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Oil Falls for a Fifth Day on Forecast Gains in U.S. Supplies
By Alexander Kwiatkowski and Grant Smith
April 13 (Bloomberg) -- Oil declined for a fifth day amid forecasts of an 11th consecutive weekly gain in U.S. crude stockpiles, signaling that oversupply may persist in the worldâs largest energy user.
U.S. crude oil supplies probably rose 1.15 million barrels as imports climbed, according to a Bloomberg News survey. It would be the longest stretch of increases in five years. The Energy Department is due to release its weekly report at 10:30 a.m. tomorrow in Washington. Oil also fell as the International Energy Agency boosted its forecast for non-OPEC supplies.
âThe current price is way ahead of fundamentals,â said Eugen Weinberg, senior analyst with Commerzbank AG in Frankfurt. âIt reflects positive future developments too much. As investors become aware of economic risks, they might trim their bets.â
Crude oil for May delivery dropped as much as 91 cents, or 1.1 percent, to $83.43 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. It was at $83.62 at 12:40 p.m. London time. Brent crude dropped 22 cents to $84.55 on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange.
Non-OPEC producers, accounting for about 60 percent of the worldâs supplies, will raise output by 600,000 barrels a day this year to average 52 million barrels a day, the IEA said in its monthly market report today. Thatâs 220,000 barrels a day more than estimated last month. The agency left its forecast for global oil demand in 2010 little changed, 30,000 barrels a day higher than in last monthâs report.
Fuel Inventories
Oil inventories are at their âhighest in history,â and there is no shortage of supply, Qatari Energy Minister Abdullah Bin Hamad al-Attiyah said yesterday at a press conference in Doha. Qatar is the second-smallest producer in the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, which pumps about 40 percent of the worldâs oil.
Itâs âprematureâ to declare that the current slump is over, the National Bureau of Economic Researchâs Business Cycle Dating Committee said in a statement on its Web site yesterday. The body is responsible for determining when U.S. recessions begin and end.
U.S. gasoline inventories probably dropped 1 million barrels from 222.4 million the prior week, according to the survey. Stockpiles of distillate fuel, a category that includes heating oil and diesel, rose 1 million barrels from 145.7 million the prior week, said the survey.
The industry-funded American Petroleum Institute will issue its own weekly report at 4:30 p.m. in Washington D.C. today.
Brent Overtakes Nymex
âBulls are correct in their assumption that demand is recovering on a global level,â said Stephen Schork, president of the Schork Group Inc., in a daily report. âOn the other hand, the bears are vindicated with crude oil supplies 11 percent above the 2004-2008 average.â
Schork is maintaining a neutral outlook for prices until levels âsettle significantly distant from $85.â
The Brent price overtook the Nymex price for the first time since Dec. 21, based on the May contracts. The ICE future is trading at 94 cents a barrel premium to New York.
Brent May futures expire on April 15. The more active June contract was at $85.48 a barrel, down 23 cents, at 12:39 p.m. local time.
To contact the reporter on this story: Alexander Kwiatkowski in London at akwiatkowsk2@bloomberg.net
Last Updated: April 13, 2010 07:58 EDT
By Alexander Kwiatkowski and Grant Smith
April 13 (Bloomberg) -- Oil declined for a fifth day amid forecasts of an 11th consecutive weekly gain in U.S. crude stockpiles, signaling that oversupply may persist in the worldâs largest energy user.
U.S. crude oil supplies probably rose 1.15 million barrels as imports climbed, according to a Bloomberg News survey. It would be the longest stretch of increases in five years. The Energy Department is due to release its weekly report at 10:30 a.m. tomorrow in Washington. Oil also fell as the International Energy Agency boosted its forecast for non-OPEC supplies.
âThe current price is way ahead of fundamentals,â said Eugen Weinberg, senior analyst with Commerzbank AG in Frankfurt. âIt reflects positive future developments too much. As investors become aware of economic risks, they might trim their bets.â
Crude oil for May delivery dropped as much as 91 cents, or 1.1 percent, to $83.43 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. It was at $83.62 at 12:40 p.m. London time. Brent crude dropped 22 cents to $84.55 on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange.
Non-OPEC producers, accounting for about 60 percent of the worldâs supplies, will raise output by 600,000 barrels a day this year to average 52 million barrels a day, the IEA said in its monthly market report today. Thatâs 220,000 barrels a day more than estimated last month. The agency left its forecast for global oil demand in 2010 little changed, 30,000 barrels a day higher than in last monthâs report.
Fuel Inventories
Oil inventories are at their âhighest in history,â and there is no shortage of supply, Qatari Energy Minister Abdullah Bin Hamad al-Attiyah said yesterday at a press conference in Doha. Qatar is the second-smallest producer in the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, which pumps about 40 percent of the worldâs oil.
Itâs âprematureâ to declare that the current slump is over, the National Bureau of Economic Researchâs Business Cycle Dating Committee said in a statement on its Web site yesterday. The body is responsible for determining when U.S. recessions begin and end.
U.S. gasoline inventories probably dropped 1 million barrels from 222.4 million the prior week, according to the survey. Stockpiles of distillate fuel, a category that includes heating oil and diesel, rose 1 million barrels from 145.7 million the prior week, said the survey.
The industry-funded American Petroleum Institute will issue its own weekly report at 4:30 p.m. in Washington D.C. today.
Brent Overtakes Nymex
âBulls are correct in their assumption that demand is recovering on a global level,â said Stephen Schork, president of the Schork Group Inc., in a daily report. âOn the other hand, the bears are vindicated with crude oil supplies 11 percent above the 2004-2008 average.â
Schork is maintaining a neutral outlook for prices until levels âsettle significantly distant from $85.â
The Brent price overtook the Nymex price for the first time since Dec. 21, based on the May contracts. The ICE future is trading at 94 cents a barrel premium to New York.
Brent May futures expire on April 15. The more active June contract was at $85.48 a barrel, down 23 cents, at 12:39 p.m. local time.
To contact the reporter on this story: Alexander Kwiatkowski in London at akwiatkowsk2@bloomberg.net
Last Updated: April 13, 2010 07:58 EDT
Quote from F112358:
IIRC... you were making 3-4k a week trading stocks...
so... why insist on trading CL with 5 times the risk ...and 25% of the reward...?
Unless you like pain...like many I know... (Hello mirror!).
I like the number of opportunities CL presents each day and I do well focusing on one thing. I no longer have stock charts on my platform at all. Just CL and ES.
OK I'll be honest, I'm totally addicted. POT was my gateway trade...
like profit-taking , short covering rally or whatever. just I said I realized it itself is a gamble. the idea may be right or wrong. so I tag myself as a gambler. I could not realize those trading ideas any how so far, basically try to hit 10 ticks or 20 ticks gain, or so callled scalping. the price jumped around, just take advantage of it or either get killed like last thursday.
I am a beginning gambler, did not get hurt and make some is alreday a blessing to me.
I am a beginning gambler, did not get hurt and make some is alreday a blessing to me.
Long 82.85, .15 stop
Quote from NoDoji:
Support so far is being well-established at the rising 20-bar MA on my 3-month daily chart. A break down should take price well below 82.00 (in a rational market)
I'm thinking this might not be out of the question today. I can't believe I've been staring at my chart thinking, "too low to short" again and again, waiting for price to stage a bounce, but no bounce, just down down it went.
Looks like the lod, week was just put in to me