CL Redux
- Thread starter schizo
- Start date
Where the hell is everybody?
Looking at the daily this is feeling like month and a half long continuation pattern. You have the initial fall from 100 to the highs 80's then that consolidated for a month then the drop from that range down to 84. Now we just need the 3rd leg to 78-74. I have no idea what is going on in the world but the euro is looking CRAZY! (I just got short at 1.3101) but with this dollar weakness and oil stable it just makes it feel like I should have a bearish bias.
Then again maybe yesterday was just a premature breakout before the real deal on friday. Either way i'm getting out of short strangle mode and in directional mode.
Looking at the daily this is feeling like month and a half long continuation pattern. You have the initial fall from 100 to the highs 80's then that consolidated for a month then the drop from that range down to 84. Now we just need the 3rd leg to 78-74. I have no idea what is going on in the world but the euro is looking CRAZY! (I just got short at 1.3101) but with this dollar weakness and oil stable it just makes it feel like I should have a bearish bias.
Then again maybe yesterday was just a premature breakout before the real deal on friday. Either way i'm getting out of short strangle mode and in directional mode.
Where the hell is everybody?
Looking at the daily this is feeling like month and a half long continuation pattern. You have the initial fall from 100 to the highs 80's then that consolidated for a month then the drop from that range down to 84. Now we just need the 3rd leg to 78-74. I have no idea what is going on in the world but the euro is looking CRAZY! (I just got short at 1.3101) but with this dollar weakness and oil stable it just makes it feel like I should have a bearish bias.
Then again maybe yesterday was just a premature breakout before the real deal on friday. Either way i'm getting out of short strangle mode and in directional mode.
Hedge Funds tried to move this up, just look at their increased positions going into the move but with the fiscal cliff when price got to the 90s, a bunch of the other side jumped all over that price, and many took some small profits and bailed.
The drawing out of the FC is hurting the x-mas rally crowd that wanted to move all risk assets up til the end of the year.
Inventories need to go down a little or any price spikes will be jumped on by the other side.
If their isn`t a grand plan resolution to the FC then any spike will be short term and sellers will come in and fade the rally if Inventories remain bearish - until proven otherwise the traders have been selling spikes and buying dips the past couple months.
Hedge Funds came in strong at 85.40, b/c they knew ahead of time that the GDP was going to be revised up and they wanted to frontrun that report, that was such an easy trade b/c everybody knew for techincal reasons the GDP report was going to be revised up to ~2.7%, who wouldn`t want to go long in front of that number, same thing with black friday are you really going to go short when "everybody" in the US is consuming massively - unless there is some unussual circumstance, just book it go long on Black Friday
Looking at the daily this is feeling like month and a half long continuation pattern. You have the initial fall from 100 to the highs 80's then that consolidated for a month then the drop from that range down to 84. Now we just need the 3rd leg to 78-74. I have no idea what is going on in the world but the euro is looking CRAZY! (I just got short at 1.3101) but with this dollar weakness and oil stable it just makes it feel like I should have a bearish bias.
Then again maybe yesterday was just a premature breakout before the real deal on friday. Either way i'm getting out of short strangle mode and in directional mode.
Hedge Funds tried to move this up, just look at their increased positions going into the move but with the fiscal cliff when price got to the 90s, a bunch of the other side jumped all over that price, and many took some small profits and bailed.
The drawing out of the FC is hurting the x-mas rally crowd that wanted to move all risk assets up til the end of the year.
Inventories need to go down a little or any price spikes will be jumped on by the other side.
If their isn`t a grand plan resolution to the FC then any spike will be short term and sellers will come in and fade the rally if Inventories remain bearish - until proven otherwise the traders have been selling spikes and buying dips the past couple months.
Hedge Funds came in strong at 85.40, b/c they knew ahead of time that the GDP was going to be revised up and they wanted to frontrun that report, that was such an easy trade b/c everybody knew for techincal reasons the GDP report was going to be revised up to ~2.7%, who wouldn`t want to go long in front of that number, same thing with black friday are you really going to go short when "everybody" in the US is consuming massively - unless there is some unussual circumstance, just book it go long on Black Friday