CL Redux

Quote from BCE:

I always use this example when I'm trying to explain to people some possibilities of trading futures. :) I tell them that crude oil spiked up to $147 in 2008 and then 7 months later sold off to $32 per barrel. If you shorted 10 contracts at the high and didn't even trade it, but just held it and covered at the low this would be a 115 point move.

115 points x 10 contracts = 1150 points

1150 points x $1000 per point = $1,150,000

And you wouldn't even need that much money to put on the original trade.

I had my short order in at 148 and just missed being filled and predicted it would drop to 33. I was a little off...................... kidding :p

I remember reading an article as oil was hitting the 140's about how traders were buying up large quantities of distant contracts (2015 I believe was the big mover) assuming oil was going to top $200. Now, oil may very well top $200 by the time those contracts expire, but could you hold through that drawdown? :eek:

Timing is everything!
 
Quote from NoDoji:

Great post, big hurdle to overcome when starting out. I was doing this all the time, and finally decided to have my husband write an automated program using my basic strategies because if I couldn't learn how to trade ALL my signals as soon as they occurred, then I'd have a system do it for me. He worked on a program and I began a long stretch of hard statistical analysis of the 5-min chart every day after the close. I'd scroll the chart all the way back in time so it looked exactly like it did in real-time. I developed specific rules for setups, entry, and exit, and do my bar-by-bar analysis, logging everything in a spreadsheet.

The automated system in its earliest beta state proved to me that even if I traded like a dumbass robot, with no discretion whatsoever, no regard for trend or moving averages, no knowledge of major news releases such as crude inventories and non-farm payrolls, and the crudest kindergarten rules possible, I'd still be slightly net profitable each week.

My daily analysis proved to me that if I traded according to my carefully defined rules, and traded all valid setups, I'd be nicely net profitable. The most important lesson from these months of analysis was learning to recognize valid setups as they were forming, when they are often rather ugly and indecisive-looking.


Price again wiggles here. This is where nervous traders grab their 15-20 ticks, call it a trade, then whine when it runs further without them.

But there are key levels still cleanly in play and no reversal signal. We have 103.40, 103.49 and then the high.
Wonderful post yourself. :) As far as "This is where nervous traders grab their 15-20 ticks, call it a trade, then whine when it runs further without them." The first part did describe some of my trades on Friday. Being new to trading this contract and considering the volatility this last week, especially the last few days, I was happy to scalp it and get what I could. And there was so much backing and filling I didn't want to have it retrace the whole move back to my entry which it did several times. The other thing is, it didn't necessarily seem to be reaching "key levels" which were "still cleanly in play". Remember your post?:

Quote from NoDoji:

Tell me, WTF was so "dippity-do-buy-me-right-this-minute-or-never-see-this-bargain-price-again" about 103.32? :p

ADD: Hmmm, looking at it here, maybe that IS the bargain price from now on out and we should go all in and target $108.

I thought about this more yesterday and today, as far as strategy goes. The way it's trading I'm tempted to take the 20 tick profit and then immediately reenter on a 10 tick pullback maybe, in certain situations. This is difficult of course and you need to be really on top of it and quick. Not sure how well this would work. And of course if it pulled back 5 ticks and then broke much higher you'd miss it. It moves so fast.

But there was one trade where I entered, wherever it was, and I could see it just stall, and in retrospect I should have just checked out right there or maybe moved the stop up to a 5 tick loss rather than the 10 tick loss I took. Another possibility would be to flip it, but that can be dangerous. Depends on the situation and where price is in relation to support and resistance levels.

In this mix is my unfamiliarity, although growing familiarity, with this contact and how it trades, the super volatility lately, and also on the other side is my own trading experience just "feeling" the price movements in the SuperDOM. If you've traded a lot a lot of times you can feel and see price stalling out and get ready to pullback when it has been going up or get ready to just fall and selloff when it's trying to rebound maybe or hold a support level. Or getting ready to breakout. Or other movements. It's the pulse, so to speak, of price movement.

As far as the "then whine when it runs further without them", that wouldn't be me. Not sure if you aimed that at me or included me in that meaning it as constructive criticism. Quoting myself:

Quote from BCE:

L 103.71

Close 103.91

Ooooops! On it's way to 106 :)

Just scalping. :)

ADD Hey I only left 30 ticks on the table. :p Make that 40 so far. Oooops! :p

Are we having fun today? :D

And

Quote from BCE:

Aren't you supposed to sell and close your position just as it breaks out? No? I'll be filling up your new thread ND. :D

This of course isn't whining at all. The sticking out my tongue emoticon gives this away. It's me acknowledging that I am learning to trade this contract and not being down on myself for not doing it perfectly. It's me saying to myself, "Great entry, but next time maybe give it a little more of a chance to move even more in your favor." I aim to have fun and not overly dramatize anything that happens. I'm happy when things go my way. Roll with the punches when they don't. And learn from both so I'll do even better going forward.
 
Exactly...I don't think anyone would argue the move both up and down threw the economy into the tank which we have only recently began to drag ourselves out of. Which is why I am hopeful the current powers that be realize they can NOT afford volatility in oil over several months. There is a lot they CAN do to stabilize the price of oil but it will take a cohesive (gov and private) and coordinated effort to do so. Obviously the oil traders don't believe they can!

edit...sorry.. referring to ND post about timing
 
Quote from InvestVision:

this is exactly what is hindsight bias :- )

even today such opportunities exits , examaple stocks 'Block Buster' if you shorted 7 months ago , ' Circuit city ' stock same case few year ago .

Every year there is potential for 100 companies to go bankrupt but only 10 companies goes bankrupt , you do not know which one go, but is easy only in the hindsight ... :D
That's it exactly. CSW = Coulda, Shoulda, Woulda. :)
 
Quote from NoDoji:

I remember reading an article as oil was hitting the 140's about how traders were buying up large quantities of distant contracts (2015 I believe was the big mover) assuming oil was going to top $200. Now, oil may very well top $200 by the time those contracts expire, but could you hold through that drawdown? :eek:

Timing is everything!
Exactly! GS I remember was calling $200 a barrel crude. Remember that? Glad I didn't short it at 32 with the thought "This can go to $16. I'll just give it time and not be shaken out of my position." :)
 
Quote from InvestVision:

this is exactly what is hindsight bias :- )

even today such opportunities exits , examaple stocks 'Block Buster' if you shorted 7 months ago , ' Circuit city ' stock same case few year ago .

Every year there is potential for 100 companies to go bankrupt but only 10 companies goes bankrupt , you do not know which one go, but is easy only in the hindsight ... :D

Quote from BCE:

That's it exactly. CSW = Coulda, Shoulda, Woulda. :)
Of course another point though is Paul Tudor Jones said he had his greatest trading success and biggest profits at the points where the market turned. If you can just catch it right. Thought about this. Someone here, I remember but forgot, talked about entering trades again and again until they had it right. That might work. Small losses and then a staying-in-the-position, ride-it-for-all-it's-worth hold once you're on the right side of the trade. Turtle traders did something like that. This might work especially well on a counter-trend trade after an extended trend with a climactic parabolic blow off top or crash followed by a key reversal day.

Remember we were talking about holding winning trades longer for greater profits a while back and still do today. I do want to work on that. It can and does make you a little nervous with all of the volatility lately and all of the market changing breaking news being released so constantly.
 
One other point FWIW, all of my trades were long on Friday. IV you had some nice shorts off of resistance levels. I was too chicken. :p
 
Quote from RichardRimes:

Exactly...I don't think anyone would argue the move both up and down threw the economy into the tank which we have only recently began to drag ourselves out of. Which is why I am hopeful the current powers that be realize they can NOT afford volatility in oil over several months. There is a lot they CAN do to stabilize the price of oil but it will take a cohesive (gov and private) and coordinated effort to do so. Obviously the oil traders don't believe they can!

edit...sorry.. referring to ND post about timing
We knew you were referring to ND's post.

Something that I thought about the other day too is that if this goes "too high" again there may well be talk of more regulation of oil traders. And talk of how they're just driving up the price on speculation, etc. And actually I'm already hearing that talk again. There's the risk premium aspect, etc. I hope they don't mess with us.
 
on Al Jazeera live the trailer is saying the US is considering tapping strategic oil reserves to counter the high oil prices. This is certainly an option but I didn't think the US would do it unless turmoil really got out of control. thoughts?
 
Quote from RichardRimes:

on Al Jazeera live the trailer is saying the US is considering tapping strategic oil reserves to counter the high oil prices. This is certainly an option but I didn't think the US would do it unless turmoil really got out of control. thoughts?

Al Jazeera speaks out of it's ass. The SPR is for an actual oil shortage we are flush with oil I bath in it :D No matter what happens all these countries will still produce oil, why don't these oil companies hire their own army to keep these neanderthals from interfering with business. That being said the market does what it does I just hope things don't get out of hand an ruin this business for all of us by causing some shoot from the hip regulations.

Why doesn't China send some ninjas to go kill Gadhafi they can't be happy about this mess either?
 
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