CL Redux

What's up everyone.

I wish the CL traded like this all day every day, but man when the trend is clean and clear it is a great thing. I have been revisiting the idea of 50% retracements and "measured moves", and have been taking screen captures and jotting down notes. I don't think pullbacks like this can always be traded on their own, but when they line up with volume / price support and resistance, they make me pretty excited. What's pretty impressive is that a lot of these entries would be to the tick, with either no heat or like 2-3 ticks max. I hope you guys like the charts.

CL07-1189Tick6_17_2011_MM1.png


CL07-1189Tick6_17_2011_MM2.png


CL07-1189Tick6_17_2011_MM3.png


CL07-1189Tick6_17_2011_MM4.png


CL07-1189Tick6_17_2011_MM5.png


CL07-1189Tick6_17_2011_MM6.png
 
Josh,

i'm attaching my chart w/ my lines for your reference. it looks like we were on the same page for most part. my top diagonal line is from overnight high.

in the first case, i think you'd have been in a better position to not get stopped out if you had gotten in closer to the upper trend line as you had drawn in.

in 2nd case, i had drawn in a trendline from wednesday's low to the earlier morning low around a little after 4am and extended it. the afternoon low came pretty close to that trend line so that was the ideal closing spot. also, what i try to do is if the last 3 minute candle goes 50% against me, then i look to close especially in a fast dropping move like we had.

in 3rd case, if you drew a horizontal line from the low at 4am, you can see that it became support. it looks like you got stopped out right there.

of course in hindsight everything becomes clear. it's the process from painful moments like you had today that makes us to learn and become better.

add: the blue horizontal lines are pivot points, S1 & S2.
 

Attachments

Quote from brownsfan019:

You trail a stop so you can say - I can't lose! Then you get taken out (you think for a moment that your trail was brilliant b/c it just saved the trade from being a loser) and then you realize a few seconds or minutes later that your fear trail cost you real money. Your fear of losing prohibited you from getting good profits out of the trades.

Maybe you just need to set an OCO once you enter a trade - either your stop or profit is hit and end of story.
More...

Good stuff, thanks brownsfan. Assuming I am at the computer though, let's say my target is 80 ticks on a trade, initial stop is 15. If it gets into the +60 area and gives some warning signs that are possibly fakes but perhaps genuine reversal signals, it's hard for me to justify giving away perhaps 40 ticks to save 20. I know this is just one example, but that's my thought process and I realize that only experience in reading price and picking up on fakes versus real reversals will help, but is my logic here fundamentally flawed? Risk 40-50 to gain 20? Perhaps I should just read price better at the area and base the judgement on that. What are your thoughts?
 
Quote from DonCorleone:

Josh,

i'm attaching my chart w/ my lines for your reference. it looks like we were on the same page for most part. my top diagonal line is from overnight high.

in the first case, i think you'd have been in a better position to not get stopped out if you had gotten in closer to the upper trend line as you had drawn in.
More...

I considered this aggressive short, but unfortunately I had no confirmation at that point and the picture was not as clear. Shorting with confirmation was, as NoDoji said on another thread, a worse price for a higher probability. A tradeoff I still struggle to find the balance with.

Quote from DonCorleone:

in 3rd case, if you drew a horizontal line from the low at 4am, you can see that it became support. it looks like you got stopped out right there.
More...

Actually no, that was my original stop, partly for that reason (the globex low). I simply closed the trade early for +15. All 3 trades were winners, just not nearly enough.

Thanks for the chart and your observations!
 
Crude Oil Falls to Near a Four-Month Low on European Debt Crisis, Economy

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-...onth-low-on-european-debt-crisis-economy.html

Oil in New York traded in a $10 range for <b>more than five weeks until this week.</b>
- Futures stayed between $95.02 and $104.60 from May 9 through June 14.

The contract dipped below the 200- day moving average of $92.22 in intraday trading today for the first time since September.

“Oil has broken important support this week,” said Peter Beutel, the president of Cameron Hanover Inc., an energy advisory company in New Canaan, Connecticut. “We may be on course to test $85.”


- <b>The U.S. and China were responsible for 32 percent </b> of global oil demand in 2010, according to BP Plc’s Statistical Review of World Energy on June 8.
 
What a performance by Rory. 8 shot win -16 at the US Open. Incredible. Glad to see him win after what happened at the Masters.
 
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