this is very true.. and I learned it the hard way
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CL Redux
- Thread starter schizo
- Start date
this is very true.. and I learned it the hard way
<< so for today 105 close , Reuters says Yemen/dollar falls
and one analyst says part of US crude financials play at expiry ( ( as WTI rose $1 moe than Brunt )
>>
Oil rises as Yemen unrest escalates, dollar falls
http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/03/22/us-markets-oil-idUSTRE72D01W20110322
(Reuters) - Oil prices rose on Tuesday as unrest in Yemen threatened to crimp energy exports from the Gulf region and potentially spill over into neighboring Saudi Arabia.
0/ French oil giant Total (TOTF.PA) warned buyers of liquefied natural gas from its Yemen LNG project that shipments from the country could face cuts due to escalating political unrest, although they remain normal for now.
Thousands of Yemeni protesters took to the streets on Tuesday,
clamoring for President Ali Abdullah Saleh to step down. Several top officials have already abandoned Saleh, who warned that his country would descend into civil war if he were forced to quit.
Yemen, which borders top oil exporter Saudi Arabia to the north, pumps around 290,000 barrels per day of oil, largely for export, and ships 0.9 billion cubic feet per day of LNG, about 9 percent as much as top LNG exporter Qatar.
1/ Brent crude for May rose 74 cents to settle at $115.70 a barrel. U.S. crude futures for April rose $1.67 to settle at $104 a barrel in light volume on the contract's expiration day. The more active May contract settled up $1.88 a barrel at $104.97.
U.S. oil futures handily outpaced European Brent, narrowing the transatlantic spread.
"Generally, Middle East tensions would strengthen Brent," said Bill O'Grady at Confluence Investment Management in St. Louis. "But the U.S. expiration trade has become really choppy, with a lot of financial players trying to figure out how to play this market and maybe some short-covering going on."
2/ U.S. crude futures broke above a key technical resistance level, clearing the way for a run higher, as momentum builds for a challenge of the year high near $107 a barrel.
Oil rose even as stock markets fell, snapping a three-day winning streak, with trading volumes across U.S. equities markets hitting a 2011 low.
and one analyst says part of US crude financials play at expiry ( ( as WTI rose $1 moe than Brunt )
>>
Oil rises as Yemen unrest escalates, dollar falls
http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/03/22/us-markets-oil-idUSTRE72D01W20110322
(Reuters) - Oil prices rose on Tuesday as unrest in Yemen threatened to crimp energy exports from the Gulf region and potentially spill over into neighboring Saudi Arabia.
0/ French oil giant Total (TOTF.PA) warned buyers of liquefied natural gas from its Yemen LNG project that shipments from the country could face cuts due to escalating political unrest, although they remain normal for now.
Thousands of Yemeni protesters took to the streets on Tuesday,
clamoring for President Ali Abdullah Saleh to step down. Several top officials have already abandoned Saleh, who warned that his country would descend into civil war if he were forced to quit.
Yemen, which borders top oil exporter Saudi Arabia to the north, pumps around 290,000 barrels per day of oil, largely for export, and ships 0.9 billion cubic feet per day of LNG, about 9 percent as much as top LNG exporter Qatar.
1/ Brent crude for May rose 74 cents to settle at $115.70 a barrel. U.S. crude futures for April rose $1.67 to settle at $104 a barrel in light volume on the contract's expiration day. The more active May contract settled up $1.88 a barrel at $104.97.
U.S. oil futures handily outpaced European Brent, narrowing the transatlantic spread.
"Generally, Middle East tensions would strengthen Brent," said Bill O'Grady at Confluence Investment Management in St. Louis. "But the U.S. expiration trade has become really choppy, with a lot of financial players trying to figure out how to play this market and maybe some short-covering going on."
2/ U.S. crude futures broke above a key technical resistance level, clearing the way for a run higher, as momentum builds for a challenge of the year high near $107 a barrel.
Oil rose even as stock markets fell, snapping a three-day winning streak, with trading volumes across U.S. equities markets hitting a 2011 low.
good read for somebody who interested in bigger picture of OIL
Factbox: Bullish and bearish factors behind the oil price
http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/03/22/us-oil-factors-idUSTRE72L2MT20110322
Factbox: Bullish and bearish factors behind the oil price
http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/03/22/us-oil-factors-idUSTRE72L2MT20110322
Cost of Libyan operation
http://money.cnn.com/2011/03/22/news/economy/libya_cost/index.htm
1/ To date, the United States has spent some $225 million firing Tomahawk missiles, according to CNN estimates based on U.S. Navy figures.
The cost could reach up to $800 million to fully establish the no-fly zone and
another $100 million a week to maintain it going forward,
said Zack Cooper, a senior analyst for the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments
2/ To pay part of the tab for intervention in Libya, the United States is hoping to lean on other nations, especially oil rich Persian Gulf countries that have indicated financial support, according to a top State Department official who testified before Congress last week.
3/ The costs are mounting. The price tag to replace the fighter jet that went down Tuesday with a top model could run between $100 million and $150 million, Cooper said. And fuel prices for each jet runs $10,000 an hour.
4/ The Pentagon said it's not able to give an official cost estimate so far. The Obama administration says it is funding operations in Libya from existing budgets.
The current budget for war spending is about $150 billion.
5/ Defense spending, in inflation adjusted terms, is higher than at any time since the end of World War II, and the United States now spends six times as much as China, the country with the next biggest budget.
http://money.cnn.com/2011/03/22/news/economy/libya_cost/index.htm
1/ To date, the United States has spent some $225 million firing Tomahawk missiles, according to CNN estimates based on U.S. Navy figures.
The cost could reach up to $800 million to fully establish the no-fly zone and
another $100 million a week to maintain it going forward,
said Zack Cooper, a senior analyst for the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments
2/ To pay part of the tab for intervention in Libya, the United States is hoping to lean on other nations, especially oil rich Persian Gulf countries that have indicated financial support, according to a top State Department official who testified before Congress last week.
3/ The costs are mounting. The price tag to replace the fighter jet that went down Tuesday with a top model could run between $100 million and $150 million, Cooper said. And fuel prices for each jet runs $10,000 an hour.
4/ The Pentagon said it's not able to give an official cost estimate so far. The Obama administration says it is funding operations in Libya from existing budgets.
The current budget for war spending is about $150 billion.
5/ Defense spending, in inflation adjusted terms, is higher than at any time since the end of World War II, and the United States now spends six times as much as China, the country with the next biggest budget.
Here is the fundamental case supporting below mentioned DOGI bar case
- Think about it , it is the price you are settling to deliver next month this time , sure you want to sell it to high price , given middle east unrest going on ..
- sellers who are SHORT on APRIL contract , have to close Tuesday , so upside pressure on price
- as this buying cooled off on Tuesday, new shorts on MAY contract will start at these 105 levels ( big private funds who are short term day trading like focus )
so all in all fundamental case is supporting DOWNBar Wednesday close so is chart technical pattern .
Let us see what happens ...
- Think about it , it is the price you are settling to deliver next month this time , sure you want to sell it to high price , given middle east unrest going on ..
- sellers who are SHORT on APRIL contract , have to close Tuesday , so upside pressure on price
- as this buying cooled off on Tuesday, new shorts on MAY contract will start at these 105 levels ( big private funds who are short term day trading like focus )
so all in all fundamental case is supporting DOWNBar Wednesday close so is chart technical pattern .
Let us see what happens ...
Quote from InvestVision:
Quote from InvestVision:
DOGI bar (yesterday ) in UPTrend environment , followed by 2.5% UPBar today
- if no major events tomorrow count it as close as DownBar , then rally continues next day onwards ..
daily chart http://bit.ly/dRMNwG
short 105.24 (SL @ 105.39, new high)