CL Redux

Quote from pauk:

But no losers :eek:
You must have the holy grail. Love to see live posts from you.
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Hi Pauk,

You had some nice trades going on yesterday, though your stops are out of my league. I would suggest if you put on a counter-trend trade, consider a stop and reverse the moment price pivots back in the direction of the trend. I think you had a trade long in a down trending move yesterday around 8:45am ET, and when 111.62 held as triple resistance, stop and reverse close to your break even point and you'll often get a great trade out of the reversal.

My Holy Grail is trend-following and aggressive risk management.

I mostly enter trades in the direction of price movement (like on that long you took, I wouldn't be long unless price broke 111.63), so the majority of my losing trades are the result of traps/headfakes where I buy a high tick or sell a low tick and they mainly occur on counter-trend trades, at trend reversal zones, or in ranges.

I usually wait for some kind of confirmation before trading against a prevailing trend. Then if I do take the trade, I have a rule that my stop is moved to break-even after 10 ticks in my favor on counter-trend trades, which keeps me out of trouble.

Once yesterday's early down trend showed signs of reversing, my only shorts were (eastern time):

10:17 sh @ 111.35, 10:25 cvr @ 111.34 (this was a trend reversal zone, so I was compelled to continue to trade short setups until price confirmed a trend reversal)

11:04 sh @ 111.61, 11:16 cvr @ 111.60 (this was pure counter-trend based on a 1-tick fbo of the 8:10 pivot high of 111.74)

1:40 sh @ 112.38, 1:58 cvr @ 112.36 (this was based on a double top formation at new highs and all I wanted was a .20 ride to the 20-bar EMA and the trend was just too strong for price to run that last 5 ticks)

I don't post live any more because I found that I'm far more focused and aggressive when I have no distractions. I usually don't read the thread at all until after the pit close, or if price is in a serious "ugh" formation and I'm bored waiting for something to happen.

optiontimer, I agree that the big money is long and has no reason to sell other than to take a little off the table during pushes to new highs, and then buy right back in on the dips.

The 60-min bar lows are good dip buying targets. Watch for support at or near those levels, also pullbacks to the 60-min 20-bar EMA. Thursday when price was breaking down with the market on the Japan quake news, CL found support @ 108.40, just 2 ticks above the next 60-min bar low in line to be tested.
 
Quote from Picaso:

Yes, several times went through the cycle: (very) profitable in demo, then a thousand cuts live...

long .89

fuck, no, didn't get filled (stop-limit) :(


... previous cycle problem was hesitating to enter and thus either entering late and being stopped out or missing trades altogether, then getting pissed off and stopping trading (to avoid going in tilt, which was the previous cycle :D )... this cycle seems to be - to me - mostly tinkering with already tight stops due to being (now) seriously underfunded (very little work over the last couple of years, paying expenses off my savings).

:(

Might go next week in an all-or-nothing trade (as in 70 tick stop, close at the end of the day if not hit - repeat until either profitable or under 5,000)
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Picaso if you are profitable in sim then obviously the issues are psychological. Can you do a day of sim trades on here?

Secondly switching to the QM will not solve any problems. QM will tick rape you and give you even more no fills, which will only reinforce the negative feedback loop. Switch to the QM only if you are employing a larger intraday swing strategy.

If you are consistently profitable in sim then your subconscious believes it, there is no conflict with your strategy.

Hesitating, entering late, moving stops taking profits early is all fear related. You need to get that inner voice (fear) under control. By now it has constructed a labyrinth of smoke and mirrors.

Look into what Rande Howell says about fear

-You have to learn to control the emotion of fear. Identify it , confront and control it.

-The best way to do this is start a breathing practice, fear causes you to hold your breath or start panting.

-You can take stressful situations and train yourself to trigger to calm. (Trader Vic has a couple of pages on this in the Psych section)

-The brain cannot tell the difference between fear and uncertainty, it has been biologically wired for fear. Embrace uncertainty, remove the fear.

-Once your brain figures out a way to avoid fear it locks it into a pattern and that pattern literally becomes the way you see, you don't even have to think. It creates the thinking that you do, it has no interest in you thriving it has every interest in you surviving.

-Fear creates a comfort zone and the moment you try to get out of that comfort zone it will pull you back in.

http://www.tradersstateofmind.com/articles/article/7367349/148133.htm

Im just taking a stab here and maybe someone like Redneck can help you.

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The Other End of the Spectrum: What does your Psyche Do during Trading?
Think out loud while trading. Record three (3) 10-15 minute segments of your voice speaking whatever thoughts or feelings occur while trading. Make this as unedited as possible. In other words, the “stream of consciousness” is what we need to get. (Remember, no one but you needs to hear this. It is for your own private use.)

Use Audacity, OneNote or a tape recorder.

Listen to each segment at least once

Make notes about the following (Remember, these boxes expand)
Are there any particular words noticeably repeated?
What thoughts occur more than 1 time?
What types of feelings are expressed?
What kinds of things does that “voice in the back of your head say?”
Are there any names or labels you give yourself?


Fill in the Blanks

When I get into a trade, I think ________________________

When I enter a trade, I feel

When a trade moves against me, I think

When I think I will be stopped out, I feel
 
Quote from optiontimer:

Anticipated resistance at $111 target was non-existent. Next target is $120.50 - $121
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can't argue..... but was wondering for all the chart analyst out there...IF (granted very big if) there is a break in the upside trend , in looking at your chart would 90's then be an area of support?
 
Quote from EON Kid:

Secondly switching to the QM will not solve any problems. QM will tick rape you and give you even more no fills, which will only reinforce the negative feedback loop. Switch to the QM only if you are employing a larger intraday swing strategy.
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I totally agree with this assessment.
 
Quote from EON Kid:

The Other End of the Spectrum: What does your Psyche Do during Trading?

What kinds of things does that “voice in the back of your head say?”

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Good stuff, EON.

I remember when I first defined in great detail my prime setups with rules for entry, stop and target. I'd completed months of daily analysis to come up with a system that had a strong edge in my favor and optimal risk management. Yet I still struggled to trade all the valid setups that presented each day.

I dd start talking to myself out loud and it really helped me get over the whole hesitating/picking and choosing issues, because I'd hear myself saying the kinds of things that kept me out of good trades after I'd get frustrated by weak or failed trades.

Here are some of the non-productive thoughts I used to have as a setup formed in real time:

"Why are people buying this thing after that bearish news? I'm going to wait for a short signal." (And price trends up solidly for the next 2 hours before consolidating.)

"Wow, another short setup. It's been falling all day and it's down 2 points, it just can't go much lower in one day. I'll wait for a long setup." (And price suddenly falls almost another point in less than 10 minutes.)

"The last two breakouts were pretty weak and all I got was a scratch and a loss out of them. I'll wait and see what happens on this one. It's probably going to reverse soon." (And the breakout is huge, running .50 right out of the gate.)

*******

Here are some of the negative thoughts I used to have to fill in those blanks:

Fill in the Blanks

When I get into a trade, I think "Please get green right away so I can move my stop and prevent a loss."

When I enter a trade, I feel "nervous".

When a trade moves against me, I think "It'll probably stop me out and then go right back my way."

When I think I will be stopped out, I feel "like I should move my stop further away because it will probably turn around not far from where I get stopped out."

A big difference for me now is that (with the exception of breakout trades) I know that on almost all the trades that eventually hit profit target, price tends to run from green to red and back one or more times before heading to target, so moving a stop to break even as soon as the position is in the green is counter-productive.

I also know that if I'm stopped out (especially on a counter-trend trade or a with-trend trade following a long trending move), the stop level is often a great reversal signal and I will stop-and-reverse to end up with a net profit between the two trades. (Not recommended in choppy ranges!)
 
Could someone post (or send by PM) a chart of the pit session for 3/29/11. I am trading only ES at present so I have no access to CL data. NoDoji has, in another forum, posted some setups for that date that I would like to take a detailed look at.

I think ES is a pain in the ass but I am learning PA -- step by step -- following Al Brooks' approach and for the moment it is simply easier to follow him in ES which is his primary market. That said CL is the future for me. It has characteristics that are quite seductive. I hope referring to a futures contract as seductive is not too perverse ... but hey, that is how it strikes me!

Thanks
 
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