I used limit order most time (I said to myself, I must be tough to get the price I want), when I try to get out I use stop loss order (first tried my limit order, I do not want slippage eat my profit or widen my loss). all depends on market situation, if I saw the train is in fast mode, market order to jump in; if in slow mode, use limit order to do some scalpings.
CL Redux
- Thread starter schizo
- Start date
it is under EMA, that means it is trending down.
anyway, I find oversold excuse to go long over the weekend.
monday may be a inside day, gap up then retrace? euro zone problem is already factored in those days' relentless drop, so I take the nerve to hold a tiny position.
get to leave the market, happy weekend
anyway, I find oversold excuse to go long over the weekend.
monday may be a inside day, gap up then retrace? euro zone problem is already factored in those days' relentless drop, so I take the nerve to hold a tiny position.
get to leave the market, happy weekend
Thanks for the response, guys. I have not yet started trading CL live, and have only been following it while trading another market, but I think I will likely have to enter with marketable limit orders when the time comes. When I tested in sim mode, trying to buy at the bid or sell at the offer frequently resulted in my being left behind, coughing at the exhaust fumes.
I made money today, however, I think in future I need to try to trade with trend more often if I can determine the trend. I stopped trading today after 3 trades, 2 in es and 1 in cl. 1st es trade, I took a loss of just .50 after market went down but not enough to fill my 2nd contract order, and then after it went back above BE, it started to go down again, so I killed the trade.
2nd trade, in ES, took real money 1.25 points but could have and should have held it to my target of 2 points which it reached. Both were long trades, however, the market did make a HH, so I felt I was not hard core fighting the trend. Both real money trades, to prevent over trading or revenge trading, I am going to limit myself to no more than 3 trades per day for awhile win or lose. Last trade I went long a green candle in CL 14 min, but really, I should have waited for confirmation, and got in on the next candle.
I took only 10 ticks when market wanted to give me at least 30 ticks, and I knew I should have gone for that, but in future, I think I am going to need to trade 2 contracts so I can scale out and let a winner run and also be able to take a loss if I am wrong. My risk vs reward was not bad on CL for that 1 contract trade, but with 2 contracts, I think I can set a much better risk vs reward.
I then went long sim in on es at 1127, and got stopped out for 2 points. I need to remember that just because the market went up from the previous price, it will usually not create a double bottom, instead I need to look to the next level of what I think is support and give the trade enough room to breath, and it would have worked. Finally, I took a sim short on ES since trend for day was down, and that trade worked out fine with no heat like my long trades. I think if I do a 1 contract trade on the ES with a goal of averaging in 1 time if I decide before hand, then that is ok. However, if I do a 2 contract trade on ES or especially CL, I plan to not average down and instead just let the market stop me out.
2nd trade, in ES, took real money 1.25 points but could have and should have held it to my target of 2 points which it reached. Both were long trades, however, the market did make a HH, so I felt I was not hard core fighting the trend. Both real money trades, to prevent over trading or revenge trading, I am going to limit myself to no more than 3 trades per day for awhile win or lose. Last trade I went long a green candle in CL 14 min, but really, I should have waited for confirmation, and got in on the next candle.
I took only 10 ticks when market wanted to give me at least 30 ticks, and I knew I should have gone for that, but in future, I think I am going to need to trade 2 contracts so I can scale out and let a winner run and also be able to take a loss if I am wrong. My risk vs reward was not bad on CL for that 1 contract trade, but with 2 contracts, I think I can set a much better risk vs reward.
I then went long sim in on es at 1127, and got stopped out for 2 points. I need to remember that just because the market went up from the previous price, it will usually not create a double bottom, instead I need to look to the next level of what I think is support and give the trade enough room to breath, and it would have worked. Finally, I took a sim short on ES since trend for day was down, and that trade worked out fine with no heat like my long trades. I think if I do a 1 contract trade on the ES with a goal of averaging in 1 time if I decide before hand, then that is ok. However, if I do a 2 contract trade on ES or especially CL, I plan to not average down and instead just let the market stop me out.
Schiz, i would say your guess is ludicrous but you've been spot on to date.
All i can say is, if we see $60 oil in the middle of driving season, there will be some cheap equities to be had. Or cheap oil, even
Personally, im slowing accumulating a large crude position expecting a reversal shortly. I'm looking for a short term bounce, and on that bounce i will hedge myself in like a nasty embedded Tick. I'll then ride the position out until late July.
Or, crude will keep dropping $4 per day and i'll be bankrupt by end of next week.
And Schiz will get his $60.
Quote from HuggieBear:
Schiz, i would say your guess is ludicrous but you've been spot on to date.
All i can say is, if we see $60 oil in the middle of driving season, there will be some cheap equities to be had. Or cheap oil, even
With the economy still in a slump, the governments world over will not allow speculators free reign as they did two years ago, which only sent the crude price over $140. One would think the free market system is free of government intervention, but only a jackass would adhere to such a naive view after what went on over the past 15 months. It's my hunch, and I emphasize that it's just a hunch, that the crude price will likely remain in the $40 - $60 level for a number of years.
That would mean we are in a real global slump, with slow or minimal growth. I would suggest that would mean the DOW goes back to 8000.
It seems like the industrial and economic numbers are suggesting more rapid expansion...i don't doubt it could all disappear as stimulus dries up or Euro zone relapes or as china bursts, but it doesn't seem to be reflected yet in the economic numbers.
It seems like the industrial and economic numbers are suggesting more rapid expansion...i don't doubt it could all disappear as stimulus dries up or Euro zone relapes or as china bursts, but it doesn't seem to be reflected yet in the economic numbers.
I've been around a long time now, and I've seen many unbelievable things in the markets. Two lessons I learned in hindsight after painful lessons I hope you avoid:
#1 - Commodity markets sustain huge trend moves. When a long-term price range breaks, commodity markets will cover way more chart than anyone deems possible by logic & reason. It's a deadly game trying to figure out what a market will do based on logic & reason, the most worthless market timing tactic of all.
CL could be trading in the $50s by July 4th. It's over-inflated priced as a commodity due to USD proxy hedge. If the USD keeps rallying off euro woes, gasoline prices, driving season, etc means less than zero to CL price.
CL is half commodity, half currency. Right now the currency aspect is pushing price, and if things fall apart in europe we'll see CL plummet. -$10 bbl in a single day has happened before, and could happen again.
#2: The start of trends is always point of max denial. We recently saw a stock index peak, quick drop, return to lower highs and quick drop. That is break of consolidation, first pullback to test support = resistance, now into the second wave > drop.
SPX has unfilled gaps down around the 900 level... miles below us right now. That gap will fill in our lifetime, my bet is it does so before the end of 2010. 1110 and 1075 are probable magnets to revisit below. CL will be in the $60s at SPX 1075 again.
Averaging down into a falling commodity market works if you have a firm exit that's fiscally sound and stick to it. If betting your trading account life on such an act, it's russian roulette in the end.