CL Redux
- Thread starter schizo
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Quote from Cheese
"I have many unanswered PMs but within this thread I will try and answer one of those PMs. The underlying assumption is daytrading.
Gyrations
This is a neutral description I use for the intraday price swings. An overbought/oversold criteria is not used. In CL I use a minimum of 40 points to delineate price swings, open to close. You can calculate them in hindsight and monitor them live as they develop and follow each other during any trading session. For example on Thursday (Nov 10, 2011), open to close, CL had 15 sequential swings at a mean average width of 69 points per swing, offering a maximum of 1043 points.
Trend
I don't use trend or trends, so called. What trend anyhow? From today, from yesterday, from 29 minutes ago or from 1929? And when are you going to join it? At the beginning or near the end or was that just another bend in the trend? Its a mindf**k you don't need. I prefer accuracy and swings are an arithmetical observation that circumscribes the ballpark within which you are a player (eg CL).
Targets
While you can use a target strategy to lift set gains from your trading signals, I normally use a trading system of signals and countersignals. In other words I buy on a buying signal and exit (or reverse) on the next selling signal. Or vice versa I sell on a selling signal and exit (or reverse) on the next buying signal."
"I have many unanswered PMs but within this thread I will try and answer one of those PMs. The underlying assumption is daytrading.
Gyrations
This is a neutral description I use for the intraday price swings. An overbought/oversold criteria is not used. In CL I use a minimum of 40 points to delineate price swings, open to close. You can calculate them in hindsight and monitor them live as they develop and follow each other during any trading session. For example on Thursday (Nov 10, 2011), open to close, CL had 15 sequential swings at a mean average width of 69 points per swing, offering a maximum of 1043 points.
Trend
I don't use trend or trends, so called. What trend anyhow? From today, from yesterday, from 29 minutes ago or from 1929? And when are you going to join it? At the beginning or near the end or was that just another bend in the trend? Its a mindf**k you don't need. I prefer accuracy and swings are an arithmetical observation that circumscribes the ballpark within which you are a player (eg CL).
Targets
While you can use a target strategy to lift set gains from your trading signals, I normally use a trading system of signals and countersignals. In other words I buy on a buying signal and exit (or reverse) on the next selling signal. Or vice versa I sell on a selling signal and exit (or reverse) on the next buying signal."
I currently use it as volatility analysis in order to know what is normal and what to expect on any given day in the market, but I have yet to put it into a predictive framework.
For example, with regards to the crude oil release, my data set showed that for the last 5 Wednesdays, 4 out of 5 times a sizeable swing of at least 70 cents (maximum 167 cents) occurred within 6 minutes after the release.
Yesterday, the swing started at 10:30 and measured 136 cents to the upside.
That is information that can possibly be exploited for profits.
I mentioned earlier how I seem to recall (will do a study to verify this) that crude oil typically moved sideways and volatility dried up for the last two hours of the pit close when I looked at it back in the day. Now, my data set tells me that with the recent volatility, more often than not, we have a swing of decent size into the close. That is also useful to know.
Again, I really recommend the posts of Cheese. I have never heard of anyone speaking of measuring the swings before I read his posts, but it really makes sense to me and I wonder why I never heard about it before.
Quote from dolphins10:
Quote from Cheese
"I have many unanswered PMs but within this thread I will try and answer one of those PMs. The underlying assumption is daytrading.
Gyrations
This is a neutral description I use for the intraday price swings. An overbought/oversold criteria is not used. In CL I use a minimum of 40 points to delineate price swings, open to close. You can calculate them in hindsight and monitor them live as they develop and follow each other during any trading session. For example on Thursday (Nov 10, 2011), open to close, CL had 15 sequential swings at a mean average width of 69 points per swing, offering a maximum of 1043 points.
Trend
I don't use trend or trends, so called. What trend anyhow? From today, from yesterday, from 29 minutes ago or from 1929? And when are you going to join it? At the beginning or near the end or was that just another bend in the trend? Its a mindf**k you don't need. I prefer accuracy and swings are an arithmetical observation that circumscribes the ballpark within which you are a player (eg CL).
Targets
While you can use a target strategy to lift set gains from your trading signals, I normally use a trading system of signals and countersignals. In other words I buy on a buying signal and exit (or reverse) on the next selling signal. Or vice versa I sell on a selling signal and exit (or reverse) on the next buying signal."
Thanks for digging that up.
Quote from Laissez Faire:
I currently use it as volatility analysis in order to know what is normal and what to expect on any given day in the market, but I have yet to put it into a predictive framework.
For example, with regards to the crude oil release, my data set showed that for the last 5 Wednesdays, 4 out of 5 times a sizeable swing of at least 70 cents (maximum 167 cents) occurred within 6 minutes after the release.
Yesterday, the swing started at 10:30 and measured 136 cents to the upside.
That is information that can possibly be exploited for profits.
I mentioned earlier how I seem to recall (will do a study to verify this) that crude oil typically moved sideways and volatility dried up for the last two hours of the pit close when I looked at it back in the day. Now, my data set tells me that with the recent volatility, more often than not, we have a swing of decent size into the close. That is also useful to know.
Again, I really recommend the posts of Cheese. I have never heard of anyone speaking of measuring the swings before I read his posts, but it really makes sense to me and I wonder why I never heard about it before.
I see, thanks. I once collected the intra-day swing data for ES for awhile and found the "every day" information utterly useless ... lol. However under limited circumstances I did find it useful, similar to what you're doing by studying the patterns of CL on inventory days (which I've also done and found useful).
I`m biased towards the up side currently, but scratched my long when we lost momentum at the new highs.
Looks like we may be building energy for a breakout to the upside, but I`m not entering anything right here.
98,25/65 above first stop if higher?
Looks like we may be building energy for a breakout to the upside, but I`m not entering anything right here.
98,25/65 above first stop if higher?
Let`s see if we find support around 30.
Fake break below 30 was at least a good entry.
Let`s see if there`s legs to it now.
Let`s see if there`s legs to it now.
Bears not capitulating yet.
Eventually, somethings gotta give, right?
Eventually, somethings gotta give, right?