CL Redux

Quote from cstfx:

I have seen you mention the 20 ema before: do you use it as a trigger as well? If so, how many bars do you wait before you feel it confirms a direction either way, whether it breaks the line or bounces off it?

I use the 20-bar EMA on the daily chart for larger S/R levels. For example today the ES should sell off if it failed to break through 1190. Indeed there was a nice reversal off 1189.75.

I use the 20 EMA on the 5-min charts for entries with a trend (enter when support or resistance is established at a rising or falling 20). In a strong trend price rarely pulls back to the 20, so I then cross-reference a 3-min chart and use the 20 on that chart for entries. For example, say you sat at your platform around 7:30 ET this morning and wanted to join the uptrend in CL at a good price. Normally you'd wait for price to pull back to the rising 20-bar EMA and buy there. But you can see that the pullbacks are very shallow, so if you cross-reference the 3-min chart, you get a long entry signal right around 7:54am when support is established at the 20 EMA in that time frame. In very strong trends you can jump right in anywhere, like I did yesterday with ES as it was selling off. Screw the EMA's, I'm jumping off the cliff with all the other lemmings, and asking questions later :D

When a trend has been on for a while and looks overextended you can counter-trend trade (I do that sometimes), wait for the lower high/higher low or DT/DB (I do that more often), or if you're very conservative wait for the first bar that closes above/below the 20 EMA counter to the previous trend. So this morning on a 5-min chart of CL, the 9:40am bar closed below the 20. When the following bar fails to break through that previous bar's high, you have a fully confirmed short signal (lower highs and break of trend).

It's more like training wheels for me than anything else, mainly because so many traders follow it, it becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy.
 
Quote from lexcorp:

You picked pretty much the exact top and bottom so far today.
Made about 60 pips profit? Coulda made more, but we dont all have crystal balls and know before hand how big the move will be (except Sal, of course! :))

chin up
LOL. Not quite so. But, speaking of which, can I brag just a bit?

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Quote from schizo:

LOL. Not quite so. But, speaking of which, can I brag just a bit?

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4 QM? Why not just do 2 CL and get the pennies rather than surrendering 2.5 cents per tick?
 
Schiz, I'm gonna PM you my cell phone #. Next time you're planning to pick an exact bottom in the middle of the night, please call.
 
Quote from JamesL:

4 QM? Why not just do 2 CL and get the pennies rather than surrendering 2.5 cents per tick?
Because the daily chart for CL is a real mess. Also I didn't get a fill last week for CL. There was like a 5-tick disparity between CL and QM.

BTW I was actually asleep this morning. :)
 
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