Quote from cmb:
Took 2 trades on CL thursday. Unable to do any trading yesterday.
Trade 1---horrible trade, looking back at it 2 days later I am thinking why did I even trade it!, Just to press the button I guess. Short at 97.57, at the time I was expecting a move down to 97.45-.40 area on the break below the .60. Did not happen and I closed at 97.70. 2x -13 ticks.
Trade 2--- Planned and executed much better. 5m chart did not close above 20EMA, and 1 minute broke below the base that was formed at the double top. SHort at 97.70. Closed 1 at .58 and 1 at .55. 1x 12 ticks, 1x 15 ticks.
chart is central time.
The first trade idea wasn't horrible, the entry was low odds. You look to the left and you see the market environment is a range. Initial breaks out of ranges fail far more often than not, so you want to position in advance of the test of the range extreme(s). You positioned just a few ticks prior to the test of a key range level, so you'd want to see a strong break or just bail quickly because you're not dealing with a high odds breakout like a new high or low in a strong trend.
The second trade was high odds because price had trapped some bulls and was now likely to test that previous downside failed breakout off a much lower high, meaning a new low is likely.
