was going to have my a** handed to me on this trade but seems crude has found support at 7140-7150 area. so from above-

long 7145 st 50c target 7245
More...

out 71.725 - forgot today is inventory day
 
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