CL Redux
- Thread starter schizo
- Start date
Anyone have api #'s yet?
Crude oil stockpiles rose 1.4 million barrel versus analyst expectations for a rise of 1.5 million barrels. Crude inventories rose despite a decline of 730,000 barrels per day in imports to 9.21 million bpd. There was a build of 1.6 million barrels in gasoline inventories, versus analyst expectations for a 600,000-barrel draw. Stockpiles of distillates increased by 1.7 million barrels, above analysts' forecasts for a 900,000-barrel build.
i think crude may be in bigger trouble than is apparent. i've seen some suggestions that there may truly be a supply glut forthcoming, with several opec nations raising output considerably to take advantage of prices.
we will see....the chart actually does look a bit bearish, although that has not panned out recently.
we will see....the chart actually does look a bit bearish, although that has not panned out recently.
Im not sure how you guys see it as being bearish. Yesterdays high got taken out 2day. Selling came in the last 3minutes of pit to keep it from closing above 8400 which would have been bullish. Im expecting 8500 at least this week, from there it could trade back down. Last night and tonight so far it has not turned -..
Not sure where you got your info from but here are the numbers cross referenced against 2 sources:
API reported a draw of 741,000 barrels of crude oil this afternoon. Estimates for
tomorrowâs inventory report are for a draw of 750,000 barrels of crude oil and for refinery
utilization to be up 0.35%.
API reported a draw of 3.1 million barrels of distillate this afternoon. Estimates for
tomorrow are for a build of 1.0 million barrels.
API reported a draw of 1.7 million barrels of gasoline this afternoon. Estimates for
tomorrow are for a build of 500,000 barrels.
With regard to the report today, i saw similar numbers as you have reported but also with imports being way down. I won't vouch for that as I saw the info second hand. API data seems reasonably unreliable anyway.
That aside, i wasn't referencing today's data so much as some info i saw elsewhere that suggested some opec countries have begun exceeding quotas substantially. And that being the case not because of demand but because of the allure of the current prices crude is yielding.
Basically, i'm connecting several dots to inform a possible intermediate movement, which are;
- recent price action in crude, which has been showing some weakness EVEN THOUGH i recognize the uptrend is intact. The weakness in crude preceded the recent S&P weakness (which itself started before the GS issue)
- the demand picture still has not improved dramatically...we are still running way above historical levels (in terms of supply). Also, i imagine the volcano can not be helpful in the very near future.
- and then there is the potential additional supply created by quota exceeders.
Anyway, with all the above said, i wouldn't take any stupid chances shorting oil in any major or long term way. But, it does feel a bit like the sentiment might have changed and, at minimum, there may be some decent coin to make playing range bound moves. Seems unlikely crude will break above recent highs without some improvement to the demand picture.
Then again, maybe not. Obviously it hasn't been important up to this point.
Buy the dips is probably still the best strategy. But damn, isn't that getting a bit obvious? Obvious doesn't make money that often...
That aside, i wasn't referencing today's data so much as some info i saw elsewhere that suggested some opec countries have begun exceeding quotas substantially. And that being the case not because of demand but because of the allure of the current prices crude is yielding.
Basically, i'm connecting several dots to inform a possible intermediate movement, which are;
- recent price action in crude, which has been showing some weakness EVEN THOUGH i recognize the uptrend is intact. The weakness in crude preceded the recent S&P weakness (which itself started before the GS issue)
- the demand picture still has not improved dramatically...we are still running way above historical levels (in terms of supply). Also, i imagine the volcano can not be helpful in the very near future.
- and then there is the potential additional supply created by quota exceeders.
Anyway, with all the above said, i wouldn't take any stupid chances shorting oil in any major or long term way. But, it does feel a bit like the sentiment might have changed and, at minimum, there may be some decent coin to make playing range bound moves. Seems unlikely crude will break above recent highs without some improvement to the demand picture.
Then again, maybe not. Obviously it hasn't been important up to this point.
Buy the dips is probably still the best strategy. But damn, isn't that getting a bit obvious? Obvious doesn't make money that often...
Also, i've got a small short order in for 85...on the chance this runs up overnight.