CL Redux

well, that is one of the paradoxes of that trading style, a bunch of these guys will miss the major move, and many will be left holding the bag, when the big boys sell it off.

unless this thing is going to 90, the latecomers are like late investors in a ponzi scheme....they push it up just enough so the smart money offloads into the sheep.

84 is the tops by my calculation for this run,( if that) before a tired move , gets exhausted...and the thing has atleast a 3 day selloff correction on econ news, equities selling off, profit taking, inventory, etc.

like a friday, monday, tuesday mid morning correction.
 
Quote from BlueStreek:

well, that is one of the paradoxes of that trading style, a bunch of these guys will miss the major move, and many will be left holding the bag, when the big boys sell it off.

unless this thing is going to 90, the latecomers are like late investors in a ponzi scheme....they push it up just enough so the smart money offloads into the sheep.

84 is the tops by my calculation for this run,( if that) before a tired move , gets exhausted...and the thing has atleast a 3 day selloff correction on econ news, equities selling off, profit taking, inventory, etc.

like a friday, monday, tuesday mid morning correction.
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I sort of agree with BlueStreek, and I know most you don't believe in fundamentals, but i still believe until certain point they are valuable, and in my opinion, we shouldn't be this high, is not squeeze in oil supply if anything we have plenty of supply and i have the feeling that's what the report will show tomorrow, the reports today show a little improvement in salaries, but people are spending less, we are already passing the summer driving season, so all the gasoline that we need for the summer has been refine, we are now working towards the winter, and historically speaking Oil should go into Backwardation in this months, and has fail to do that miserable, reflecting the big amount of Oil that we have. The Brent Oil is 10 cents more expensive than NYMEX Oil which suggest that we are not consuming as much in is more profitable to ship oil to Europe.

The only, Bullish factor in Oil side right now is the weak dollar, but like I said this morning the relationship Dollar Index (DX) and CL, should place Oil between 80-81. Like BlueStreek said I believe many people will be caught in this fake move (lack of Volume).
 
Quote from mrbochin23:

I sort of agree with BlueStreek, and I know most you don't believe in fundamentals, but i still believe until certain point they are valuable, and in my opinion, we shouldn't be this high, is not squeeze in oil supply if anything we have plenty of supply and i have the feeling that's what the report will show tomorrow, the reports today show a little improvement in salaries, but people are spending less, we are already passing the summer driving season, so all the gasoline that we need for the summer has been refine, we are now working towards the winter, and historically speaking Oil should go into Backwardation in this months, and has fail to do that miserable, reflecting the big amount of Oil that we have. The Brent Oil is 10 cents more expensive than NYMEX Oil which suggest that we are not consuming as much in is more profitable to ship oil to Europe.

The only, Bullish factor in Oil side right now is the weak dollar, but like I said this morning the relationship Dollar Index (DX) and CL, should place Oil between 80-81. Like BlueStreek said I believe many people will be caught in this fake move (lack of Volume).
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Technically we should not be this high but there is no one hitting the bid for the last couple of days
 
Crude: - 776 K


Cushing: + 666 K


Gasoline: + 2.3 MB


Total Distillates: + 1.1 MB


Refinery Runs: - 0.7 % to 86.7 % vs. 87.4 % from a week ago.


Crude Imports: - 1.358 MB
 
The API numbers:

US API Crude Oil Inventories -775K vs Prev. 3084K

US API Gasoline Inventories W/W (JUL 30) 2305K vs Prev. 877K
US API Distillate Inventory W/W (JUL 30) 1109K vs Prev. 407K
US API Cushing Crude Inventory W/W(JUL 30) 666K vs Prev. 465K
 
Quote from mrbochin23:

can we have a clue base on price action before the report comes out?
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Hahahahahahahahahaha!

(Sorry.) :cool:

I don't even have a clue AFTER the report comes out. The price action around that report is simply random, every damn week!
 
well, you couldn`t of scripted econ news any better suited for a 2 dollar selloff today, everything missed and was revised down.

but none of this matters: the market movers decide when news matters.

right now every dip is being bought up hard, it will take a nasty selloff to bring back two-sided markets, bulls own this thing the last 5 weeks.

will be interesting if on wed and thurs a big fish wants out before the jobs number so we have 100 point selloff in equities.

so regardless, appears cushing keeps getting more inventory, will be real interesting come expiration with what appears are near capacity storage levels there.
 
I feel I might have did a Nodoji combined with what I was learning in the forex room.

Basically, I was thinking trend was up and wanted to get in at a better price.

1st on GBP/USD, I got in trade on limit, and it went 2 ticks in my favor, and then started to reverse. I then looked at another level close to my stop, so removed stop and was thinking about entering 2nd contract, when market went back up past my entry. Well, I did not want to take the trade off at BE, but I decided its either going to keep going up if bullish or not go down much more, so I brought up my stop. Well, market hit my stop for 6 ticks, and then did keep going down.

So then I looked at CL again same plan. Had limit order set to go long, played some video games, came back and market was 3 ticks to my limit order, and looked like it was going to base there, so I went long market.

Then market did go 5 ticks in my favor. Now my thought was this was either a good support level since CL had already fallen over 40 ticks from high, or CL had totally reversed and it was just going to keep going down all night long.

So my options at this point with the market frozen around 2 - 5 ticks in my favor was to try for one of the 1st times for a longer target or just take 5 ticks of profit. Now if I keep taking small profits and leaving large losses, then no matter how good my edge, I am going to lose money. So basically set a 20 tick target with a small stop under my entry level, and played some games since market was not moving.

Came back, and saw I was 17 ticks in my favor and near a small resistance. So my options now were wait for 3 more ticks, or kill the trade at a profit that will erase the loss of the other trade, plus give me a 10 tick profit. So I killed the trade at a nice profit.

The main thing I am happy about is that I finally had a bigger win than my loss. Also, this helps make up for the dumb mistakes I did earlier, which was instead of lettering es come to my limit price, I chased it when it came withing .25 ticks and then rose, which turned a winning trade into a losing trade since my stop was no longer at a good place. Also, I shorted at 1118 after hours, and instead of leaving the trade alone which also would have been a winner, decided to kill it since market was not moving and thought I might have been revenge trading. The ES did fall.
 
Quote from oraclewizard77:

I feel I might have did a Nodoji combined with what I was learning in the forex room.

Basically, I was thinking trend was up and wanted to get in at a better price.

1st on GBP/USD, I got in trade on limit, and it went 2 ticks in my favor, and then started to reverse. I then looked at another level close to my stop, so removed stop and was thinking about entering 2nd contract, when market went back up past my entry. Well, I did not want to take the trade off at BE, but I decided its either going to keep going up if bullish or not go down much more, so I brought up my stop. Well, market hit my stop for 6 ticks, and then did keep going down.

So then I looked at CL again same plan. Had limit order set to go long, played some video games, came back and market was 3 ticks to my limit order, and looked like it was going to base there, so I went long market.

Then market did go 5 ticks in my favor. Now my thought was this was either a good support level since CL had already fallen over 40 ticks from high, or CL had totally reversed and it was just going to keep going down all night long.

So my options at this point with the market frozen around 2 - 5 ticks in my favor was to try for one of the 1st times for a longer target or just take 5 ticks of profit. Now if I keep taking small profits and leaving large losses, then no matter how good my edge, I am going to lose money. So basically set a 20 tick target with a small stop under my entry level, and played some games since market was not moving.

Came back, and saw I was 17 ticks in my favor and near a small resistance. So my options now were wait for 3 more ticks, or kill the trade at a profit that will erase the loss of the other trade, plus give me a 10 tick profit. So I killed the trade at a nice profit.

The main thing I am happy about is that I finally had a bigger win than my loss. Also, this helps make up for the dumb mistakes I did earlier, which was instead of lettering es come to my limit price, I chased it when it came withing .25 ticks and then rose, which turned a winning trade into a losing trade since my stop was no longer at a good place. Also, I shorted at 1118 after hours, and instead of leaving the trade alone which also would have been a winner, decided to kill it since market was not moving and thought I might have been revenge trading. The ES did fall.
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Set your s/l before you put the trade on, what u playing, mag?
 
I was playing Bad Company 2, which is a real good game but addictive, but I had no drugs, alcohol, or cigs so guess its a better than those.

I have an automatic stop, limit built into my order entry. For ES, I usually just leave the auto as is. For CL and GBP, I base the stop and limit on what my charts are telling me plus PA.

I looked back over the trade, and although the market did fall 5 ticks after I got out of the CL trade, it then did in fact go up and would have given me the 3 extract ticks I was looking for. I now see what target I should have been looking for the market to go to, and I could have left it alone.

CL seems more like Newton 1st Law of Motion, in that a body in motion ie price will continue to in motion unless acted upon by an outside force.

http://www.learner.org/interactives/parkphysics/bumpcars2.html

Quote from Speciaul_K:

Set your s/l before you put the trade on, what u playing, mag?
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