CL Redux

[HuggieBear]

Good cautionary opinion...thanks. I was just thinking how crude is going to stay under pressure as long as the euro is collapsing and the dollar is going up.

Do have to remember that anything can happen...

 

[schizo]

Back down to 71. I hope you guys have your shields up just in case.

Now take a look at this chart. There just might be a reversal, but personally I'm not convinced at this moment in time. I still stand by my 60 prediction. But then again, I could easily be proved wrong. As Huggie said, anything goes.

 

[schizo]

OMG! We hit the damn low made on Friday and looks like we just might continue sliding into the bottomless pit. Wake me up when we hit 70.

 

[BlueStreek]

Its going to be real interesting as front month expires this thursday, last expiration the front month was getting hit (nothing like down 16 bucks in such a short time period) and then on settlement day it was bought up.

The real question is does this thing take a dump on settlement week, or a dump, and then bought up on settlement day, or have a nice 6 dollar buying spree starting mid-monday through to settlement.

But it could get real nasty, like 66 a barrel if people panic, and maybe dump some of their stored contango oil on the market at the last minute!


I would love for oil to take a dump to 66 this week on panic selling, and I would come in and buy this as opec would start talking about the 75 number they need again, as they are all cheating like hell on their quotas right now

 

[schizo]

Quote from schizo
on 05-03-10 05:28 PM:

The daily looks menacingly bearish now. Just look at the long wick. That alone looks lethal, whew! What do ya folks think?

Hitting 70.09, 70.08, 70.07....

In any case, who would have thought that the entire rally of 2010 could be wiped out in just 10 friggin' days?!

 

[schizo]

Quote from BlueStreek:

Its going to be real interesting as front month expires this thursday, last expiration the front month was getting hit (nothing like down 16 bucks in such a short time period) and then on settlement day it was bought up.

The real question is does this thing take a dump on settlement week, or a dump, and then bought up on settlement day, or have a nice 6 dollar buying spree starting mid-monday through to settlement.

But it could get real nasty, like 66 a barrel if people panic, and maybe dump some of their stored contango oil on the market at the last minute!


I would love for oil to take a dump to 66 this week on panic selling, and I would come in and buy this as opec would start talking about the 75 number they need again, as they are all cheating like hell on their quotas right now

Again, I expect this market to puke big time. If my newbie calculation isn't off as usual, 65 is definitely in the card. Personally, I'm looking at 60. We shall see.

I hope Huggie and others bailed out by now.

 

[BlueStreek]

yeah it shows how mispriced things are by wallstreet, always have been and always will.....just look at crox, i remember shorting that at 58, and having to take a quick profit b/c it was going much higher, and it did......trend trading which dominates wallstreet inevitably leads to mispriced assets, and they can stay mispriced longer than you can stay solvent, and it also makes it hard to judge true value, when prices get so distorted from true fundamentals, its the difference between making markets, and trying to trade other people`s made market, you have to get the timing just right, and you usually are going to be too early in picking a top or bottom.

 

[oraclewizard77]

I think you could go long at 66 and add at 65 for a longer term position. Anything above $ 65 is good enough to make profit for the drillers, so I think buying them on dips is a good strategy.

Quote from schizo:

Again, I expect this market to puke big time. If my newbie calculation isn't off as usual, 65 is definitely in the card. Personally, I'm looking at 60. We shall see.

I hope Huggie and others bailed out by now.

 

[schizo]

Quote from schizo:

OMG! We hit the damn low made on Friday and looks like we just might continue sliding into the bottomless pit. Wake me up when we hit 70.

Alright homeys, you got your 70.

Now what?

Quote from BlueStreek:

yeah it shows how mispriced things are by wallstreet, always have been and always will.....just look at crox, i remember shorting that at 58, and having to take a quick profit b/c it was going much higher, and it did......trend trading which dominates wallstreet inevitably leads to mispriced assets, and they can stay mispriced longer than you can stay solvent, and it also makes it hard to judge true value, when prices get so distorted from true fundamentals, its the difference between making markets, and trying to trade other people`s made market, you have to get the timing just right, and you usually are going to be too early in picking a top or bottom.

Just remember that the chart doesn't lie. Forget everything else, period.

 

[BlueStreek]

well going by the charts we have broken a year-long trendline, and if i was just going by the charts i would say that there is some support at 69.09, then next support at 65.56, with some stronger support at 62.50.

But there is no way we should hit even 65 in the middle of the summer driving season runnup, this is bizarre.