out 92.05
CL Redux
- Thread starter schizo
- Start date
out 92.05
Good one!
I was just looking at my chart after being offline and it was registering in the low 91's. Now the data won't update. Ha.
Can only laugh although it's been costly. Sometimes that's the way it goes. They're going to reconstruct my license key info so it works in the morning. Hopefully that will do it for a while. Or maybe by the time they fix it they won't be using oil any more and everything will be solar and electric. I hear you. Those are really great points. I see now after watching it some that CL is different. Marches to it's own drum beat.Quote from NoDoji:
No problem, I've been working on some strategic tweaking very recently and today I started taking notes again as I was trading, so it wasn't too much extra work to find the entry bars and place the dots on the chart.
From my own experience as a long-time counter-trend trader, the most difficult hurdle to get over is the pullback entry. During a pullback in a trend, I always feel as if the trend is now over and I'm crazy to be thinking of trading back in that "other" direction
There's a low-grade edginess as I wait for the proper entry point, as I worry that I'll either be getting in too soon, or not soon enough. I have fixed guideposts such as the 20-bar moving average, but in a strong trend forget it. I posted a 3-min chart and even in that small time frame price never pulled back to the 20 for most of the pullback entries on the way up, other than for the initial confirmed reversal signal.
The other problem is the more a trending move runs, the more it feels like price has gone too far and has to reverse. But I'm learning that trend-followers (and trend-following automated systems) are a rabid and tenacious bunch. They are truly the pit bulls of the trading world and do not give up easily. Every time I've had "too high" or "too low" disease, I missed the best move. I think the more you believe price has gone too far, the more powerful the next breakout will be, so just hold your nose and position yourself for it, and then resume breathing again as you watch your P/L get greener.
A true seasoned trend-follower would've been long on that early reversal signal this morning and would've been adding to the winner all the way up, but I don't trust CL one bit, having seen it suddenly and inexplicably retrace an entire multi-leg trend in no time at all, so I prefer to trade in chunks, rather than risk giving back a whole lot of profit. The way I see it is I can always get back in as long as I stay focused and aggressive.
And I think what you're saying about it "running too far" is the reason why we tend to think that these are good counter-trend trades. It just looks that way to us. This contract in particular seems to validate what you're saying. Just when you think it's topped out or run too far, it runs even higher. Or just when you think it's bottomed out, it sells off more. Like you say it takes discipline to keep with it and hold your position or buy a pullback or sell into a rally attempt in a downtrend. Comes with experience I think. I'm still learning. As I mentioned before it can help to do some sim trades and let them go and this can show you what happens when you don't overtrade and overanalyze. But then, of course, at some point there are obviously actual reversals too. Working on good strategies too to trade these movements.
I have been trading TF and I know that one pretty well. I'm actually pretty good at finding good counter-trend entries after a big selloff. So that's different than finding a pullback in an uptrend. Like you say, if you get in too early you either lose some money or you may be entering before it's really bottomed. But if you wait too long you miss the rebound or a good chunk of it. I'm pretty good at catching the first pullback. But then it could be it hasn't bottomed yet. You get a feel for which is which by really tuning into the price levels in the Super DOM. But with CL I'd be more cautious too as it's more volatile and, to me at least, less predictable. Maybe that's just because I don't know it yet. They all trade so differently. Even the Index futures have their own personalities.
Going to catch a a light dinner and then off to bed. Have a good night all. See you tomorrow.
I'm sure many of you have read this blog but if anyone hasn't these guys are pretty insightful using a combo of fundamental and technical analysis. I know I like to trade in a bubble but when I'm bored in the morning it gives me something to do.
http://crudeoiltrader.blogspot.com/
http://crudeoiltrader.blogspot.com/
My earlier scalp was short. Glad I took a small profit. Tempted to short it again right here. So much for the counter-trend discussion. Just looking at the price action.Gets a bit unclear. Just the way they hammered it down at .30 it looked really weak and they were selling it off. Was imagining 90.50. But then it ramped right up. Would have done better buying the bottom rather than trying to short into it. Hmmm.