CL Redux

Quote from EON Kid:

It would be helpful and educational to all if more people posted a chart or call of the obvious setups ahead of time, either longer term or short term setups/patterns

Notable mentions - Ammo, IV, RA, Big snack, keep it up :cool:
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If you look at an intraday chart for today, it looks like one of those double bottom thingys....:)

(I've gone long now, stop 200 points away).
 
Quote from schizo:

For the time being, placing a stop on the entire package at 107.60
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Moving the stop up to 108.25
Price target lowered to 103.10

Not feeling particularly good about this trade. :mad:
 
News Wire prices

Hi guys ,

I am thinking about real time news wire service for CRUDE OIL , what are the different ones along with prices and your experiences GOOD/BAD . I am not able to find on web.

if you are using different real time news wires , and you think it is covering enough for CRUDE OIL markets , mention it please .

some of you are using Dow jones news wire (based on posts ) , let me know the costs . I could not find on the web site, seems pricey .

if not to this post , you can send me Private Message PMs.

I used Esignal Future station long time ago , some thing like $150/month . news quality seems OK
 
Libya group agrees 'trust fund' for rebels
International contact group calls on Gaddafi to step down to "allow Libyan people to determine their own future".

http://english.aljazeera.net/news/africa/2011/04/20114134730363347.html

In a statement issued at the conclusion of Wednesday's one-day summit in Doha, Qatar, the group united to call on Libya's longterm leader Muammar Gaddafi to step down.

"Gaddafi and his regime has lost all legitimacy and he must leave power allowing the Libyan people to determine their own future," the group said.

The financial mechanism being set up will allow international donations to be made directly available to Gaddafi's opponents - possibly from frozen assets of the Gaddafi administration.


Click here for more on our special coverage

The group warned that up to 3.6 million people in Libya could require humanitarian assistance as the result of weeks of fighting in the country.

<b>Free individual</b>

Koussa, the most prominent Libyan government defector, sought refuge in Britain on March 30. A friend said he quit in protest at attacks on civilians by Gaddafi's forces.

The former spy chief was questioned by Scottish police over the 1988 Lockerbie airliner bombing, which killed 270 people, but the British government said he was now free to travel.

In his first public statement since arriving in Britain, Koussa told the BBC on Monday his country could become "a new Somalia" unless all sides involved in the conflict stopped it from descending into civil war.
 
Quote from Visaria:

I have no idea about triangles, wedges etc. I was simply tracking the price as it was falling, realising there was a major support level at 655, and if it took it out, there might just be a good move down.

NoDoji, do you make money every day? My aim, from intraday trading, is to make at least 100 ticks per WEEK. I lost money last week, but have recovered it plus more this week.
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I'm a noob, but I think 100 ticks per week is a fine goal. A person who can sustain that for 20 years can make a metric shitload.
 
Man, I should write a book called "How to be Right about Market Direction but Still Lose Money." I swear I'd be a rich mofo if I could just get out of my own way and let my correct predictions about market direction work themselves out.
 
Quote from Visaria:

NoDoji, do you make money every day? My aim, from intraday trading, is to make at least 100 ticks per WEEK. I lost money last week, but have recovered it plus more this week.
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Yes. CL provides so many high probability opportunities each day that as long as you trade with the trend, or off confirmed trend reversal signals, and cut the losses early, even a few back-to-back losses can be recovered with the very next trade. (And that occasionally happens in choppy price action.) The biggest hurdles are psychological. Mismanaging a nice winner because you just had 2 or 3 losers, for example.

Or moving stops too quickly when a trade goes in your favor. I was discussing with a friend recently the common habit of moving stops to break even too quickly. If we put on a trade with a .20 stop loss and price quickly starts running against us, do we instantly cut the trade off for a .11 loss instead of the full loss? I doubt it! But a trade runs several ticks in our favor right out of the gate and many of us (or maybe just me) have an instinctive urge to move the stop to break even so we can't lose. Unfortunately we can lose, because price action is dynamic and wiggles back and forth within those nice clean closed price bars we see on the static chart at the end of the day, and if we cut our nice winning trades short, and let our losing trades hit full loss, we lose. In breakout or momentum-type trades where a next level must be broken quickly for the trade to remain valid, moving stops quickly is fine, but any other type of trade should be allowed to run until it hits target or a reversal setup appears.

From catching several of your trade posts, you seem to trade price action very similar to the way I do. If you trade all your setups, no hesitating and over-analyzing, and you cut the losers quickly and let the winners run (even if price starts to retrace into the red a bit), you should EASILY attain your goal.

Quote from bigsnack:

All I do with CL is watch for volume spikes / increases, and then wait for a break of the current trend line that is in play.
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I like your style of trading trend line breaks. How to you manage risk on your trades (stop placement, basically)?
 
Here is add-on to conspiracy theory
---------------------------------------

after the fact analysis of todays price RUNUP at close:
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- As of yesterday ton of people must have bought PUTS for strikes 106 and below, who are the SELLERS of these puts , you guessed it our big traders.
- now to make those 106 and below strike PUTS under water , we need price action that is 107 level , I think our big traders did this for this today with the RUNUP.
- BTW CL MAY options expire on Thursday

- NOw coming to tomorrow , moring action will be on the higher side around 108 , causing some CALL buys for 107 , 108 . Once our big traders sell these calls tomorrow morning , they can close the day below 106 level making both CALLS and PUTS expire worth less and pocket all the money.

- the other theory for tomorrow close below 106 is to make alternate UP DAY on Friday .
- this option expire theory and Friday UP day theory are fitting together well in this SCHEME.

Overnight session theory
-----------------
- if you guys noticed after hours monday actioin bascically Tuesday early hours price pulled back to 108.20 almost $2 from monday lows.
- to me this $108 seems setup pull up , just for the purpose to TRAP new LONG on Tuesday ( only to see Tuesday close around 106 )
- If we go by this theory , today night action should bring price to 108.50 level so that it will be easy to TRAP new LONG 4/14 morning to close EOD 4/14 below 106 .

It looks I am cooking too much conspiracy theory , But I call it strategic plan spanning 2 to 3 days with major coming events in mind this is HELPING me in my trading.

This is NOT 100% sure plan, CL price changes with many external factors such as STOCK market/EURUSD , middle east. Assume all the external factors are SAME tomorrow the above THEORY is one possibility .


Guys comment one way or the other , I do not have ego so I won't mind critic view of my theory.



- let us see what will happen .

Quote from InvestVision:

we got 1/ ( hey you guys have to give me some credit , I said 106.90 close when price was 106 and we are looking at 105 downside or at best 106.45 ) :p

more likely get we 2/ and 3/ . may not be exact same close prices as prediction but 50 ticks here and there.

here is my conspiracy theory :D

a/ CL does alternating PUMP/DUMP generally , so this pattern is a natural fit for CL and this will fit well FRIDAY UP close theory .

b/ Goldman sachs gave sell call unilaterally and sold all his/clients at higher prices, but other big traders did not sell theirs, they are upset about it.
So they wanted to pull up few dollars to change general public mood and scare shorts . Once many shorts are closed they pull up ( as they did today ) they can offload their LONGs
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Quote from InvestVision: 04-13-11 10:00 AM

one possible pattern ( basically alternating )

1/ today close 106.90
2/ tomorrow close 104.50
3/ friday close 107.50
 
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