CL Redux

think or act before hand. if I saw price shots to the moon, I immediately put a stop limit order to lock profit or go short (you can not care much about how high it will continue to shoot), if I saw price drops to the climax level (you can not care about much about how low it will keep dropping, the only thing you need care is it is time to get on the rebound wagon, the big picture is in your favor), I immediately put a stop limit order to buy. you can not find confirmation in the market, if you are a bull, then you need be a bull; if you are a bear, then you need be a bear. often, I lost or missed the most beautiful move because when I should be a bull or a bear, I was a sheep, I was thinking about how I am not get hurt.

do not turn on your paper account when you do live trading. live trading needs your full attention or your efforts. the paper account's position will let you lose focus.



Quote from oraclewizard77:



The problem I am having on CL is I see a price I want to go in at, and the market jumps 10 ticks before I can even place my order. I think I need to try to have my order in a little faster or before the move once I start thinking that I am looking to place an order.

Also, got lucky since my 1st order long of the day while it got stopped out, I found out I was actually in sim not in real money.
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Quote from trader198:

think or act before hand. if I saw price shots to the moon, I immediately put a stop limit order to lock profit or go short (you can not care much about how high it will continue to shoot), if I saw price drops to the climax level (you can not care about much about how low it will keep dropping, the only thing you need care is it is time to get on the rebound wagon, the big picture is in your favor), I immediately put a stop limit order to buy. you can not find confirmation in the market, if you are a bull, then you need be a bull; if you are a bear, then you need be a bear. often, I lost or missed the most beautiful move because when I should be a bull or a bear, I was a sheep, I was thinking about how I am not get hurt.

do not turn on your paper account when you do live trading. live trading needs your full attention or your efforts. the paper account's position will let you lose focus.
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Sorry, but that sounds more like gambling to me than a calculated risk. First, you should alway know where an optimal place of entry is long before price reaches that level. Next, you should have a determined risk in mind. This can easily be calculated by detecting the nearest pivot such as S/R from that entry point. Before thinking about any potential profit, ya should always think about possible losses and how much.
 
Quote from schizo:

Sorry, but that sounds more like gambling to me than a calculated risk. First, you should alway know where an optimal place of entry is long before price reaches that level. Next, you should have a determined risk in mind. This can easily be calculated by detecting the nearest pivot such as S/R from that entry point. Before thinking about any potential profit, ya should always think about possible losses and how much.
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Good call

Think risk before profit and have clear outlined rules

Anything else will be donating to JP and Friends.
 
Quote from trader198:

think or act before hand. if I saw price shots to the moon, I immediately put a stop limit order to lock profit or go short (you can not care much about how high it will continue to shoot), if I saw price drops to the climax level (you can not care about much about how low it will keep dropping, the only thing you need care is it is time to get on the rebound wagon, the big picture is in your favor), I immediately put a stop limit order to buy.
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Can you define technically the price level "the moon" and also the price level "drops to the climax"?

Quote from trader198:

you can not find confirmation in the market, if you are a bull, then you need be a bull; if you are a bear, then you need be a bear.
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Confirmation from today's 5-min CL intraday chart:

8:35am bar - Lower high fails to break the falling 20-bar MA in a down trend, confirmed short entry, 54-tick move.

9:30am bar - Support at a higher low near the now-rising 20-bar MA, confirmed long entry, 70-tick move

10:00am bar - Support at a higher low above the rising 20-bar MA, confirmed long entry, 63-tick move

12:20pm bar - Resistance at a lower high near the now-falling 20-bar MA, confirmed short entry, 65-tick move

11:50am bar - Range breakdown off a lower high, confirmed short entry, 65-tick move

or...

12:20pm bar - Resistance at a lower high near the now-falling 20-bar MA, confirmed short entry, 65-tick move

01:05pm bar - Lower high at the falling 20-bar MA, confirmed short entry, 77-tick move

These are the major moves today that were confirmed. If you capture 50% of each move, there's a good day's pay. I will consider myself a real professional when I can do that consistently.

There are additional confirmed signals, like green hammers at the bottom of a move down (8:00 am and 8:55 am bars) and red shooting stars at the top of move up (01:05pm bar).

There are also scalpable minor moves all day, but I would like get away from the scalping mentality and start trusting the larger moves. My initial targets are almost always accurate, but I never trust them and get shaken out.

If you believe you can't find confirmation in the market, then you definitely are gambling.
 
Although the a MA is not what I use I’ll just add a thought that may help others reading the journal.

An edge by my definition is something that on probabilities you come out ahead. What this obviously means is that it does not work all the time. It is something that you need to protect, from yourself.

Although my edge was not as clearly defined, one of my BIGGEST mistakes in the early days was over thinking a working edge, trying to tinker and improve a method that was already working. In the confusion I lost the edge, my income and my balls :eek:

In the end it lead me down this long path to where I am today
 
I use fundamental reasons to be ahead of the game, not technical. technical signals are just my assisting tools, that is why I use mental stop. my suspect is right, the contract will expire, big players are dumping, that is my fundamental reason.
I do not gamble. I played crude since I got laid off last september. from this year on, my major profit came from longing/shorting crude, next is from shorting natural gas. I did not do well in stock indeces and gold, so I do not trade them.



Quote from NoDoji:

Can you define technically the price level "the moon" and also the price level "drops to the climax"?

If you believe you can't find confirmation in the market, then you definitely are gambling.
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admit, I am still not good at taking advantage of my right trading idea. to me, I must have a fundamental reason: profit -taking, etc., then use chart/quote price movements to confirm my idea, then I will initiate a trade most time. often I was shaken out of those little counter-major trend waves. the reason is my account is too tiny, just good enough to do one contract, could not tolerate too much temporary risk. so I basically do scalping, hit and run. most time pretty successful, sometime wounded. I think after I build my account to trade 2contracts, I will do overnight holding/day swing.


Quote from trader198:

I use fundamental reasons to be ahead of the game, not technical. technical signals are just my assisting tools, that is why I use mental stop. my suspect is right, the contract will expire, big players are dumping, that is my fundamental reason.
I do not gamble. I played crude since I got laid off last september. from this year on, my major profit came from longing/shorting crude, next is from shorting natural gas. I did not do well in stock indeces and gold, so I do not trade them.
More...
 
I missed the move, bought qm at 83.575, sold it too early because of writing this posting.

first I need clarify I am not a gambler. I think trading is like a phsician's work. after he heard about the patient's complains, he got some basic diagnosis about the patient's illness. then he may order ct-scan etc., take temperature, measure blood pressure etc. to continue to verify his judgement. trading is not just like reading a chart or so called technical, that is gambling.
if you spot a "black spot" on the ct-scan, then you said it is a cancer tumor, that is a laugh.

actually wrong diagnosis in phsicians statistically is 50%, most people do not realize it.

I will not invlove in this arguement any more here since I lose focus on my trading. anyway, good luck.


Quote from trader198:

admit, I am still not good at taking advantage of my right trading idea. to me, I must have a fundamental reason: profit -taking, etc., then use chart/quote price movements to confirm my idea, then I will initiate a trade most time. often I was shaken out of those little counter-major trend waves. the reason is my account is too tiny, just good enough to do one contract, could not tolerate too much temporary risk. so I basically do scalping, hit and run. most time pretty successful, sometime wounded. I think after I build my account to trade 2contracts, I will do overnight holding/day swing.
More...
 
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