CL Redux
- Thread starter schizo
- Start date
I think this chart, the way it's drawn anyway, is a stretch to find any support today on it. Unless it's super obvious, which it's not, then no one is going to see it. The lows in August 2010 are breached by the line; I can't imagine anyone else really drawing it that way.
In this post a while back I posted the back-adjusted August contract, and even the non-backadjusted continuous contract (which the one posted here is, which is not as accurate for high-low swings), shows support two weeks ago, but nothing today.
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=3227508#post3227508
Attached is the weekly continuous non-backadjusted contract.
short 97.15, target 96-
imagine you were the saudi king and 50%,maybe 80%,of your income was made from oil,and you have been in and out every other 2 weeks or months on highs and lows,so you are not looking for precision 15 minute or daily bars but the gist of things because you have a lot of size to move around like an iguana,very slowly..so you look at a chart without lines, a blank canvas and in gist only ,you try to see it thru a very old,wise pair of eyes,not getting in and out on tiny breaks of supp/res but seeing the bigger slower moving picture,like the 4 seasons.....think of it in the largest players eyes and then whittle it down to your acct size and the amount you can afford to risk,as opposed to thinking of the size of your acct and getting in and out based on that,because scenario 2 has nothing to do with the market and that scenario is how all the small accts are wiped out
Great perspective--but that does not change the fact that there was no support for yesterday's daily low on that chart. That support came several days before. You can't just construct lines to make them fit wherever you want them to and claim support, AFTER it happens. We are still near that support, but yesterday's low was irrelevant on THAT chart. The saudi king you describe would be likely to buy anywhere I'd expect, he wasn't waiting for that support line to buy
Besides, he has more important things to do in his palace I'd expect 
The rebound =
July 13, 2011, 10:00 a.m. EDT
Bernanke lays out easing options
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - While the Federal Reserve believes that the temporary shocks holding down economic activity will pass, the central bank is examining several untested means to stimulate growth if conditions deteriorate, including another round of asset purchases, dubbed QE3, Fed chairman Ben Bernanke said Wednesday in remarks prepared for the House Financial Services Committee. Bernanke discussed three approaches to further easing in his prepared remarks. One option, Bernanke said, would be for the Fed to provide more "explicit guidance" to the pledge that rates will stay low for "an extended period." Another approach would be another round of asset purchases, or quantitative easing, or for the Fed to "increase the average maturity of our holdings." Finally, the Fed could also reduce the quarter percentage point rate of interest that it pays to banks on their reserves, "thereby putting downward pressure on short-term rates more generally." Bernanke was clear to stress that easing was not the only option under consideration and that the next Fed move could well be to tighten. At the moment, Fed officials see a recovery that "will likely remain moderate," Bernanke said, with the unemployment rate falling "only gradually." Inflation is expected to subside in coming months, he said.
ADD: BTW glad I took that profit while it was there. Shows you how quickly it can disappear.
July 13, 2011, 10:00 a.m. EDT
Bernanke lays out easing options
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - While the Federal Reserve believes that the temporary shocks holding down economic activity will pass, the central bank is examining several untested means to stimulate growth if conditions deteriorate, including another round of asset purchases, dubbed QE3, Fed chairman Ben Bernanke said Wednesday in remarks prepared for the House Financial Services Committee. Bernanke discussed three approaches to further easing in his prepared remarks. One option, Bernanke said, would be for the Fed to provide more "explicit guidance" to the pledge that rates will stay low for "an extended period." Another approach would be another round of asset purchases, or quantitative easing, or for the Fed to "increase the average maturity of our holdings." Finally, the Fed could also reduce the quarter percentage point rate of interest that it pays to banks on their reserves, "thereby putting downward pressure on short-term rates more generally." Bernanke was clear to stress that easing was not the only option under consideration and that the next Fed move could well be to tighten. At the moment, Fed officials see a recovery that "will likely remain moderate," Bernanke said, with the unemployment rate falling "only gradually." Inflation is expected to subside in coming months, he said.
ADD: BTW glad I took that profit while it was there. Shows you how quickly it can disappear.