CL Redux

Sorry about the wrong information that I put out about the API yesterday. The article I clicked on pointed me to last weeks data and I did not notice that it was the wrong day. The following is a news article about the mastercard spending pulse report from Tuesday.

(Reuters) - U.S. retail gasoline demand rose 1.8 percent in the week to April 16, according to a MasterCard SpendingPulse report released on Tuesday.

Gasoline demand averaged 9.465 million barrels per day last week, the weekly survey showed.

Demand increased from the previous week for across all regions, with the Midwest, where demand was up 4.4 percent, the largest week-to-week increase amid fairly sunny and mild weather across the region, according to the report.

Year-on-year, gasoline demand rose 1.1 percent, SpendingPulse showed.

"(Gasoline demand is) up about 1 percent over a pretty weak year-ago period, we think that the increase is relatively consistent, primarily due to a better macro-economic environment," said Michael McNamara, VP Research and Analysis for MasterCard Advisors SpendingPulse.

Consumption of the motor fuel in the world's top oil consumer over the last four weeks averaged 1.0 percent higher year-over-year.

The national average retail prices for gasoline rose 1 cent over the week to $2.85 per gallon, but was up 39.7 percent from year-ago levels.

According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, U.S. gasoline prices are expected to average $2.92 per gallon this summer, but will likely exceed $3 per gallon at times during the 2010 driving season.

But McNamara said at the current rate, prices may be on track to surpass those estimates.

"We're already around $2.85 (per gallon) and we're not even in May," he said.

MasterCard Advisors estimates retail gasoline demand based on aggregate sales activity in the MasterCard payments system coupled with estimates for all other payment forms including cash and checks. MasterCard Advisors is a unit of MasterCard Inc <MA.N>.
 
Quote from schizo:

It's purely psychological. As you know, most consumers swipe their plastic at the pump. So I suppose it provides a window into consumers' appetite for oil or the lack thereof.

Anyway, has anyone seen one of these MC reports? Is there a specific mention about how much is being spent at the pump?
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Okay, thanks. Seems a bit tangential to me. In any event, I'm not interested in interpreting reports, since there are finer minds at work doing just that sort of thing. My pedestrian objective is limited to being flat in front of scheduled announcements. With that in mind, do you know when this report is released? If it is during RTH, I'd like to see what effect, if any, it has on immediate price action.
 
Speaking purely as a daytrader, can I just say that it really doesn't matter one way or the other. First, api comes out after the market and it doesn't move the market a whole lot. Take a look at the AH for yesterday and you will notice that it traded more in tandem with ES than anything else. EIA, on the other hand, comes out during the market, which I think only an asswipe would understand. Regardless, it still merits no attention from a daytrader.

Just stay out of the market when the numbers get released. There will be a great havoc for the next 10 minutes but, oftentimes, you will be given a great opportunity to fade the move. That's what happened today and you will notice this time and again.

The important thing is to trade what you see and not what you hear. If the market wants to go up, don't fight it; go long. If down, go short. For me, this makes a lot of sense and it's definitely simpler to trade than trying to analyze and digest all the nonsense written in the API and EIA reports.
 
Quote from schizo:

Will do. But before I do, can you provide me with all other fundamentally pertinent info that crude traders should consider? compile all the important events that occur throughout the week with the dates, time, and their respective website, etc. You can either send me a PM or post it here.

In order to modify the first post, I would need to ask the forum nanny (which is always a pain in the ass) so I want to do it right the first time. Thanks for the consideration.
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Cool, Ill put a list together with the monthly report too. EIA for example puts out some monthly and quaterly reports that people watch. If anyone knows the University Of Colorado huricane forcast schedule that would be great help for the list.
 
Thanks to everyone for your responses. I note that nothing much happened yesterday at 2PM, so I suspect I won't have to worry much about MC. I did note a spike yesterday at 4:30PM, which I guess is the API thing and nothing quite like the EIA thing. However, since API is outside of RTH it is unlikely to do me any harm.

Thanks for the cautionary words, schizo, but I think I will be able to adapt my NQ method to CL, with very little modification. I have been eyeing CL for the last couple of days while trading NQ, and will do at least a few days of sim on CL before going live on a very small scale. By the look of things, I will not likely participate in many of the good moves, but it looks like I will be able to contain the risk on those that I do. That should suffice. And, as you may well imagine, if I stay clear of NQ in front of scheduled economic reports, you can be doubly sure I will do the same for Crazy Lucille (CL).

Even so, I won't be posting calls, since I never do. That messes with my head, so I will leave that to you gladiators. :D
 
really it is. trade what we see, not what we think. often I was hurt by the "thinking", while neglect the market's true direction or move.

Quote from schizo:

Speaking purely as a daytrader, can I just say that it really doesn't matter one way or the other. First, api comes out after the market and it doesn't move the market a whole lot. Take a look at the AH for yesterday and you will notice that it traded more in tandem with ES than anything else. EIA, on the other hand, comes out during the market, which I think only an asswipe would understand. Regardless, it still merits no attention from a daytrader.

Just stay out of the market when the numbers get released. There will be a great havoc for the next 10 minutes but, oftentimes, you will be given a great opportunity to fade the move. That's what happened today and you will notice this time and again.

The important thing is to trade what you see and not what you hear. If the market wants to go up, don't fight it; go long. If down, go short. For me, this makes a lot of sense and it's definitely simpler to trade than trying to analyze and digest all the nonsense written in the API and EIA reports.
More...
 
Quote from trader198:

really it is. trade what we see, not what we think. often I was hurt by the "thinking", while neglect the market's true direction or move.
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seeing something, thinking something, and actually trading something are three different things.
 
Quote from Gabfly1:

Even so, I won't be posting calls, since I never do. That messes with my head, so I will leave that to you gladiators. :D
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Sometimes the trade's just too fast to post, like my two 30-sec trades today. And if I'm trading more than one thing, like stocks or ES, I'm usually too distracted to post in real time.

That being said, I think in the long run it's helpful to me because once I put my trade on the table, I hear the voices of Schiz, F11 and EON telling me to allow my targets to play out and not trail a damn 10-tick stop too quickly. :D
 
of course, they are different.
even you trade what you see, you may not get profits since the market may suddenly change direction while you are not fast enough to follow, or sometimes just simply can not follow the market, too much quick whipsaws. so better stay in those markets which our trading strategy can follow. otherwise, better take the profit and run or stay sideline until clear neat things are there.

even you are bullish and the market do does go up, but if your timing is wrong, you still do not ride the train.

even you are trading the right vechicle, if your size/tming/ideas are not right, you still can not ride the market.

so basically to me, I stay focus on what I am good at, do not try to generalize some knowledge from past unhappy experience or modify my trading system.


Quote from OTCkrak:

seeing something, thinking something, and actually trading something are three different things.
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