CL Redux
- Thread starter schizo
- Start date
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I am sorry to hear you took those losses.
Just goes to show though - I called a weak market with an ultimate target of 84 and yet people still keep buying. There was only one counter trend buy which I called here.
I have been over on the ES journal also. People keep trying to short. Anyone is welcome to find a real time call I have posted where the market did not do what I expected. I do not think there is one yet. Unfortunately people will keep trading their opinion rather than what the market is telling them. Ego needs to be set aside in order for progress to be made.
At the time you had started buying the market had shown unresolved weakness. Why hold longs and wait for this background weakness to be resolved? You take shorts until you see evidence that serious accumulation is underway and the longs have been flushed out of the market.
You have bought a weak market with plenty of long stops below, which people keep trying to buy. It will go no other way than down. You then gave yourself an opinion, got stubborn, and demanded that the market rally a dollar to get you back onside. Averaging down is never a good idea unless you have to due to the size you are trading. Few people here are near this level market knowledge wise, let alone in terms of their account.
It isn't my business, and I rarely offer solicited advice, but you ought not to be trading. That is a lot to lose. You have demonstrated beyond doubt that you cannot read weakness in a market. Until you can, you will continue to buy weak markets and lose. There are some days when you will get away with it, but in the long term it is not an edge.
You refer to a pattern. Patterns mean nothing in themselves unless you understand what creates the pattern and use the correct context. Relying on a pattern and not admitting that the trade is not working out will get you killed.
I'll give it to you straight, even though it may be unpleasant. The market will also give it to you straight, but in an expensive way. This advice is free.
I am pleased you admit your ego is doing the trading today. Perhaps posting on a board isn't the best idea. However you really do need to learn how to trade before you put your capital on the line.
Gee, what an exciting globex opening for cl
I don't tend to trade that timeframe. Like I said in previous posts, I occaisionally get a decent move, but it needs to happen pretty quickly. There was a .90 on Friday, but most of my trades are just .20 to .30.
I'd rather whack a bit of size on a fairly certain .20 than trade smaller size for a more speculative .60, and have to wait through pullbacks etc as well. I trade a lot of markets and it isn't the best use of my resources. I actually spend the majority of my time flat between setups.
The problems with calling trades here also is that everyone trades on different timeframes. If I had said yesterday I expected the CL to make highs around 85.50 and sell down, with a target of at least 84 by the end of the session, I'd have been lampooned for not posting an entry and a stop.
If you read through my posts in order you will see I was calling a weak market with that as an ultimate downside target, but shorts with all the levels, bounces, and sideways in between, including a cheeky counter trend bounce trade good for a few cents. Again, that could have been held to .75.
Note I'm not making vague "could go up or down" comments, etc. Levels and direction given in advance. I've done this on the ES thread also. None wrong yet. This should prove beyond doubt that I can read the market in those timeframes.
You can see from my posts that I trade in quite fast places also, so prefer to be in and out if I'm posting stuff on a message board. Today was likely a one off feature for that reason - anything else I post will be general flavour of the day, which may help some people. I'm still surprised by people wanting to go long today....
When I position trade later in my career it will make sense to have a few dozen contracts running in what I believe to be the direction of the bigger trend. I'd be short above 85 and looking to scale some of my position off at 82 in that case.
when put in hindsight, everything is crystal ball clear.
actually I did not need lose, since my first entry is red, that already told me I need reversed my position. even the next adding late made it break even, I should get out all of them and reverse there, then I will enjoy the trending down. but who knows it is a trending down day? like former several days, morning droped hard, then climbed back and more late. of course, I made mistakes (did not cut loss accordingly, did not execute my plan, I am fighting/arguing with the market to show I am right, asking the market to do the same thing like before,what an idiot I am). I thought I was influenced by Scizo's "take what the market gives you". in reality, everyone just takes he/she wants, so I think I need be tough. first, we do not know what the market will give us, loss? gain? and how much? next, in what way the market will give us those? whatever, I learned something new.
actually I did not need lose, since my first entry is red, that already told me I need reversed my position. even the next adding late made it break even, I should get out all of them and reverse there, then I will enjoy the trending down. but who knows it is a trending down day? like former several days, morning droped hard, then climbed back and more late. of course, I made mistakes (did not cut loss accordingly, did not execute my plan, I am fighting/arguing with the market to show I am right, asking the market to do the same thing like before,what an idiot I am). I thought I was influenced by Scizo's "take what the market gives you". in reality, everyone just takes he/she wants, so I think I need be tough. first, we do not know what the market will give us, loss? gain? and how much? next, in what way the market will give us those? whatever, I learned something new.