CL Redux

There are 3 Major REPORTs/Events on Friday that can affect CRUDE OIL Prices

<b>1/ What to expect in Employment Report
-----------------------------------------------------</b>
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/dollar-dances-higher-ahead-of-jobs-report-2013-11-08

The U.S. jobs numbers for October are due out at <b> 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time</b>, and economists surveyed by MarketWatch expect
a/ October nonfarm payrolls to rise 100,000 after a 148,000 increase in September,
b/ with the unemployment rate ticking higher to 7.4% from 7.2%


<b>2/ Bernanke headlines Fed-speech triple bill on Friday
-----------------------------------------------------------------------</b>

http://blogs.marketwatch.com/capito...e-headlines-fed-speech-triple-bill-on-friday/


2.1/ Earlier in the day, Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart will speak about the economic outlook at the University of Mississippi. Lockhart, although not a voting member of the Fed’s policy-making committee, is a centrist and is often a good gauge of the direction the central bank is leaning. <b>Lockhart’s speech starts at noon Eastern.</b>

2.2 / Bernanke is participating in an all-star discussion of the 2008 .The panel, sponsored by the IMF, starts at <b>3:30 p.m. Eastern. </b>
-- Bernanke’s prepared remarks are entitled ‘The Crisis as a Classic Financial Panic.” He will be taking questions from the audience.


<b>3/ Iran Nuclear Deal Expected as Early as Friday
--------------------------------------------------------------- </b>
 
Kerry in Geneva to push nuclear talks with Iran; says ‘important gaps’ remain


http://www.washingtonpost.com/world...245ede-4881-11e3-bf0c-cebf37c6f484_story.html

1/ “There is not an agreement at this point in time,” said Kerry, who was scheduled to sit down with Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif and European Union foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton later in the day. “There are still some very important issues on the table that are unresolved.”


2/ Ashton invited Kerry to Geneva after representatives on both sides of the negotiations indicated that gaps between them were closing fast. His counterparts from Germany, France and Great Britain quickly elected to join him.

3/ <b>If the remaining differences are not resolved by Saturday, officials said, a final agreement could come in a subsequent Geneva session, perhaps as soon as next week.</b>
 
Holy crap volatility has fucking just tanked this afternoon. I'm unwinding all short strangles as I speak. and I just got out of that outright long at .52 since the pop didn't take it to 95. I actually rejoined the working world so I have to get ready to go.
 
OIL Action on NFP day
---------------------

Took some trades not posted ahead, attached chart will give some ideas .

Took the SHORT at 94.88 into PIT Session Close, Here is the explanation.

1/ For last two weeks, ' PIT session last 30 minutes DAY Highs' were not Held into PIT session close. This is especially TRUE when the days were FLAT or showed sign of weakness most of the day action. Put in another way, 'SELL Programs' are triggered on the Day High Levels in the Last 30 minutes of PIT session. This pattern became so consistent .

2/ Also 94.88 is too far away from VWAP price considering it very close to PIT close on a FALT/Weak day.

3/ If OIL would have raised to 94.90 Level in the Morning RIGHT after 'Bullish NFP report', I would not have taken this SHORT.

4/ on Fundamental Side, Bullish NFP report at 5:30 CST ( 200,000 vs. 100,000 expected) gave signals to EARLY FED Tapper so OIL Dropped ( looking at GOLD which is FED Tapper Guage), then recovered from 94.0 Lows to account for Bullish NFP numbers.

5/ Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart Noon Talk , came as ' all options open for FED early Tapper'

6/ Iran Nuclear Deal is running into Delays, Deal or NoDeal will come either on Saturday or early next week .
 

Attachments

Quote from riskaddict:

Holy crap volatility has fucking just tanked this afternoon. I'm unwinding all short strangles as I speak. and I just got out of that outright long at .52 since the pop didn't take it to 95. I actually rejoined the working world so I have to get ready to go.
More...

what's your day job?
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top