CL Redux

Quote from enochbenjamin:

I have a VERY simple strategy for trading oil but I want to continue to learn how others attack the beast. Can you all tell me why you chose to short just below 8000 and not at 8050? From my VERY BASIC analysis the place to go short was around 8040.

<a href="http://content.screencast.com/users/enochbenjamin/folders/Jing/media/b0aaf94f-1b65-435b-ae1b-b066da628d01/00000055.png"><img class="embeddedObject" src="http://content.screencast.com/users/enochbenjamin/folders/Jing/media/b0aaf94f-1b65-435b-ae1b-b066da628d01/00000055.png" width="1045" height="592" border="0" /></a>

I am not questioning anyone as I know there are far greater (and lesser) traders than myself. I only ask for additional insight.

Thx!
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The 5 min chart is a great filter to show you the “shooting star” but you are missing all the detailed information that price has to convey. You need to look inside those candles (sub minute charts), dissect and analyze and you will see the wealth of information that you have been missing. Price and volume that’s all you need.

That’s all I have to say about that :D
 
Quote from gobar:

if you look at 1, 5 min u will see bear and if you look at 15 and 30 min you will see bull

which one is right?
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I never trade those Rorschach images.
 
Have enough lubes at your side just in case you get reamed. As for me, I'll be flipping come rain or shine. :D

Check out the daily chart and you'll see that we've just hit the super long trendline that extends back to the low back in Februrary. Hence, it's possible that we get a pop going forward. Still, I would like to see 75-ish ("target" below).

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Quote from saliva:

Have enough lubes at your side just in case you get reamed. As for me, I'll be flipping come rain or shine. :D

Check out the daily chart and you'll see that we've just hit the super long trendline that extends back to the low back in Februrary. Hence, it's possible that we get a pop going forward. Still, I would like to see 75-ish ("target" below).
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I agree with you on your target 75. I do not see much value to your latest trendline though, too steep.
 
Quote from Speciaul_K:

I agree with you on your target 75. I do not see much value to your latest trendline though, too steep.
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Although I prefer "too shallow" over "too steep", in terms of the correction we're currently undergoing, you're right. However, you should note that the trendline was touched yesterday. We never managed to even retest that low today. Moreover, the low of today actually bounced off another trendline that's connected between yesterday's low and 12/15, which happens to be the most recent TL to date. If that one should stick, then there's a good chance that we head right back up. Of course, all bets are off once that TL is breached.
 
Given the current price in January, I predict oil reaches 100 this summer. For the next hafl year, we will be trading between 80 and 100. If things get hot, we may go above 100 for a few days.

I heard some hedge funds are going to liquidate their short positions initiated around Labor Day last year. They are going to take a huge loss. When you trade long-term, your loss tends to be big, if it doesn't work out for you.
 
Quote from saliva:

Although I prefer "too shallow" over "too steep", in terms of the correction we're currently undergoing, you're right. However, you should note that the trendline was touched yesterday. We never managed to even retest that low today. Moreover, the low of today actually bounced off another trendline that's connected between yesterday's low and 12/15, which happens to be the most recent TL to date. If that one should stick, then there's a good chance that we head right back up. Of course, all bets are off once that TL is breached.
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Yesterdays bounch was off the 50day MA when using a continuous chart on tradestation
 
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