CL Redux

Quote from Speciaul_K:

I noticed yesterday that you said you were thinking that the market might run higher.
Just trying to help ya out. Not trying to give you a hard time
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I know you are. Thanks.
 
great day, guys. late I bought crude again. realized the 85 PT.

then got out of my natural gas at 4.397, shorted it and nailed it at 4.351, still did not realized my PT at 4.331!still happy, Schizo is really good at holding, get to learn from him.
 
Quote from NoDoji:

No, I couldn't NOT trade for an entire day.

I returned a while ago and observed an interesting breakout pattern with a certain number of bars followed by a pullback. I got a wild hair and traded it just to see if it would work again, shorting 85.07, pullback from the 3rd bar up, targeting 84.81 (talk about a near miss).

Do any of you counter-trend trade off bar counts? Today it really repeated consistently, 3 up bars starting with the breakout bar, followed by about a 30-tick pullback.

EDIT: I see I misnamed my attachment ES instead of CL. Pay no attention to the name...
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Quote from trader198:

great day, guys. late I bought crude again. realized the 85 PT.

then got out of my natural gas at 4.397, shorted it and nailed it at 4.351, still did not realized my PT at 4.331!still happy, Schizo is really good at holding, get to learn from him.
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I did a crazy experiment myself today, which I will post in What's Worse: Missing the Move Entirely or Giving All Your Profit Back?
 
Quote from NoDoji:



Do any of you counter-trend trade off bar counts? Today it really repeated consistently, 3 up bars starting with the breakout bar, followed by about a 30-tick pullback.
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I've heard of a 1-2-3 pullback but I have never counted bars myself.

Im a staunch beliver in technicals, but anything with hard-counts seems to fly in the face of reason. Countless hours of charts have shown me markets can always suprise, I have a hard time risking money because a certain count was fulfilled. I belive if you get too involved in rigid counts and suchlike you are missing the bigger picture which is the supply/demand relationship.
 
Quote from spd:

I've heard of a 1-2-3 pullback but I have never counted bars myself.

Im a staunch beliver in technicals, but anything with hard-counts seems to fly in the face of reason. Countless hours of charts have shown me markets can always suprise, I have a hard time risking money because a certain count was fulfilled. I belive if you get too involved in rigid counts and suchlike you are missing the bigger picture which is the supply/demand relationship.
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It was just one of those things I noticed right away when I returned to my desk and looked at the chart late in the day. I actually was surprised it worked so predictably a third time. My risk (.06) on the trade was so minor compared to the target zone (.26) that I just had to try it.
 
Quote from NoDoji:


I returned a while ago and observed an interesting breakout pattern with a certain number of bars followed by a pullback. I got a wild hair and traded it just to see if it would work again, shorting 85.07, pullback from the 3rd bar up, targeting 84.81 (talk about a near miss).

Do any of you counter-trend trade off bar counts? Today it really repeated consistently, 3 up bars starting with the breakout bar, followed by about a 30-tick pullback.
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Interesting comments. Firstly, you've not said which timezone your blotters are in so it will not always be easy for others to give you feedback. I see it is 3 hours behind EST. Try to always quote in the market time. I could see by the price this time, but that will not always be the case. Best to make it as quick and straighforward as possible for people to help you.

That is a very advanced trade you took. I would say you "got away with it" this time. The exit was reasonable, but it was never going to .81 right away. Targeting .91 would have been more sensible. You had four minutes to get out at that price or better.

Counter trading off bar counts. Sounds a bit arbitrary. What is special about 3x your bar length? What about people who trade using different charts? What you are really saying is that the market will get tired after a certain time interval. What is that interval, can it be predicted, and is it likely to reoccur?

What would increase the length of time between pullbacks? Decrease it? Is the answer different for different places in a trend? How does volume influence your decisions when trading couner trend?

Sorry, but there is a lot more to it than counting bars - although ask yourself some more questions about it as you are on to something interesting, but not what you think it is just now...
 
Quote from spd:

Im a staunch beliver in technicals, but anything with hard-counts seems to fly in the face of reason. Countless hours of charts have shown me markets can always suprise, I have a hard time risking money because a certain count was fulfilled. I belive if you get too involved in rigid counts and suchlike you are missing the bigger picture which is the supply/demand relationship.
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You're not really counting bars per se, but the duration of the underlying trend or what I call price swings. For instance, if the first price swing takes 1 hour to complete, you would be surprised to find out the successive price swing also took 1 hour.
 
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