CL Redux

[NoDoji]

Quote from RedSun:

1 penny is worth $100. A tick is 0.001 and it is $10.

There is not much to trade NG, no weather, no storm, no impact from economy. The EIA is all what matters to traders.

It can easily go to 50c up or down on a number day. Stop orders make the move even bigger. So stops won't protect the position.

Crazy stuff! As I recall someone on ET once warned me they lost $5K in a few seconds on NG.

I imagine a few traders retired on that move today.

 

[RedSun]

If anyone here has access to news, can you tell if the oil leak will close the ship channels Houston? If this is only LA, oil shipping should be ok.

We get plenty oil anyway.

 

[RedSun]

Quote from DarthSidious:

Actually from what I know, professionals who exclusively trade NG never trade it outright. Calendar Spreads are the name of the game. How would you like to make / lose so much so quickly?

Well, it depends. If I want to risk $100K and assign $3,300 risk/contract, I can put on 30 contracts outright. That is only 1% of a $10MM account.

Spreads are safe, but low risk-adjusted returns.

 

[schizo]

Quote from schizo:

I would be especially careful about plunging in long here. At the very least wait until we retest today's low or thereabout.

Oops, forgot that I'm supposed to shut up for this entire week. :eek:

So much for that crazy prediction. I was thinking at the time that we would have a modestly bearish day today and then possibly a upleg tomorrow. But this thing is just off the damn hook and, as a result, I've had one miserable day.

Isn't it funny that whenever you suspect there might be a genuine selloff, you're immediately rewarded with a seller's remorse?

 

[enochbenjamin]

Quote from schizo:

I've had one miserable day.

you are not alone in the twilight zone!

 

[trader198]

I made 20k+ on NG today, I gambled on the report.

Quote from NoDoji:

Crazy stuff! As I recall someone on ET once warned me they lost $5K in a few seconds on NG.

I imagine a few traders retired on that move today.

 

[F112358]

I observe with dismay that no one has reported making big money today on a day that opened at the low and closed at the high in the daily chart.

Then I put a 5' chart and figured why. This thing in the short term is very very wiggly.

CL is still work in progress for me.

 

[NoDoji]

Quote from trader198:

I made 20k+ on NG today, I gambled on the report.

I'm assuming this is your demo account, because a couple weeks ago your account was $6500, then Monday you lost nearly $4000 of that in CL. So I'm assuming you wouldn't risk an account blowup and a nasty margin call on a news gamble.

If you actually turned $2,500 real money into $22,500 real money on NG today, then congratulations on winning the Roulette wheel 50/50 trading strategy!

 

[RedSun]

From what I see, the Greek thing was overdone. Now in a day, we recovered all the loss.

CL follow equity. Now we get the leak/spill push. The after-market move is all that push.

But the leak/spill should not have big impact to oil supply. Cushing is just a few MM close to capacity. The coast guard can contain the oil spill to prevent it from coming to ship channels. Hope the oil leak can calm down soon.

If traders do see material impacts from oil leak, the M/N spead should turn to backward. But it is at $-2 now.

 

[RedSun]

Quote from NoDoji:

I'm assuming this is your demo account, because a couple weeks ago your account was $6500, then Monday you lost nearly $4000 of that in CL. So I'm assuming you wouldn't risk an account blowup and a nasty margin call on a news gamble.

If you actually turned $2,500 real money into $22,500 real money on NG today, then congratulations on winning the Roulette wheel 50/50 trading strategy!

We should remember that, if gain is $20k, the risk is at least that same amount!