CL Redux

Quote from JoshDance:

Only speaking for myself, NO!! There are good trades and bad trades I do not post, and I am up today but not NEARLY as much as I should be. I have good days, and crappy days. You want to see really good days, NoDoji is your girl :-) I'm trying to learn from all these other guys and girls how it's done!



That's how I feel when I am getting MY butt kicked and read BCE's posts :D
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BCE even makes a ton of money when his computer breaks, & his entries & exits seem incredibly precise sometimes. I need to know how to do that !

I've read a ton of NoDoji's posts, so I've learned a bunch. Still working on perfecting my plan; today has made it loud & clear my plan is not perfected. :(
 
Quote from macattack:

Josh & BCE,

Are you guys profitable every single day? I recently started reading the posts in this thread each day & all I see from you guys are tiny little losses & nice, juicy profits. You make it look easy.

Unfortunately if you saw my trades I do not make it look easy, so I was just wondering if it's really that easy for you guys.

It's really irritating to read your posts when I'm getting my butt kicked. :) :) :)
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Quote from BCE:

Cover @.100.27 Oh, well. :) May reenter. Tried to bring up a chart of all my trades but it's a 1 min and wouldn't show the earlier ones.

Hey, now I'm up 14 ticks for the day. That must be a record for inefficiency in a market like today. :) But at least now I can retire to a life of luxury.
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Did you see this post? I got here late again, and as NoDoji pointed out in her PM just now, which I'll answer later, wasn't really looking at levels of support and resistance. I just saw the continual hammer downs in the DOM on any rally attempt. And CL wasn't trading off of the other main things I look at to decide entries and direction. No big deal. Another thing is I missed some of those moves while I was taking a break, but also missed some others as it seemed to have "run too far". :) My take is that behind of lot of this today was just someone dumping earlier and then someone or someones jumping in to buy. I saw earlier that George Soros is liquidating some of his funds. Maybe that was it. :)

Mac, maybe you should paper trade this for awhile until you get the hang of it. It definitely takes a while to learn this one so don't be discouraged. Just keep observing and learning.
 
Quote from wolfpacker:

What was the signal here? I am looking to go short again.
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Last week's high is 100.19, volume absorption and shift to buy volume at 12:47, buy a break of that 1m bar. EDIT: The buying was not super strong at .20 which I expected it to be. If the stop would be much higher, I would not take this trade. I see no compelling reason to short, hence I'm going with the trend.

Risk is very low, initial stop 7 ticks, potential upside at least to .40
 
And this is the short from a few minutes ago. This isn't my best day obviously, but I'm not down on myself. Hey, we do our best and some days we're not tuned into the right things. There are a lot of indicators I look at and the ones I was focused on didn't go the way they generally do. I'd say my biggest "mistake" or lesson learned this morning was not giving the price action in the DOM more weight as it was obvious to me what was up and you could definitely feel the hammer down selling pressure. I was too focused on other things. But in the end no matter what your indicators say Price Action is King.

P.S. The way I look at it, everyday you learn something and at least make some money is a good day. Some days are better than others. And sometimes even if you've lost money that can be a good day too in the bigger picture if you've learned some good lessons.
 

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Quote from BCE:

Did you see this post? I got here late again, and as NoDoji pointed out in her PM just now, which I'll answer later, wasn't really looking at levels of support and resistance. I just saw the continual hammer downs in the DOM on any rally attempt. And CL wasn't trading off of the other main things I look at to decide entries and direction. No big deal. Another thing is I missed some of those moves on breaks, but also missed some others as it seemed to have "run too far". :) My take is that behind of lot of this today was just someone dumping earlier and then someone or someones jumping in to buy. I saw earlier that George Soros is liquidating some of his funds. Maybe that was it. :)

Mac, maybe you should paper trade this for awhile until you get the hang of it. It definitely takes a while to learn this one so don't be discouraged. Just keep observing and learning.
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I did see that trade. Even your bad trade made money.
You're pretty good at this. I'm just paper trading right now. I've lost enough money in the past, so I won't trade live until I have mastered the sim.
 
Quote from macattack:

I did see that trade. Even your bad trade made money.
You're pretty good at this. I'm just paper trading right now. I've lost enough money in the past, so I won't trade live until I have mastered the sim.
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Thanks for the compliments mac. My worst trade today was a 9 tick loss this morning, so that's really pretty small. I could have cut that down, and should have, considering the price action, as I was up at first. Mainly I missed the biggest moves up while I was taking various breaks from trading. I've been fortunate lately to not even be here all day and still do very well. And I've seen a marked improvement in my own trading. I spent a lot of time (months) just observing to learn CL, even provoking NoDoji at one point to tell me to "nut up!" and trade. True ND, isn't it? :D Ha.

That's good you're paper trading mac. NoDoji did this too at first for quite a while as I recall. Hang in there and keep after it and you'll get it. :)
 
Futures Movers

July 26, 2011, 12:22 p.m. EDT
Oil turns higher as debt-ceiling debate rages on

By Claudia Assis and Myra P. Saefong, MarketWatch

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) — Crude-oil futures turned higher Tuesday as the dollar weakened, but prices remained under pressure on wrangling over the U.S. debt ceiling.

Crude for September delivery (NMN:CL1U) rose 20 cents, or 0.2%, to $99.40 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange after touching a low of $97.82.

Support came from the lower dollar as well as positive data on consumer confidence.

The Conference Board reported Tuesday that consumer confidence rose to 59.5 in July from a downwardly revised 57.6 in June, helping oil prices pare some of their earlier losses. Oil was trading below $98 ahead of the report.

Also midmorning, the Commerce Department said sales of new single-family homes fell 1% in June to an annual rate of 312,000, falling short of economists’ forecasts for an increase to 325,000.

A failure to reach an agreement to raise the U.S. debt ceiling could cause a selloff in oil prices, said Darin Newsom, a senior analyst at Telvent DTN.

Late Monday, President Barack Obama and House Speaker John Boehner touted rival plans to cut the U.S. deficit and lift the debt ceiling in back-to-back television appearances. Read more about Obama’s and Boehner’s rival plans.

Even if a deal is finally reached, that may boost the dollar, Newsom said. A stronger dollar tends to also put pressure on dollar-denominated oil prices.

The dollar index (NYE-DXY) , which tracks the U.S. unit’s performance against a basket of six other currencies, slipped further to 73.601, down from 74.074 late Monday. Read more about currencies action.

Other energy futures turned higher with oil.

August heating oil (NMN:HO1Q) gained 1 cent, or 0.4%, to $3.12 a gallon and August gasoline (NMN:RB1Q) advanced 2 cents, or 0.7%, to $3.15 a gallon.

August natural gas (NMN:NG11Q) kept its losses and traded 5 cents lower at $4.33 per million British thermal units.
 
I should be posting my breaks like you do ND. Was just talking to a lady friend of mine and totally missed that huge move. Missed them all today on breaks. I was telling my friend this. :) Oh, well. Keep your losses small and you'll do well. And days you miss some action are no problem. There's always the next one. :)

P.S. I'd call today's action very unusual. Rallies and selloffs seemingly on their own.

ADD: FWIW when I don't feel like I have a good sense of what's up I just step to the side. No problem.
 
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